The Case for the Moose: Matt Wallner Deserves More Respect

[Bodie]

2 hours ago, Chembry said:

Is Giancarlo Stanton a good hitter?  Just curious what your thoughts are on him?  They have very similar stat lines this year.

Since 2023, Wallner has provided a better run value that Giancarlo Stanton...Most probably put Stanton in much higher regard than Wallner, but that just isn't the case.

Give every GM a choice- Wallner or Stanton. I'll even give you that they must be paid as per their current contract. 

One man may choose Wallner.  Maybe. Even with the disparity in pay.  Even with Stanton being a broken down shell of his former self.

Unfortunately that man is named Derrick Falvey. 

[DocBauer]

Wallner is not slow. He's actually one if the fastest players on the team in regard to sprint speed. But he's a very large person and it takes time to get up and moving. Therefore, he's fast, but isn't necessarily "quick". That means he's never going to steal a ton of bases, and must get solid reads in the OF to be effective.

THE BAD:

He's never going to be quick.

He's never going to be a great defender. But he's previously been better than this season. He may be taking some of his frustration to the field with him.

He's always going to K more than people want.

THE GOOD:

His arm is in the 90+% in MLB for strength/speed and accuracy. Teams don't even try to run on him any longer.

His power is tremendous.

His QUAD SLASH for his CAREER....meaning briefly in 2022, and including THIS down season, PLUS 2023'-'24...sits at:

.238/ .350/ .501/ .823

Those are excellent numbers! That's an approximately leage average HIT tool, and ABOVE league average OB%, SLG %, and OPS%. His OPS PLUS is 133! That means as a hitter he's 33% BETTER than average.

He can't control where he gets put in the lineup or how many runners from a poor producing lineup are on base in front of him.

But by all means, if you haven't learned that there is more to measuring ballplayers besides their BATTING AVERAGES, then I suppose Wallner will look bad to you. But considering the LEAGUE WIDE AVERAGE batting average is below .250, I guess baseball is just filled with really bad players everywhere.

Ideally, Rodriguez and Jenkins will both be fine ML players and take over the corner spots, and soon. That's not only good for the lineup, but it does put better defense on the field. It would allow Wallner the ability to DH more often, and be a backup corner OF.

But any notion Wallner has been a bad player, and that he hasn't still been one of the better bats on the Twins this season, or that he isn't/can't be very important at his 2023-24 levels going forward is just not accurate. 

 

[Chembry]

2 hours ago, Bodie said:

Give every GM a choice- Wallner or Stanton. I'll even give you that they must be paid as per their current contract. 

One man may choose Wallner.  Maybe. Even with the disparity in pay.  Even with Stanton being a broken down shell of his former self.

Unfortunately that man is named Derrick Falvey. 

That's exactly the point I am making...Optics are key.  We don't watch Stanton every day, but the way ALL fans view their players is "the grass is always greener on the other side"...

Sources: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/giancarlo-stanton-519317?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-wallner-670242?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Stanton's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS):                            Wallner's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS):

2023: 1 (43rd percentile in MLB) .191/.275/.695                         2023: 12 (72nd percentile in MLB) .249/.370/.877  

2024: 9 (70th percentile in MLB) .233/.298/.773                       2024: 13 (76th percentile in MLB) .259/.372/.895

2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .305/.380/1.027                   2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .215/.321/.823

Career 16 seasons: .259/.346/.875                                              Career 4 seasons: .238/.350/.851

2025 is an up year for Stanton and a down year for Wallner, but they are still producing at the same level of Batting run value.  Even their career values are similar.  They even strike out at similar rates (2025 K rates: 30.5% for Stanton and 29.3% for Wallner).  The only difference is Stanton has been producing for longer.  I am not saying Wallner and Stanton should be viewed equally, but stats don't lie.  They produce similar results...

[hitterscount]

5 hours ago, Chembry said:

Is Giancarlo Stanton a good hitter?  Just curious what your thoughts are on him?  They have very similar stat lines this year.

Since 2023, Wallner has provided a better run value that Giancarlo Stanton...Most probably put Stanton in much higher regard than Wallner, but that just isn't the case.

They are similar at the plate and in the field….  if Im being honest Wallner is probably a slightly better defender and baserunner. I would take Wallner at this point in their careers.

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

That's exactly the point I am making...Optics are key.  We don't watch Stanton every day, but the way ALL fans view their players is "the grass is always greener on the other side"...

Sources: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/giancarlo-stanton-519317?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-wallner-670242?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Stanton's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS):                            Wallner's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS):

2023: 1 (43rd percentile in MLB) .191/.275/.695                         2023: 12 (72nd percentile in MLB) .249/.370/.877  

2024: 9 (70th percentile in MLB) .233/.298/.773                       2024: 13 (76th percentile in MLB) .259/.372/.895

2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .305/.380/1.027                   2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .215/.321/.823

Career 16 seasons: .259/.346/.875                                              Career 4 seasons: .238/.350/.851

2025 is an up year for Stanton and a down year for Wallner, but they are still producing at the same level of Batting run value.  Even their career values are similar.  They even strike out at similar rates (2025 K rates: 30.5% for Stanton and 29.3% for Wallner).  The only difference is Stanton has been producing for longer.  I am not saying Wallner and Stanton should be viewed equally, but stats don't lie.  They produce similar results...

Another thing that is being pushed aside is Wallner's injury history, in 3 1/2 seasons he has what.... Something like 800 AB's. The power cannot be ignored, but neither can his defense and speed. One of the dumbest moves our brilliant manager decided was a good idea was to have him leading off, that decision should get you fired alone. I think he has value as a DH and an occasional RF appearance. Value increases significantly if he could transition to 1st.... though some think that's a silly idea.

[Otaknam]

Wallner has had a disappointing season. 20 homers and 34 RBIs means his RISP is very poor. And too many poor at bats and strikeouts. Slugging percentage is overrated in his case. 

[Bodie]

13 hours ago, Chembry said:

That's exactly the point I am making...Optics are key.  We don't watch Stanton every day, but the way ALL fans view their players is "the grass is always greener on the other side"...

Sources: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/giancarlo-stanton-519317?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-wallner-670242?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Stanton's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS):                            Wallner's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS):

2023: 1 (43rd percentile in MLB) .191/.275/.695                         2023: 12 (72nd percentile in MLB) .249/.370/.877  

2024: 9 (70th percentile in MLB) .233/.298/.773                       2024: 13 (76th percentile in MLB) .259/.372/.895

2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .305/.380/1.027                   2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .215/.321/.823

Career 16 seasons: .259/.346/.875                                              Career 4 seasons: .238/.350/.851

2025 is an up year for Stanton and a down year for Wallner, but they are still producing at the same level of Batting run value.  Even their career values are similar.  They even strike out at similar rates (2025 K rates: 30.5% for Stanton and 29.3% for Wallner).  The only difference is Stanton has been producing for longer.  I am not saying Wallner and Stanton should be viewed equally, but stats don't lie.  They produce similar results...

47 RBIs (170 ABs) versus 35 RBIs (279 ABs) says he's 33% more productive in 60% of his at bats.

Not similar. Not even in the same ballpark.  

[Chembry]

3 hours ago, Bodie said:

47 RBIs (170 ABs) versus 35 RBIs (279 ABs) says he's 33% more productive in 60% of his at bats.

Not similar. Not even in the same ballpark.  

I understand that… as I said wallner is having a down year and Stanton is having an up year, but their batting run value is the same.

since you brought up RBIs, yes Stanton is out producing in terms of RBIs this year.  No question.  But, 2023 Wallner out produced Stanton in RBIs per AB (0.19 vs 0.16) and 2024 they produced at the same rate (0.17 per AB).  Also basing offensive value based solely on RBIs is unfair.  His production could definitely be better with RISP, but that also necessitates the hitters in front of him getting on base as well.  

I understand quite a few dislike Wallner, including you.  I particularly don’t necessarily dislike Wallner, but don’t love him either.  But if we compare his stats vs an established MLB DH, they line up very well.

[Chembry]

5 hours ago, Bodie said:

47 RBIs (170 ABs) versus 35 RBIs (279 ABs) says he's 33% more productive in 60% of his at bats.

Not similar. Not even in the same ballpark.  

I don’t want you to misunderstand my point.  People get caught up in name recognition.  Wallner is under team control through 2029 making league minimum next year.  Giancarlo Stanton is making $32M this year and $19M next year.  
Don’t you think the value Wallner brings, especially if we move him to DH, is worth keeping for a few years while he is making league minimum next year and will reach arbitration in 2027?  The answer should be a resounding yes.

[awmonahan]

I'm honestly much more tired of watching and reading about Trevor Larnach. He's more consistent, maybe, but we know what he is and that's average. Wallner and Ks can get frustrating, but when he's on you can see the talent. It just rarely comes through for Larnach anymore. I'd let him walk, keep Wallner and see how the OF transitions with the AAA guys that are banging on the door.