KLaw's in-season minor league rankings

[TRex]

What a terrible time to let your ESPN Insider subscription lapse, but Keith Law has an article up on ESPN outlining the rising and falling Farm Systems, and the one blurb that is outside the pay wall is really all you need to see anyway!

Farm systems rising and falling - ESPN

Rising systems

 

Minnesota Twins

| Preseason rank: 2

 

The Twins have benefited from big jumps by several of their top prospects, balancing out the promotions of their No. 3, 4, and 5 prospects to the majors this year.

 

I wouldn't imagine many systems in history could lose their 3, 4 and 5 prospects and actually move UP from a preseason rank of #2!

 

Erik Karabell also has an interview with Miguel Sano. It's a little brutal, but I give Sano props for giving it his best in English.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Law is well known for not being a fan of the Twins too... Pretty impressive.

[cmb0252]

Law is well known for not being a fan of the Twins too... Pretty impressive.

 

According to 99% of fans Keith Law hates their team.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I think I've probably said this before but for some I've never been as excited for a group of twins prospects since I've been following them. Now they could all disappoint me but as a group I think that if you look at our prospects a bunch of them could be really good . I am just wondering if anyone feels the same way.

[bird]

I think I've probably said this before but for some I've never been as excited for a group of twins prospects since I've been following them. Now they could all disappoint me but as a group I think that if you look at our prospects a bunch of them could be really good . I am just wondering if anyone feels the same way.

 

Yes, since 2010.

[cmb0252]

There are very few super star level prospects in the minors. Most teams would just be happy to have one while we have two. Very excited about this group of kids.

[Smcginnity]

cmb0252 - I would argue that we have 3-4 super star level prospects. Personally, I would definitely put Kepler into this discussion of super star talent. Berrios would be my next one ...Rosario could potentially even be in this discussion.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I would go Buxton, Sano, Rosario for the bats, I should inculde Arcia even though he's in the bigs and won't be back down. Pitchers I think that Meyer just based on stuff alone is the only one that has a chance to be a ace. But I wouldn't count out Berrios. But after there are the guys I like and think they will meet there potential but have work to do DJ Hicks, Vargas, Harrison, Boyd, santana, Planaco, Kepler, May, Goodrum, I can keep thinking of names which is what I like because two-three years ago I couldn't do that.

[Ozziedavisfan]

and I was thinking best prospect class since the early eighties, late nineties

[Brock Beauchamp]

cmb0252 - I would argue that we have 3-4 super star level prospects. Personally, I would definitely put Kepler into this discussion of super star talent. Berrios would be my next one ...Rosario could potentially even be in this discussion.

 

Nah. You have Buxton and Sano at the super-star status followed by Berrios, Arcia, Meyer, Rosario at the "well above average" status.

 

And in the "potentially very good" category, you have about 6-7 guys. It's kind of crazy how stacked this farm system is right now.

 

Wildcard: Stewart.

[Zephrin]

cmb0252 - I would argue that we have 3-4 super star level prospects. Personally, I would definitely put Kepler into this discussion of super star talent. Berrios would be my next one ...Rosario could potentially even be in this discussion.

 

I think we have several potential "star" level players, including Berrios, Rosario and Kepler, but I'm not sure about putting the "super" in front. (Though Kepler has certainly had a superstar 2 weeks ) Buxton and Sano still seem like a cut above to me. (Kind of like Morneau, Hrbek and Kaat were "stars" for the Twins, but they still aren't at the level of their superstar peers "Mauer, Puckett, Killebrew")

[Ozziedavisfan]

I didn't inculde stewart because he hasn't pitched a full season. Or gibson, aaron hicks, and arica all which I would in the well above average catagory but are in the bigs and don't really count. I'm going to get killed for hicks but I do like him he just needs at bats. Why they sent down Arcia to the minors twice is beyond me. I'm chairman of his ROY campaign if I maybe be so bold.

[cmb0252]

cmb0252 - I would argue that we have 3-4 super star level prospects. Personally, I would definitely put Kepler into this discussion of super star talent. Berrios would be my next one ...Rosario could potentially even be in this discussion.

 

I think our definition of super stars is different. I see tiers of players as busts, below average, average, above average, star, and finally super star. There aren't many super star players in the league, maybe 10-20 at a time, so my definition is a little stricter than yours.

[cmb0252]

Nah. You have Buxton and Sano at the super-star status followed by Berrios, Arcia, Meyer, Rosario at the "well above average" status.

 

And in the "potentially very good" category, you have about 6-7 guys. It's kind of crazy how stacked this farm system is right now.

 

Wildcard: Stewart.

 

I think this is a pretty good description of star vs above average player. The one concern I have is how people keep putting Stewart aside because he hasn't pitched in the bigs yet. Stewart has rare tools that make him an elite pitcher regardless if he has pitched in the pros or not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think this is a pretty good description of star vs above average player. The one concern I have is how people keep putting Stewart aside because he hasn't pitched in the bigs yet. Stewart has rare tools that make him an elite pitcher regardless if he has pitched in the pros or not.

 

Yeah, possibly, but I like to at least see him pitch in a wood bat league before ranking him anywhere.

 

I also have a tendency to heavily skew things toward performance in upper minors versus potential in lower minors.

[Ozziedavisfan]

Stewart has rare tools that make him an elite pitcher regardless if he has pitched in the pros or not. so did Brien Taylor. I think until these guy hit and pitch at higher levels some this is just wishful thinking. But I think I will be Suprised if at least a half dozen maybe more are not very good Major league player. then again people were saying the same thing about the royals and look at them now.

[Smcginnity]

I think our definition of super stars is different. I see tiers of players as busts, below average, average, above average, star, and finally super star. There aren't many super star players in the league, maybe 10-20 at a time, so my definition is a little stricter than yours.

 

You are probably right actually. The more I'm thinking about it, they are tiered more. Kepler MAY be up with them but I think it will take another year to know that. Otherwise, it probably goes:

 

1.) Sano and Buxton

2.) Max Kepler, Jose Berrios, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia

3.) Polanco, Meija, Josmil Pinto, Trevor May, Kohl Stewart, Travis Harrison, Aaron Hicks

4.) Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Amaurys Minier, Lewis Thorpe, JD Williams, Niko Goodrum, Danny Santana, Daniel Ortiz, Felix Jorge, Yorman Landa

5.) Lewin Diaz, Landa, Angel Morales, Alex Wimmers, Nate Roberts, Randy Rosario, Ryan Eades

6.) DJ Baxendale, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, JT Chargois, Corey Williams, Dalton Hicks, Mason Melotakis, Christian Powell, Stuart Turner, Mitchell Garver

[Vervehound]

You are probably right actually. The more I'm thinking about it, they are tiered more. Kepler MAY be up with them but I think it will take another year to know that. Otherwise, it probably goes:

 

1.) Sano and Buxton

2.) Max Kepler, Jose Berrios, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia

3.) Polanco, Meija, Josmil Pinto, Trevor May, Kohl Stewart, Travis Harrison, Aaron Hicks

4.) Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Amaurys Minier, Lewis Thorpe, JD Williams, Niko Goodrum, Danny Santana, Daniel Ortiz, Felix Jorge, Yorman Landa

5.) Lewin Diaz, Landa, Angel Morales, Alex Wimmers, Nate Roberts, Randy Rosario, Ryan Eades

6.) DJ Baxendale, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, JT Chargois, Corey Williams, Dalton Hicks, Mason Melotakis, Christian Powell, Stuart Turner, Mitchell Garver

 

the most glaring issue is that kohl stewart is not in the same tier as travis harrison and jorge polanco. you could argue for either one or two. he'll fit in around the middle of the top 100 prospects in baseball at the end of the season with a somewhat impressive debut, higher if he shows up like berrios.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I can't agrue with the tiers most of the first two I agree with completely, I think Arcia is a one.I do note you have a thing for Kepler I do not.

[2wins87]

I'm not really into the idea of tiers, I think you lose a lot of context.

 

For example Kepler still has the potential to be an all star, but that's very uncertain, there's still a chance that he ends up as a bit of a bust as well. While Rosario looks to be a pretty good bet to be at least an average second basman, and he might make a few all star teams, but he doesn't really have that star potential.

 

Does that put them in the same tier? I have no idea.

[Zephrin]

You are probably right actually. The more I'm thinking about it, they are tiered more. Kepler MAY be up with them but I think it will take another year to know that. Otherwise, it probably goes:

 

1.) Sano and Buxton

2.) Max Kepler, Jose Berrios, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia

3.) Polanco, Meija, Josmil Pinto, Trevor May, Kohl Stewart, Travis Harrison, Aaron Hicks

4.) Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Amaurys Minier, Lewis Thorpe, JD Williams, Niko Goodrum, Danny Santana, Daniel Ortiz, Felix Jorge, Yorman Landa

5.) Lewin Diaz, Landa, Angel Morales, Alex Wimmers, Nate Roberts, Randy Rosario, Ryan Eades

6.) DJ Baxendale, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, JT Chargois, Corey Williams, Dalton Hicks, Mason Melotakis, Christian Powell, Stuart Turner, Mitchell Garver

 

The best thing about this is that if even half of the guys in the top two tiers become above average players and 1/5 of the guys in tier 3-6 become respectable big leaguers we have a damn good crop of homegrown talent.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

You are probably right actually. The more I'm thinking about it, they are tiered more. Kepler MAY be up with them but I think it will take another year to know that. Otherwise, it probably goes:

 

1.) Sano and Buxton

2.) Max Kepler, Jose Berrios, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia

3.) Polanco, Meija, Josmil Pinto, Trevor May, Kohl Stewart, Travis Harrison, Aaron Hicks

4.) Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Amaurys Minier, Lewis Thorpe, JD Williams, Niko Goodrum, Danny Santana, Daniel Ortiz, Felix Jorge, Yorman Landa

5.) Lewin Diaz, Landa, Angel Morales, Alex Wimmers, Nate Roberts, Randy Rosario, Ryan Eades

6.) DJ Baxendale, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, JT Chargois, Corey Williams, Dalton Hicks, Mason Melotakis, Christian Powell, Stuart Turner, Mitchell Garver

 

There is so much to like down on the farm. It is really exciting and a great distraction to the ongoing struggles of the big club.

 

The saddest thing about your list and tiers is that 2010 1st rounder Wimmers made it and he might be learning how to pitch left-handed for all we know but 2011 1st rounder Michael was (rightfully) excluded and no one has piped up with some support. Less than 3 years in and not a soul is still dreaming on the guy.

[Smcginnity]

There is so much to like down on the farm. It is really exciting and a great distraction to the ongoing struggles of the big club.

 

The saddest thing about your list and tiers is that 2010 1st rounder Wimmers made it and he might be learning how to pitch left-handed for all we know but 2011 1st rounder Michael was (rightfully) excluded and no one has piped up with some support. Less than 3 years in and not a soul is still dreaming on the guy.

 

Yes, that is totally sad...unfortunately. I think unless there is another A-Rod in future years, I don't think the Twins should draft a top 3 round Shortstop. Instead, go the free agent route or internationally.

 

There are some other guys I didn't mention on this list like Tonkin, Boyd, Wheeler, Slegers, Kuo Hua Lo, Tim Shibuya, AJ Atcher, Miguel Gonzalez, Solbach, Burris, Gonsalves....our minors are just crazy good! I'm ready to get rid of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Carrol, Correia, Pelfrey, and Perkins and get this started!

[maxisagod]

There is so much to like down on the farm. It is really exciting and a great distraction to the ongoing struggles of the big club.

 

The saddest thing about your list and tiers is that 2010 1st rounder Wimmers made it and he might be learning how to pitch left-handed for all we know but 2011 1st rounder Michael was (rightfully) excluded and no one has piped up with some support. Less than 3 years in and not a soul is still dreaming on the guy.

 

Both Michaels and Wimmer we're suppost to be low ceiling high floor picks, who's floors turned out to be much lower than expected. Some guys take a while to click though, both Plouffe and Span didn't click till they repeated AAA. They were low on a lot of people lists until fully developed.

[halfchest]

I didn't inculde stewart because he hasn't pitched a full season. Or gibson, aaron hicks, and arica all which I would in the well above average catagory but are in the bigs and don't really count. I'm going to get killed for hicks but I do like him he just needs at bats. Why they sent down Arcia to the minors twice is beyond me. I'm chairman of his ROY campaign if I maybe be so bold.

 

I just spent a little time on BBREF looking at Hicks and was really encouraged by what I saw. If you throw out his awful 10 game start where he was like 2-45 with 20 Ks(holy crap) he has a .709 OPS which is better than both Revere and Span. If you go further and throw out April he has a .722 OPS and if you throw out April and May he's hit .759 given that's only ten games but still. The point is that he's been slowly getting better as the season went on. When you add in the fact that he skipped AAA and missed three weeks when he was really heating up and has provided great defense throughout I'm more than excited for Mr. Hicks future. I'm already dreaming of the 2015 outfield defensively and offensively of Arcia/Buxton/Hicks. No one is getting an easy hit or taking an extra base on that trio.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I just spent a little time on BBREF looking at Hicks and was really encouraged by what I saw. If you throw out his awful 10 game start where he was like 2-45 with 20 Ks(holy crap) he has a .709 OPS which is better than both Revere and Span. If you go further and throw out April he has a .722 OPS and if you throw out April and May he's hit .759 given that's only ten games but still. The point is that he's been slowly getting better as the season went on. When you add in the fact that he skipped AAA and missed three weeks when he was really heating up and has provided great defense throughout I'm more than excited for Mr. Hicks future. I'm already dreaming of the 2015 outfield defensively and offensively of Arcia/Buxton/Hicks. No one is getting an easy hit or taking an extra base on that trio.

I like Hicks I think in my own opinion that he's going to be really good, to some extent he's frusterated me for time to time when he was in the minors. I've always thought that like buxton has now that he should have produced more but it is what it is, and I think he has a great future andpart of his struggles have to do with the fact that he was hitting leadoff, to start off the season. But my hope for him is to be batting 240 by the end of the season, which form where he was at the start of the season would be accomplishment.

[halfchest]

The big thing I look for him to improve on is his BB rate. He's never hit for a huge average even last year his breakout year he only hit .280 but his OBP has always been at least 100 points higher than his BA since his first year in pro ball. I think he can replicate that with more time. He may never be a star but he'll be a really nice bridge to Buxton and hopefully hit for enough power to justify RF in a couple years and be able to more than adequately fill in at CF and as a result give the Twins more bench flexibility by not needing a weak hitting fourth OF that can play defense.

[ericchri]

Assuming Buxton, Hicks, and Arcia all pan out, what happens if Kepler (and Walker, maybe, with various others as well) work out too? We have such a glut of outfielders. We're almost certainly trading a couple of them away long before they hit free agency. That to me seems a likely source of one of our future starting pitchers. We finally have some promising starters in the pipe, but reality says not all will live up to the hype (same could be said for the outfielders, of course), hopefully we can find a good one in a trade down the line.

[gunnarthor]

Assuming Buxton, Hicks, and Arcia all pan out, what happens if Kepler (and Walker, maybe, with various others as well) work out too? We have such a glut of outfielders. We're almost certainly trading a couple of them away long before they hit free agency. That to me seems a likely source of one of our future starting pitchers. We finally have some promising starters in the pipe, but reality says not all will live up to the hype (same could be said for the outfielders, of course), hopefully we can find a good one in a trade down the line.

 

Well, Arcia fields well enough that maybe we should start hoping he's our future DH. Kepler might become a first baseman. Obviously, the Twins have traded from strength before and probably will again.

[Shane Wahl]

Assuming Buxton, Hicks, and Arcia all pan out, what happens if Kepler (and Walker, maybe, with various others as well) work out too? We have such a glut of outfielders. We're almost certainly trading a couple of them away long before they hit free agency. That to me seems a likely source of one of our future starting pitchers. We finally have some promising starters in the pipe, but reality says not all will live up to the hype (same could be said for the outfielders, of course), hopefully we can find a good one in a trade down the line.

 

The OF/DH/1B/Bench 1 spots by 2015 and 2016 are going to mean an interesting battle if the majority of these guys pan out. With Arcia-Hicks-Parmelee now, it isn't that impressive and I am not counting on Arcia to be a decent enough OF. Anyway, the Twins will have Buxton in CF and Hicks in RF. Remaining will be 4 spots for Arcia, Ortiz, Walker, Kepler, Vargas, Harrison, and D. Hicks. And possibly Sano if 3B doesn't work out. Then there are guys like J.D. Williams who could make a push, too. Sano sticking at third is damn HUGE for the future. That is a very important thing and it must be something the Twins have to focus on in the offseason and spring training. Hopefully he does too.