Zebby Matthews Could Find Sustained Success By Ditching His Cutter

[Cody Schoenmann]

Last October, Twins Daily’s Matthew Trueblood published a piece on Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews’s proclivity to surrendering a high number of singles over the first two seasons of his career, evidenced by the 25-year-old allowing a .361 batting average on balls in play over 117 innings pitched. In his article, Trueblood notes that Matthews’s ailments aren’t simply due to him being unlucky, citing that the hard-throwing righty gives up too many batted balls that have a strong chance of becoming hits. Defensive improvement from Minnesota (particularly from the infielders) could lead to more sustained success for Matthews in 2026. However, the former top prospect could also take steps to mend his shortcomings by refining his arsenal.

 

Last season, Matthews threw the following pitches (usage rates included):

• Four-seam fastball - 41%
• Slider - 25%
• Cutter - 13%
• Change - 11%
• Curve - 6%
• Sinker - 4%

The righty’s most used pitch was his four-seam fastball, which was also the case in 2024. Those following the Twins should expect him to continue throwing the pitch at a rate eclipsing 40% next season. However, his best pitch is his slider, which he used only 25% of the time in 2025. He also used his change, curve, and sinker a combined 21% of the time, primarily utilizing his change against left-handed hitters in an effort to generate swings and misses below the zone. Matthews would be wise to continue throwing these pitches in 2026 to change the pace of at-bats. However, he would be wise to scrap his cutter entirely, opting to fortify his slider and use it at a rate similar to his fastball (both of which are superior pitches).

Functioning as a fastball variant, Matthews primarily threw his cutter against left-handed hitters, with the intention of getting hitters to jam themselves on the pitch cutting in on them. Unfortunately, left-handed hitters generated a .760 slugging percentage against his cutter last season. Matthews’s cutter is slightly above-average in terms of Stuff. However, the young righty poorly located his cutter, throwing it lower in the zone against left-handed hitters rather than attacking them high. Because he is unable to effectively throw his cutter high in the zone against left-handed hitters, the pitch is unintentionally being used like a backdoor slider. However, given that his cutter doesn’t have the same movement profile as his plus slider, the pitch isn’t reaching the back foot of left-handed hitters. That being the case, lefties have been able to take advantage of the pitch due to it catching too much of the plate at a lower velocity than his four-seam fastball.

 

As mentioned earlier, Matthews would be wise to instead throw backdoor sliders to left-handed hitters, a pitch that provides more depth and better location than his cutter. He could also throw his plus four-seam high in the zone to lefties, creating a more formidable one-two punch, instead of relying on his cutter to play the role of fastball and slider. Also, he could be incentivized to throw his change more against lefties, increasing his usage rate to around 20%. If Matthews were to ditch his cutter, increase his slider usage, and further utilize his change against lefties, he could limit balls put in play against him (particularly against lefties) and potentially earn his first taste of sustained success at the major league level in 2026.

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[bjorks]

Whatever happened to the narrative Matthew’s throws too many strikes or is too much in the zone? 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, bjorks said:

Whatever happened to the narrative Matthew’s throws too many strikes or is too much in the zone? 

Look at his pitch map. There are a lot  of pitches in the heart of the plate. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/zebby-matthews-805673?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb  At the bottom of the page you can see where the others go. 

 

[mluebker]

You’d think a pitcher—or catcher or pitching coach—would notice when a particular pitch is getting hammered and mention it. I’ve never thought pitching-to-contact—intentionally or otherwise—is a good idea unless you’ve got an air-tight defense out there. And I can’t recall the last time the Twins fielded anything close. Overall, I prefer the old strategy of missing bats as often as possible while staying in and around the strike zone. But you gotta have guys who can do that.

[JD-TWINS]

To me, 6 pitches are probably too many for anyone other than a supreme talent to have in there arsenal. 5 pitches are a stretch.

Eliminating one or two that have low success to then be able to refine the remaining pitches seems obvious. Control “in the zone” or locating, this seems to be Zebby’s biggest hurdle. Less pitch types and better location would be a path Matthews should follow.

Frankly, I hope he’s our Closer and he goes to 4 pitches with fastball/slider being used 85% of the time. ALL nice on paper! Hopefully, Zebby finds some balance and path to consistent success.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree mluebker, pitchers and catchers talk constantly about what's working and what is not.  Pitching coaches have regular sessions with the pitcher going over video of what worked and what didn't work.  It's not just last year, it's also the year before.  This 6 pitch mix has been suspect for quite some time.

That cutter sailed in at 93 mph right down the middle, and frankly, it's a small wonder Vinnie P. only hammered it for a single.  In effect, when Zebby throws his cutter to LH hitters he's making each of them into a 1961 version of the Tigers Norm Cash.  (look up his stats from his 1961 season, it was his greatest season ever for a solid career).  Zebby can hit 98 with his 4 seamer.  That 5 mph increase is significant.

How could it be taking this long for the Twins and Zebby to realize some "adjustments" need to be made?  Normally, I would expect these adjustments to take place "in game."  Not after the season.  Pete Maki is back.  Is Pete aware of this?  Of course he is.  Why haven't adjustments been made before?  

I think Matthews has the ability to be a pretty solid SP.  That's why I wouldn't have him closing to begin this season.  In a sane world, the Twins would have signed a proven closer already.  But with Zebby's pitch mix I'd give him 2026 to be a SP.  David Festa is the guy I'd like to see start off in the 7th inning, graduate to the 8th inning after a couple months and possibly turn into the Twins closer sometime later in the season.

Young SP's like Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Rojas and Prielipp (and Dasan Hill in a year or 2) all have excellent potential.  But the rough edges need to be smoothed.  The command sharpened.  And pitches that are highly ineffective need to be dropped from the arsenal in favor of pitches that have a high degree of success.  

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think it is that simple. His cutter was his 4th most used pitch against left handed batters and third against right handed batters, He gave up two extra base hits with his cutter last year (1 double and 1 home run). Most of the damage was singles. Lefties happened to get those two extra base hits but now we are making decisions on results from 20 at bats. Is that wise?

[Linus]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think it is that simple. His cutter was his 4th most used pitch against left handed batters and third against right handed batters, He gave up two extra base hits with his cutter last year (1 double and 1 home run). Most of the damage was singles. Lefties happened to get those two extra base hits but now we are making decisions on results from 20 at bats. Is that wise?

Correct. Plus the pitch might have good qualities but is just poorly located. Let’s let him get comfortable in the big leagues. Maybe his cutter, located better ends up being a great pitch.