Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach

[The Great Hambino]

46 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The front office should know a LOT more about these guys than I do. They see them hit in practice every day, during spring training and in the cages. If Larnach can't hit lefties in practice, he's not going to magically be able to hit them in game situations.

This is a good point that I think might also apply to the idea of moving Larnach (or Wallner) to 1B.   They've been observing these guys for years and have a much better idea than we do about what these guys can or can't do.  Given the general lack of in-house 1B options under this regime, if they thought they could successfully transition either of them to 1B, they probably already would've by now - or at least would already be in the process of doing so.

Or maybe Falvey just really loves treating the position like a fantasy football player streaming defenses and kickers

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Baseball people, apparently see this difference as something that can’t be fixed in 2-3-4 years (seldomly) at Pro Level ……. after 14-16 years of habit building.

In my opinion... If it's baked in through evolution. It is what it is. Quit fighting it. Take the incremental improvements that you just might get through exposure.  

Instead they settle for the neutral split of the right handed hitter to avoid that disadvantage 28% of the time and that is playing the split wrong. 

RHH vs LHP - 2025 League Wide .721 (.28%)

RHH vs RHP - 2025 League Wide .703 (72%)

LHH vs LHP - 2025 League Wide .664 (.28%)

LHH vs RHP - 2025 League Wide .747 (72%)

Why are they running and hiding from the .664 and ignoring the .747. Left handed hitters should be preferable to the right handed hitter all things being equal. 

If you take the .747 at 72% and the .664 at 28% and compare it to the .703 at 72% with the .721 at 28%. 

The .747 at 72% and .664 at 28% is going to add up to the correct way to play the platoon split. 

Of course players are not equal. Talent... Hitting Talent regardless if they are left handed or right handed is what you need up and down the roster. The very second you trade for Manual Margot to limit the development of your left handed hitters. You have compromised the future and gained nothing in the present because Manual Margot will see more right handed hitting due to injury changing the carefully laid out spring training roster with handcuffs placed perfectly on the team breaking camp. That perfectally laid out handcuffed roster will not last 162 games and when it goes away... you'll be wishing that you just went out and got the best hitter you can find instead. 

Just absorb the left vs left so you can enjoy the left vs right. Going out and seeking Manual Margot to hit 28% of the time isn't going to work through 162 games. Injuries and unexpected poor play are going to change the equation and change it before April ends. And now you got Manual Margot facing more right handed pitching. The equation will change in late September when Margot gets hurt and then all of sudden. Hey Trevor... We need you to all of sudden face left handed pitching in the playoffs. I know we kept you away from it but... we need you now. Sorry for the crappy preparation for this moment.    

It simply drives me nuts to read posters who are taking Larnach and using his lefty splits against him. Nearly everybody struggles against left handers. Righties struggle against lefties. Find people who don't struggle against right handers and now you have something. 

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Mahoning said:

The general tenor of comment seems to be that Larnach would be easy to replace. Maybe so, but with whom? Believe it or not he was third on the team in RBI (with a measly 60), the most of his career. 

Opportunity plays a role.  No one on the team had even 600 PA (68 major leaguers reached that lofty threshold in 2025), but Larnach led the Twins with 567.  Being third in RBIs seems like a black mark, not a gold star, for a guy whose only value is with the bat. 

In fairness, he did bat leadoff 14% of the time and in the 2-hole another 32%.  But even in the 231 PA he batted 3rd or 4th, he racked up only 24 RBIs - at that rate he'd need nearly 1000 tries to accumulate 100 RBI.

Teammate Byron Buxton achieved 83 RBIs in fewer PA; that's a bat that would be hard to replace.  Jo Adell of the lowly Angels (hardly a run-producing powerhouse franchise) managed 98 RBI in his 573 plate appearances - maybe hitting 37 HR instead of Larnach's 17 had something to do with the discrepancy. 

There were plenty of players who produced RBIs for the Twins at a similar rate to Larnach. If he were gone, the plate appearances would be spread around and you'd never notice the difference, even as the roster stands now.  Cody Freaking Klemens (a player I could hardly be accused of woofing for) would help fill the gap, for instance - Ty France did better too, and he didn't cost what Larnach is about to command in salary.

Don't use RBIs as any kind of defense of Larnach's value in 2025.  And if as you suggest he's not easy to replace, to say nothing of improving on?  That would be a black mark on the FO.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

And they still get it wrong. We can down the list on players they got it wrong with. It's extensive. Assessment is hard when you dealing with a large pile of players that are seperated by inches. I don't blame them for being wrong. I want them to understand that they are wrong frequently... I want them to staff the 26 and 40 man rosters using all the predictive powers they have and once they set the rosters... I want them to get out of the way and let the players show them.    

Defense... I like Defense... I'm a fan. A catch that others wouldn't make are outs they shouldn't have gotten and that turns 3 outs to 2 and this greatly decreases the chances of putting up a crooked number. A catch that wasn't made that others would have made is going from 3 outs to 4 outs in an inning and that greatly increases the odds of a crooked number. I get the value of defense but there is more to the game than these separating OF events that occur once every two and half games... if that.  

In the meantime... someone still has to out perform Trevor at the plate and we don't have those players on the current roster yet and the DH spot is still an option... if his defense is just to scary.   

How are we getting those players on the roster to actually get ABs if we're keeping Larnach? Maybe your argument is really keep Larnach over Wallner? Personally, I would keep the cheaper one who at least has a defensive asset (his arm) and has produced at much higher levels previously as a hitter, but it's an argument.

I'd like a full-time DH to produce at higher levels than Larnach, and the team's defense would improve if neither Larnach or Wallner were patrolling out there regularly.

Did Roden play well enough to deserve being handed a job? No, but it's not uncommon for players to struggle in the first taste of MLB, and he may be able to handle CF, at least as a backup.

Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez all have higher ceilings at this point than Larnach; is it really that useful to the Twins to win 76 games with Larnach and 74 games without him? Or might we win those extra couple of games by spending the money "saved" on a competent relief pitcher and figuring out which corner OF (let's not forget Fedko) is ready to make the jump by actually giving them MLB AB's?

Larnach isn't a terrible player, but he's limited. He doesn't add anything defensively or on the bases, and even though he's on the better side of the platoon, he doesn't punish RHP so well that you're terribly excited about him DHing most days. That .759 OPS against RHP is ok...if you add something else to the table. Wallner has a career OPS of .881 against RHP. Larnach has never broken an OPS of .800 against RHP in any season in his career.

For a team that's rebuilding, why are we spending very limited resources hoping for...ok?

Also, let's not pretend Larnach has any real value on the trade market. He was clearly shopped and no one bought at the deadline, and with his price increasing I wouldn't expect any more buyers.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

How are we getting those players on the roster to actually get ABs if we're keeping Larnach?

The answer is easy: 

Stop thinking about putting players in buckets like starter and bench.

In my opinion... On the current roster... We have two players who have earned everyday playing time. Buxton and Keaschall. That's it. With Two catchers on the roster in their own rotation. 

That leaves you with 9 players and 6 lineup spots to divide up playing time. I'm not saying the time should be divided up equally but if you did divide it up equally... Everybody plays 2 out of 3 games. Nobody is going to be neglected. Nobody gets splinters. You are running 13 players through the filter with competition for more playing time or less playing time.. You need to run 13 players through the filter at all times if you want to find 9 players who can get it done. If you just run 9 through... you won't find 9. It increases your odds. 

Wallner, Larnach, Martin and Outman can compete with each other for two outfield spots and the DH position. Rodon, Erod, Jenkins can be quick callups when injury occurs and then they should be allowed to compete. If Outman hasn't figured it out by June. Cut him... Rodon, Erod and Jenkins can be called up to replace him. 

Lewis and Lee need competition. They don't need to play every day. They can play two out of 3 and be just fine from a development standpoint. If Lewis figures it out and starts being the Lewis we think he should be. Move him to every day status. Now you have 3 every day players... 2 catchers and 8 players to compete for 5 lineup spots. 

2026 should be all about compiling as much young talent as possible and competition for playing time. 

Just get out of the way and let the players tell you through performance. 

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea if this is his peak, or what.....but they have 10000 OFers in AAA and the MLB. There is zero reason to pay him his new salary given the alternatives, IMO. I'd love to see them just go with Roden and Jenkins to start the year on either side of Buxton, with Martin ready to play also (or in place of Roden?). More likely Outman is up before Jenkins, though. 

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The answer is easy: 

Stop thinking about putting players in buckets like starter and bench.

In my opinion... On the current roster... We have two players who have earned everyday playing time. Buxton and Keaschall. That's it. With Two catchers on the roster in their own rotation. 

That leaves you with 9 players and 6 lineup spots to divide up playing time. I'm not saying the time should be divided up equally but if you did divide it up equally... Everybody plays 2 out of 3 games. Nobody is going to be neglected. Nobody gets splinters. You are running 13 players through the filter with competition for more playing time or less playing time.. You need to run 13 players through the filter at all times if you want to find 9 players who can get it done. If you just run 9 through... you won't find 9. It increases your odds. 

Wallner, Larnach, Martin and Outman can compete with each other for two outfield spots and the DH position. Rodon, Erod, Jenkins can be quick callups when injury occurs and then they should be allowed to compete. If Outman hasn't figured it out by June. Cut him... Rodon, Erod and Jenkins can be called up to replace him. 

Lewis and Lee need competition. They don't need to play every day. They can play two out of 3 and be just fine from a development standpoint. If Lewis figures it out and starts being the Lewis we think he should be. Move him to every day status. Now you have 3 every day players... 2 catchers and 8 players to compete for 5 lineup spots. 

2026 should be all about compiling as much young talent as possible and competition for playing time. 

Just get out of the way and let the players tell you through performance. 

You have Outman on this roster? Good god, why?!? He's been dreadful for 2 seasons in a row at the plate and his defense has slipped to where I'd rather have Martin play backup CF (and I don't really want that) than him. There's zero competition there.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

10. Go ahead and typecast your young players and see if you can get anything for them in the trade market. 

This is why I've been saying they should start Larnach at SS. They've unfairly pigeonholed him as a LF. They should let him play at SS, even though he struggles. There's only one way to get better, and that's to make the team worse in the hopes that some day the players will figure it out. 

[jorgenswest]

Larnach has the odd split. He hit better last year in games started by a left handed pitcher than when right handed pitchers start. His OPS in games started by a lefty was .775 as compared to .720 in games started by right handed pitchers. Why? He started 15 of those 25 games so it isn’t just pinch hitting after the lefty starter has been removed. He must bat later in the lineup and see that lefty no more than twice. He then must clean up on the right handed relievers. Random small sample? Maybe but this is true for his career numbers also. He has been helpful and playable  in games started by lefties in his career.

Wallner does not have this odd split. He has done very poorly in games started by a lefty both last year and his career. A big part of that is his very poor pinch hitting record over his career. He hasn’t been playable in games started by a lefty.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

You have Outman on this roster? Good god, why?!? He's been dreadful for 2 seasons in a row at the plate and his defense has slipped to where I'd rather have Martin play backup CF (and I don't really want that) than him. There's zero competition there.

They acquired him knowing he has no options remaining. They could have kept Brock they didn't need to deal him. 

He's not on the roster because I chose him. I believe the Twins have already chosen him... because a 2 month rental in a lost season is pointless. 

The Twins are going to make an attempt to get him producing.  

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This is why I've been saying they should start Larnach at SS. They've unfairly pigeonholed him as a LF. They should let him play at SS, even though he struggles. There's only one way to get better, and that's to make the team worse in the hopes that some day the players will figure it out. 

I've asked you to stay away. You can't. 

What comes next... You've asked for it. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

They acquired him knowing he has no options remaining. They could have kept Brock they didn't need to deal him. 

He's not on the roster because I chose him. I believe the Twins have already chosen him... because a 2 month rental in a lost season is pointless. 

The Twins are going to make an attempt to get him producing.  

I, depressingly, agree with this.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've asked you to stay away. You can't. 

What comes next... You've asked for it. 

This is a public forum. I'm not trying to harass you I'm responding to comments in a forum. Sorry you don't like me I guess but I don't really care? 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This is a public forum. I'm not trying to harass you I'm responding to comments in a forum. Sorry you don't like me I guess but I don't really care? 

I don't mind discussion. I don't shy from it. I understand that I have thoughts that run counter to conventional traditional baseball thoughts and should expect discussion.  

Your belligerence is simply nothing I want any part of. Learn to discuss respectfully or simply ignore. 

Failing that... I'll just give you a taste of it. You ask for it consistently.    

[The Great Hambino]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I, depressingly, agree with this.

I seriously would've preferred a 17 year old from the DSL in return for Brock instead

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

His OPS in games started by a lefty was .775 as compared to .720 in games started by right handed pitchers. Why?

Probably a matter of the manager picking more favorable lefties for him to start against. More Poviches than Skubals. 

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Larnach has the odd split. He hit better last year in games started by a left handed pitcher than when right handed pitchers start. His OPS in games started by a lefty was .775 as compared to .720 in games started by right handed pitchers. Why? He started 15 of those 25 games so it isn’t just pinch hitting after the lefty starter has been removed. He must bat later in the lineup and see that lefty no more than twice. He then must clean up on the right handed relievers. Random small sample? Maybe but this is true for his career numbers also. He has been helpful and playable  in games started by lefties in his career.

Wallner does not have this odd split. He has done very poorly in games started by a lefty both last year and his career. A big part of that is his very poor pinch hitting record over his career. He hasn’t been playable in games started by a lefty.

As always... I appreciate your additions to the nuance. 

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Probably a matter of the manager picking more favorable lefties for him to start against. More Poviches than Skubals. 

His OPS against left handers would rise accordingly and not sit in complain about it territory.  

Read his post again and think for once in your life.  

 

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

His OPS against left handers would rise accordingly and not sit in complain about it territory.  

Read his post again and think for once in your life.  

 

lol, sure gramps

[jorgenswest]

29 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Probably a matter of the manager picking more favorable lefties for him to start against. More Poviches than Skubals. 

Maybe. There are a lot more like Povich than Skubal so that is probably true of everyone. It turns out he started against Skubal once and Povich once. He also started against Crochet.

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Maybe. There are a lot more like Povich than Skubal so that is probably true of everyone. It turns out he started against Skubal once and Povich once. He also started against Crochet.

In those games started by lefthanders.

Do you have the breakdown of how many AB's against Right Handers compared to left handers in those games? 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I seriously would've preferred a 17 year old from the DSL in return for Brock instead

So did the Dodgers and that's why they kept the 17-year old and offered only OutMan.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

I seriously would've preferred a 17 year old from the DSL in return for Brock instead

The Dodgers probably had roster size issues that needed some trimming in order to add Brock to the roster.  

Now... the Dodgers could have traded a 17 year old for Stewart and then they could have just cut Outman to make room.

The only assumption that I can fathom is that the Dodgers knew that teams (Plural) were interested in Outman and they didn't have to let him go for nothing.

The Twins were absolutely without question one of those teams because guess who walked away with the prize by providing a reliever that could shore up the pen if he remained healthy. 

The Twins wanted Outman. They negotiated his acquisition. 

 

[jorgenswest]

23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

In those games started by lefthanders.

Do you have the breakdown of how many AB's against Right Handers compared to left handers in those games? 

I don’t. I wonder how much it matters. I suspect most of the damage was done against right handed pitching. That still seems like a positive thing. The alternative is a line up full of right handed bats that makes it too easy for the starter to get in a rhythm. Larnach will take longer at bats and put the ball in play better than Wallner against a lefty. Situated between two right handed batters he makes it more difficult for that right handed reliever that is going to come in mid game.

[The Great Hambino]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Dodgers probably had roster size issues that needed some trimming in order to add Brock to the roster.  

Now... the Dodgers could have traded a 17 year old for Stewart and then they could have just cut Outman to make room.

The only assumption that I can fathom is that the Dodgers knew that teams (Plural) were interested in Outman and they didn't have to let him go for nothing.

The Twins were absolutely without question one of those teams because guess who walked away with the prize by providing a reliever that could shore up the pen if he remained healthy. 

The Twins wanted Outman. They negotiated his acquisition. 

 

I'm not sure where you get that multiple teams wanted him just because the Twins accepted him in trade, or why that should matter to the Twins.  They were bidding against themselves for all we know

Obviously the Twins wanted him.  I'm saying they shouldn't have wanted him.  A 29 year old (in 2026) that can't hit his weight at an organizational position of surplus (at least in quantity) is not something a team setting up for a youth movement should be putting trade resources toward acquiring.  Now they're committing playing time to him that should otherwise be going to their developing younger players.  That's why I would've preferred a long-shot lotto ticket instead. 

I have no doubt that the Dodgers wanted to get rid of him, but the Twins were not obligated to do them the favor of removing him from their roster.

To devil's advocate myself, the only reason I can think of for keeping him around is that they don't trust anyone else likely to debut with the big club on opening day to back up centerfield.  Otherwise, it seems like a waste of Stewart to me

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t. I wonder how much it matters. I suspect most of the damage was done against right handed pitching. That still seems like a positive thing. The alternative is a line up full of right handed bats that makes it too easy for the starter to get in a rhythm. Larnach will take longer at bats and put the ball in play better than Wallner against a lefty. Situated between two right handed batters he makes it more difficult for that right handed reliever that is going to come in mid game.

I appreciate it. It's a big math project and I was just asking in case you had the answer in your pocket already.   

You are right... In the end... it won't matter much because 15 starts and 25 games is going to be a small sample  on both sides of the coin and probably the most likely explanation. Sample size is why I asked the question and it planted a question in my head. 

The question. If you only looked at games where lefties started. How does the AB's breakout vs Right Handers and Left Handers. We would naturally assume that there would be more AB's against left handers but I think right handers will end up being the dominant.   

Most of the damage would have to have been done against right handed pitching replacing the starter because the swing between .775 and .608 is quite large and something has to drive it up .167 points.  

It's good food for thought and what it does show is that there more to this than the cumulation of stats one AB at a time. 

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I appreciate it. It's a big math project and I was just asking in case you had the answer in your pocket already.   

You are right... In the end... it won't matter much because 15 starts and 25 games is going to be a small sample  on both sides of the coin and probably the most likely explanation. Sample size is why I asked the question and it planted a question in my head. 

The question. If you only looked at games where lefties started. How does the AB's breakout vs Right Handers and Left Handers. We would naturally assume that there would be more AB's against left handers but I think right handers will end up being the dominant.   

Most of the damage would have to have been done against right handed pitching replacing the starter because the swing between .775 and .608 is quite large and something has to drive it up .167 points.  

It's good food for thought and what it does show is that there more to this than the cumulation of stats one AB at a time. 

It is a small sample but even over his career he has a better OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher. Is it better to be extreme in this split like Wallner (.906 v .464 OPS over career)? Maybe. Just put him on the bench when a lefty starts and keep him there.

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I'm not sure where you get that multiple teams wanted him just because the Twins accepted him in trade, or why that should matter to the Twins.  They were bidding against themselves for all we know

Obviously the Twins wanted him.  I'm saying they shouldn't have wanted him.  A 29 year old (in 2026) that can't hit his weight at an organizational position of surplus (at least in quantity) is not something a team setting up for a youth movement should be putting trade resources toward acquiring.  Now they're committing playing time to him that should otherwise be going to their developing younger players.  That's why I would've preferred a long-shot lotto ticket instead. 

I have no doubt that the Dodgers wanted to get rid of him, but the Twins were not obligated to do them the favor of removing him from their roster.

To devil's advocate myself, the only reason I can think of for keeping him around is that they don't trust anyone else likely to debut with the big club on opening day to back up centerfield.  Otherwise, it seems like a waste of Stewart to me

Just assumptions... that is all I've got. 

The Dodgers had a lot of roster shuffling and a pretty impressive list of 40 man roster options throughout 2025. 

In short... Injuries and the recall of injured players is going to create roster pressure.

The Dodgers could have released Outman at any time prior to the deadline. They didn't. I assume the Dodgers had a sense of his value to other clubs. Teams would be waiting for him to spill out the back end.  

Just assumptions. Perhaps the Twins were the only team calling. But I assume someone was. 

[The Great Hambino]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Just assumptions... that is all I've got. 

The Dodgers had a lot of roster shuffling and a pretty impressive list of 40 man roster options throughout 2025. 

In short... Injuries and the recall of injured players is going to create roster pressure.

The Dodgers could have released Outman at any time prior to the deadline. They didn't. I assume the Dodgers had a sense of his value to other clubs. Teams would be waiting for him to spill out the back end.  

Just assumptions. Perhaps the Twins were the only team calling. But I assume someone was. 

Fair enough.  That's not unreasonable.  But in that case, the Twins should've let that other team take him.  He's not young enough to expect future development and not good enough to help a team be competitive

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It is a small sample but even over his career he has a better OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher. Is it better to be extreme in this split like Wallner (.906 v .464 OPS over career)? Maybe. Just put him on the bench when a lefty starts and keep him there.

Baseball Games are games that involve multiple pitchers.  

You dig up interesting stuff. That's what I appreciate about you.