Twins 2, Mariners 0: Twins Shut Out Mariners to End Losing Streak

[jorgenswest]

9 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with your comment, most Twins pitchers average facing 22-24 batters a game and have for years. The third time though is brought up here, TV and the radio and when I hear it I feel like the people talking about it are just saying because they heard something about it. IMO, the real problem with Twins pitchers and pitchers around the league is how many pitches it is taking them to get though innings. Maybe it is the philosophy that every batter needs to be struck out so it is taking more pitches to get outs? I mean even our best pitcher Joe Ryan isn't starting an inning when his pitch count is above 85, which means a bunch of starts he only goes 5, but on days he is more efficient, he goes longer, weird?

Can't remember if it was Sale or a different pitcher was asked about his innings and he said if he want to pitch deeper into games he said he would have to be more efficient with his pitches and worry less about striking out guys and worrying about making better pitches to get outs, the strike outs will come. He also something along the lines of I am not much good to the team pitching 4 or 5 innings and wearing out our pen. 

To me it just feels like minor league pitchers (maybe not the best of the best) are being taught that strike outs are king and not to worry about pitch count or about innings

Hitters today might be too good. It is hard to avoid barrels and get balls in play for outs. Ober is among the AL leaders in fewest pitches per plate appearance. His strike out rate is way down from last year. He can give them length but all of that contact is susceptible to a big inning. In two recent starts he pitched 7 innings but gave up 5 and 7 runs. Pitchers with great stuff like Skubel can ease back on strike outs but I don’t know if an average starter can stay average while trading strike outs for contact anymore.

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

And only 4 hits! Yikes, You are correct: our pitching saved us in this game. 

It's tanked us for too many games lately. I'll take it.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, KillerBrew said:

Wasn’t there an article on here earlier about using him as possible trade bait? Or maybe I just dreamt that.🤦‍♂️ He’s been one of the few bright spots in this dismal season.

I guess he's as untouchable as anyone. I mean, he ought to be. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t know if an average starter can stay average while trading strike outs for contact anymore.

Would you want to trade strikeouts for contact and rely on the Twins defense behind you?

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Would you want to trade strikeouts for contact and rely on the Twins defense behind you?

Buxton, Correa and Bader are very good but hard contact is going to win out.

I think they are better off with the swing and miss and the higher pitch counts that come with strike outs. Lopez and Ryan might be able to trade a few strikeouts for contact while dialing it up with runners in scoring position in order to stay in the game longer. I think we see that from Lopez. Skubal can do it. If your dialed up form is league average or worse I think it is all gas/no brakes until handing it off to the pen.

[TwinsDr2021]

55 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Buxton, Correa and Bader are very good but hard contact is going to win out.

I think they are better off with the swing and miss and the higher pitch counts that come with strike outs. Lopez and Ryan might be able to trade a few strikeouts for contact while dialing it up with runners in scoring position in order to stay in the game longer. I think we see that from Lopez. Skubal can do it. If your dialed up form is league average or worse I think it is all gas/no brakes until handing it off to the pen.

My point wasn't strike outs are bad, which is obviously not true, it was more of the constant nibbling trying to get players to chase pitchers outside of the strike zone. (there are situations that call for that) It is more of they are ahead in the count 0 -2, 1-2 and then taking 4-6 more pitches for an outcome. I get the one pitch trying to get the guy to chase, but there are enough stats that show a pitch in a certain location is likely to get a good outcome (even a strike out if the player is looking for another pitch) Which I believe is what was Sale (if it was him) was trying say in my quote/conversation I heard. 

I also understand sometimes the outcome isn't going to be good, and that is a tough situation when your team is hitting terrible. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My point wasn't strike outs are bad, which is obviously not true, it was more of the constant nibbling trying to get players to chase pitchers outside of the strike zone. (there are situations that call for that) It is more of they are ahead in the count 0 -2, 1-2 and then taking 4-6 more pitches for an outcome. I get the one pitch trying to get the guy to chase, but there are enough stats that show a pitch in a certain location is likely to get a good outcome (even a strike out if the player is looking for another pitch) Which I believe is what was Sale (if it was him) was trying say in my quote/conversation I heard. 

I also understand sometimes the outcome isn't going to be good, and that is a tough situation when your team is hitting terrible. 

The Twins are 9th in baseball in zone%. Meaning they throw the 9th highest percent of their pitches in the zone. They get the 5th highest swing percentage on pitches in the zone. They also get the highest chase% in baseball. This leads to the 2nd highest opposing swing% in baseball. Only the Tampa Bay pitching staff gets a higher percentage of swings than the MN Twins. The Twins are third in baseball in 1st pitch strike%.

So, the Twins are coming at hitters from the jump and pounding the zone for the entirety of at bats. They are getting a ton of swings. This is definitely not a Twins only problem as they are amongst the best in baseball at attacking hitters. And it's not just a pitcher problem. It's also a hitter strategy. Hitters want to work counts and raise pitch counts. It's been this way for a long time. Draw walks, make the pitcher work, and look for pitches in the heart of the plate to drive. The Twins can attack the zone but that doesn't mean the hitters are going to swing all the time, and with whiff rates what they are these days they aren't always putting the ball in play.

Over half the pitches thrown in baseball are in the zone. 8 teams have zone% under 50%. Hitters swing at over 2/3 of pitches in the zone. Hitters make contact on over 80% of pitches they swing at in the zone. Shoot, hitters make contact with over 50% of pitches they swing at out of the zone. My guess is you're not going to see those numbers go up significantly.