How Byron Buxton’s Slower Bat Speed May Have Unlocked a Better Home Run Hitter

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Byron Buxton is putting together a stretch unlike anything Twins fans have seen from him before. The center fielder's recent power binge isn't just impressive by modern standards. It is historic when viewed through the lens of franchise history.

Over the last month and a half, Buxton has joined a group that includes Harmon Killebrew, Kent Hrbek, Brian Dozier, and Nelson Cruz—some of the most prolific home run hitters ever to wear a Twins uniform. As he continues launching baseballs at a remarkable rate, the conversation is beginning to shift from whether Buxton can stay healthy to just how high his ceiling might be this season.

A Slow Start Gave Way to an Explosive Turnaround

It wasn't long ago that Buxton looked completely out of sync at the plate. Through his first 14 games of the season, he failed to hit a home run while slashing just .182/.258/.273 (.531). He collected only four extra-base hits during that span and posted a 17-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For a player expected to carry Minnesota's lineup, it was an alarming start.

The sluggish beginning was largely attributed to his participation in the World Baseball Classic. While representing Team USA provided a unique opportunity, it also disrupted his normal spring routine. Buxton returned from the tournament with fewer traditional spring training at-bats than usual and appeared to spend the opening weeks of the regular season searching for his timing.

For most players, a rough two-week stretch isn't noteworthy. For Buxton, however, it now serves as a dramatic contrast to what has followed.

Baseball's Hottest Power Hitter

Since that slow start, Buxton has transformed into arguably the most dangerous power hitter in baseball. Over his last 44 games, he has crushed 20 home runs while slashing .279/.337/.645 (.981). During that stretch, no hitter in baseball owns a higher slugging percentage. In fact, Buxton's mark sits 28 points ahead of the next closest player. The only hitter who has matched his 20 home runs during that timeframe is Kyle Schwarber, and Schwarber needed six more games to reach the same total.

What's perhaps most impressive is that Buxton hasn't produced these numbers while operating at full strength. He has already missed time because of both hip and shoulder issues, reminders of the physical challenges that have followed him throughout his career. Even while battling through those ailments, he has continued to punish opposing pitchers at a historic pace.

Joining Some of the Greatest Power Surges in Twins History

Buxton's recent stretch becomes even more impressive when viewed against more than six decades of Twins history. Only four other Twins hitters have recorded a stretch of more than 20 home runs across a 45-game span:

• Harmon Killebrew in 1964
• Kent Hrbek in 1987
• Brian Dozier in 2016
• Nelson Cruz in 2019

That's elite company. Killebrew finished the 1964 season with 49 home runs, still the highest single-season total in franchise history. Hrbek launched 34 homers while helping lead Minnesota to its first World Series championship in 1987.

Dozier authored one of the most memorable offensive seasons by a Twins infielder when he blasted a career-high 42 home runs in 2016. Cruz followed three years later by pacing the Bomba Squad with 41 home runs as Minnesota set a major league record with 307 team homers.

Now Buxton's name sits alongside theirs. For a player who has had his fair share of ups and downs throughout his career, that distinction highlights just how extraordinary this stretch has become.

Why Is Buxton Hitting for More Power Than Ever?

At first glance, the answer shouldn't make sense. Buxton's bat speed has declined compared to previous seasons. Last season, he was at 75.0 mph, and this season he is down to 74.0 mph. That's a natural part of aging and something nearly every player experiences as they move through their 30s. Normally, less bat speed leads to diminished power.

Instead, Buxton is producing the best power numbers of his career. The explanation may actually be tied to that slight decline in bat speed. Against fastballs, Buxton has been late a bit more often than he was in previous years. However, he has also done a better job of centering those pitches horizontally on the barrel. The occasional late swing has been more than offset by his improved performance against breaking pitches.

He's covering spin more effectively than ever. Buxton is swinging over fewer breaking balls and running out of bat less frequently than he did a year ago. The slightly slower swing appears to have improved his timing window, allowing him to stay back longer and make more consistent quality contact against off-speed offerings.

In short, he has sacrificed very little against velocity while becoming significantly better against secondary pitches. That tradeoff has unlocked a new level of offensive production. However, it's also a sign of more inevitable decline ahead.

Can Buxton Become the First 50-Home Run Twin?

That question no longer feels unrealistic. Killebrew's franchise-record 49 home runs have stood for more than six decades. Numerous Twins sluggers have threatened the mark, but none have reached the 50-homer plateau.

Buxton is now forcing his way into that conversation. If he maintains anything close to his current pace and stays on the field, he has a legitimate opportunity to challenge Killebrew's record and become the first player in franchise history to hit 50 home runs in a season.

Twins fans have spent years imagining what a peak Buxton season might look like. The answer may finally be unfolding in front of them.

After a slow start that appeared tied to a disrupted spring schedule, Buxton has erupted into one of the most dominant power hitters in baseball. His recent run places him alongside some of the greatest home run stretches in franchise history and has revived conversations about records that once seemed untouchable.

Whether he ultimately reaches 50 home runs remains to be seen. What is already clear is that Buxton is producing a stretch of power that deserves a place among the most memorable offensive runs ever witnessed in a Twins uniform.

Can Buxton reach 50 homers? Should fans be worried about his decreased bat speed? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Jacksson]

He has falling in love with launching the long ball  and this has him striking out way too much.  The other day, batting leadoff, he was 1 for 5 WITH FOUR STRIKEOUTS.

[Hunter4848]

People rightfully clowned on Wallner for his solo shots, yet Buxton is somehow worse...

[Hunter4848]

Is Buxton the most overrated Twins player in modern history?

[wornsmooth]

Article only mentions Killebrew's 1964 season of 49 homers.  He did it again in 1969, but that year he not only hit 49 home runs, but also had something like 140 RBI's, and 145 or so walks.So he also scored a bunch more runs.

Killebrew justifiably was that years MVP.

It is also forgotten that it took him a while to completely heal from a devastating elbow injury in 1965 and a horrific torn hamstring in '67 all-star game (if memory serves on the year).

64 was a great year for Killebrew, but 69 was one of the most amazing seasons for any major league player in that time period.

 

 

[wornsmooth]

3 minutes ago, wornsmooth said:

Article only mentions Killebrew's 1964 season of 49 homers.  He did it again in 1969, but that year he not only hit 49 home runs, but also had something like 140 RBI's, and 145 or so walks.So he also scored a bunch more runs.

Killebrew justifiably was that years MVP.

It is also forgotten that it took him a while to completely heal from a devastating elbow injury in 1965 and a horrific torn hamstring in '67 all-star game (if memory serves on the year).

64 was a great year for Killebrew, but 69 was one of the most amazing seasons for any major league player in that time period.

 

 

Should have looked it up before posting.

Killebrew tore his hamstring in 1968 all-star game.

[Jacksson]

Buxton is: overrated with the bat, his defense is slipping, and he remains brittle to the point of not being capable to not only be on the field defensively but to play in a good chunk of the 162 game schedule.  It is only gonna get worse with every year's flip of the calendar.  Time to answer the phone when it rings asking about Buxton and to cozy up to Buxton so that he will wave his NTA.  Others: Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Wallner, Bell, Lewis, etc. should be on their way out at this year's trade deadline along with a good old fashioned housecleaning of the AAAA and AAA players and pitchers clogging up the 40 man roster.

[Jacksson]

How many K's so far for BB?  On pace for?

[rv78]

Since this team is going no-where anytime soon, they should go to Buxton and ask him to waive his no trade clause. They should be able to get a haul for him at the trade deadline. The only reason why I bring this up is because every other Twins player, (Ryan, Jeffers, Clemens) that are actually helping this team win some games, is the subject of trade aspirations on this site.

In all actuality, his trade value has never been higher and he's still a huge risk of injury that will sideline his season at any time. Twins need to cash in on the most injury prone player to ever put on a Twins uniform when and if they can.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Jacksson said:

Buxton is: overrated with the bat, his defense is slipping, and he remains brittle to the point of not being capable to not only be on the field defensively but to play in a good chunk of the 162 game schedule.  It is only gonna get worse with every year's flip of the calendar.  Time to answer the phone when it rings asking about Buxton and to cozy up to Buxton so that he will wave his NTA.  Others: Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Wallner, Bell, Lewis, etc. should be on their way out at this year's trade deadline along with a good old fashioned housecleaning of the AAAA and AAA players and pitchers clogging up the 40 man roster.

Not fifty HR but fifty wins is within our grasp 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

People rightfully clowned on Wallner for his solo shots, yet Buxton is somehow worse...

Find me a stretch where Wallner hit as many homers in similar numbers of games.  When homers are the only thing a right fielder does, the standard needs to be pretty high.

Buxton's scored 46 runs in 59 ballgames played so far this season (oop, he scored another today, make that 47 in 60).  That's a better run-scoring pace than renowned table-setter Luis Arraez generally achieves. 

You want to run the best scorer on the team out of town on a rail?  They've found a good niche for Buxton; let's not nitpick how he's doing it.