NFL Draft stuff

[DocBauer]

Part of the 30 invites is "if we stay here". Part of the invites is projecting guys in the middle rounds they really like and might even move up for, though that would be really hard to do this year. But there's usually a collection of late round picks who might even become UDFA they want a closer look at to make a final examination of before they select them, or offer an UDFA contract to. There's probably a little of "if you aren't selected we're really interested in offering you a good deal" conversations taking place.

[DocBauer]

There's a handful of FA out there still waiting for deals that the Vikes could steal move on. And there will be more later as teams move on. And the second wave of FA might still offer up some interesting options, even as depth options. That's part of the reason things are so quiet right now.

As far as the draft, there are real reasons to just stay status quo and grab the VERY BEST players you can get in round 1 and 3 and grab a couple hopeful steals with the last 2 picks. 

With a great FA signing period and at least a little more $ to spend, maybe that makes the most sense with a deeper 2026 number of picks.

But I can easily see other teams looking at the Vikings as an opportunity to move up. Almost TOO MANY draft projections to count have them moving down a couple spots for an additional 3rd and 6th, for example. OR, even moving down TWICE, and getting out of the 1st round but getting 2nd and an additional 3rd or 4th/5th rounder for doing so.

IMO the worst thing Kwesi could do is mortgage the 2026 draft for the 2025 draft. But in a semi best scenario, he would drop down a couple of spots for an additional pick or two, unless there is just someone they just have to have. And they'd be pretty good at that point to still grab a solid #1 with another later pick.

Would it be crazy,  based  on some draft profiles that they would trade out of the 1st round? Not saying they should. I'm just wondering if ultimately trading out of the first round and gaining even more picks makes sense 

[DocBauer]

So i guess this question belongs HERE vs the offseason blog:

There is a very good chance at #24 the Vikes have a chance to select a difference maker at S, CB, DL, or OL. 

There's a pretty good chance they could trade back a couple of spots and add a couple picks and still stay in the 1st round and still get a potential difference maker while adding picks in the 4th round, maybe the 3rd round. 

Is it smarter to stay put, drop a couple picks and stay in the 1st, or drop down to the early 2nd round for additional capital? 

The team is well built, but a little old. A difference maker at say SAFETY or other positions makes sense. But does moving down make more sense to add additional youth at various positions and trust in the development of the coaching staff?

I'm honestly torn about trading down too far instead of cashing in on a potential difference maker, hoping for a really good #3 pick, and hoping again...as all teams do...at adding a solid development player or two in the 5th and 6th.

OBVIOUSLY, if the players coming off the board bring surprises, and the depth of talent starts to trickle down to the point where trading out of the first round could make sense. But what are you're initial thoughts? Stay the course? Trade down once? Trade down twice potentially? 

I kinda want to trade down ONCE and let it fly and bank on additional picks in 2026 to address more young talent.

[gunnarthor]

If any of these guys is there at 24, I'd be ok with just standing pat - OG Booker, either CB Barron or Johnson, DL Grant. There are some good safeties but how this draft plays out, they could fall into the second round and still be there if we trade down. And there are a number of solid DL types that I would be happy with - including Harmon who the Vikes have spent time with - that we should be able to get a good player to give depth this year and start down the line. 

Also, every draft there is that one guy who was a consensus top 10 who just falls for no reason. If it turns out to be the Boise State RB, I'd take him.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

If any of these guys is there at 24, I'd be ok with just standing pat - OG Booker, either CB Barron or Johnson, DL Grant. There are some good safeties but how this draft plays out, they could fall into the second round and still be there if we trade down. And there are a number of solid DL types that I would be happy with - including Harmon who the Vikes have spent time with - that we should be able to get a good player to give depth this year and start down the line. 

Also, every draft there is that one guy who was a consensus top 10 who just falls for no reason. If it turns out to be the Boise State RB, I'd take him.

I'll bet my life savings the RB doesn't get to MN.

I'd take the top safety, if he's still there. The safeties are slow in MN, and Smith is not playing after this year. But, I'd be good with any of the guys you list for sure. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll bet my life savings the RB doesn't get to MN.

I'd take the top safety, if he's still there. The safeties are slow in MN, and Smith is not playing after this year. But, I'd be good with any of the guys you list for sure. 

I like the thinking, but Metellus and Jackson might not be a bad combo to rely on either.  I'm still most in favor of trading down if possible.  My second choice is get one of these stud DTs.

[Vanimal46]

Draft thoughts 1 week away from the big day…

The media is doing everything they can to pump up this bad QB class. I don’t buy I for a second. 2 or less QBs get drafted in R1, and QB 2 whoever that may be will be taken at the end of the round. 

My bold prediction is 3 RBs taken in the 1st round, including 2 taken in the top 10. Just to be spicy I’ll predict Jeanty going 5 overall to Jacksonville, and Omarion Hampton going 10 to Chicago. 

[Mike Sixel]

The latest in the year no first round pick has been traded, I believe. 

I agree, we'll see two or three RBs in round one. Three QBs. You have to take a chance on QB if you don't have one. 

[Vanimal46]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The latest in the year no first round pick has been traded, I believe. 

I agree, we'll see two or three RBs in round one. Three QBs. You have to take a chance on QB if you don't have one. 

QB desperation is a hell of a drug. I wouldn’t put it past some teams reaching for a QB towards the end of R1. Personally I don’t see a significant difference between guys like Sanders and Dart projected to go 1st round, and the group of guys like Ewers, Gabriel, Howard projected to go 3rd round or later. 

[gunnarthor]

53 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

QB desperation is a hell of a drug. I wouldn’t put it past some teams reaching for a QB towards the end of R1. Personally I don’t see a significant difference between guys like Sanders and Dart projected to go 1st round, and the group of guys like Ewers, Gabriel, Howard projected to go 3rd round or later. 

I saw a mock that had 4 QBs taken in the first round. I think the Vikings biggest "problem" is that they have a handful of need areas - secondary, o-line, d-line - that can be addressed pretty well at pick 24, however they want (Starks, Harmon, Booker, Grant, etc). BUT a run on DL or safeties could happen in the second and third round and pick 97 might be sort of useless. Bad case would be we take someone like Starks at 24 and then 10 DL are taken before 97.

[Vanimal46]

34 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I saw a mock that had 4 QBs taken in the first round. I think the Vikings biggest "problem" is that they have a handful of need areas - secondary, o-line, d-line - that can be addressed pretty well at pick 24, however they want (Starks, Harmon, Booker, Grant, etc). BUT a run on DL or safeties could happen in the second and third round and pick 97 might be sort of useless. Bad case would be we take someone like Starks at 24 and then 10 DL are taken before 97.

Most mock drafts posted this close to draft day are sensationalized to get those clicks. 4 QBs in the 1st would be genuinely shocking. Good for us obviously because that will push really good players down the board… I’m not buying it though. Feels too much like 2022 when the draft people were trying to force Malik Willis 6th overall to Detroit. 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Most mock drafts posted this close to draft day are sensationalized to get those clicks. 4 QBs in the 1st would be genuinely shocking. Good for us obviously because that will push really good players down the board… I’m not buying it though. Feels too much like 2022 when the draft people were trying to force Malik Willis 6th overall to Detroit. 

They should have forced harder!!!!!

I'm guessing just two go, but I wouldn't be surprised if a third does.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Dart (or maybe Howard or Shough who are getting a lot of late-fake hype right now) go before Sanders. I think every team other than the Cowboys see Deion Sanders attached to this kid and using his platform to throw shade at everything but his son when the team loses, as a very, very scary thing. And he's only ever been coached by his dad? Another very, very scary thing.

No one's taking Milroe first round though. Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance have to have scarred teams off from trying that in round 1 again.

[gunnarthor]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They should have forced harder!!!!!

I'm guessing just two go, but I wouldn't be surprised if a third does.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Dart (or maybe Howard or Shough who are getting a lot of late-fake hype right now) go before Sanders. I think every team other than the Cowboys see Deion Sanders attached to this kid and using his platform to throw shade at everything but his son when the team loses, as a very, very scary thing. And he's only ever been coached by his dad? Another very, very scary thing.

No one's taking Milroe first round though. Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance have to have scarred teams off from trying that in round 1 again.

I think some team trades up for Dart before the Rams pick. It makes so much sense for the Rams to take him and let him sit and learn behind Stafford. Like, that's the ideal scenario for him and the Rams are a smart org. They know they need to plan something. I don't think Dart falls further than that.

I'm higher on Sanders than you are. I think he will be a solid NFL QB and, if he falls to the right team, maybe more than solid. But I don't think he's a top 5 type like Burrow or Manning were. 

As to the RBs (@vanimal46), I don't think Hampton goes in the top 20 and likely not in the first round. It's a deep RB draft and teams can get some good players in the 2nd or 3rd. I think we are much more likely to see a run on defensive linemen in the first. Teams ignored defense last year, then they saw the Eagles win with a monster front and the success of Rams DE Verse and they won't ignore it this year. Guys like Grant might be gone by 22.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

I think some team trades up for Dart before the Rams pick. It makes so much sense for the Rams to take him and let him sit and learn behind Stafford. Like, that's the ideal scenario for him and the Rams are a smart org. They know they need to plan something. I don't think Dart falls further than that.

I'm higher on Sanders than you are. I think he will be a solid NFL QB and, if he falls to the right team, maybe more than solid. But I don't think he's a top 5 type like Burrow or Manning were. 

As to the RBs (@vanimal46), I don't think Hampton goes in the top 20 and likely not in the first round. It's a deep RB draft and teams can get some good players in the 2nd or 3rd. I think we are much more likely to see a run on defensive linemen in the first. Teams ignored defense last year, then they saw the Eagles win with a monster front and the success of Rams DE Verse and they won't ignore it this year. Guys like Grant might be gone by 22.

Verse you say.....

[TheLeviathan]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Draft thoughts 1 week away from the big day…

The media is doing everything they can to pump up this bad QB class. I don’t buy I for a second. 2 or less QBs get drafted in R1, and QB 2 whoever that may be will be taken at the end of the round. 

My bold prediction is 3 RBs taken in the 1st round, including 2 taken in the top 10. Just to be spicy I’ll predict Jeanty going 5 overall to Jacksonville, and Omarion Hampton going 10 to Chicago. 

One thing that makes the QB predictions difficult is that next year's QB class doesn't look great either.  So....if you fall enough in love with Dart or even Shough.....do you overdraft them?

I'm not with you on the bold take, but I dig it, :)  

[TheLeviathan]

With a week left I think the Vikings trade back to the early 2nd and end up making at least 5 selections with these positions being most likely:

DT, RB, OL, TE, and WR.

I think a record number of front seven players go in the first round.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

With a week left I think the Vikings trade back to the early 2nd and end up making at least 5 selections with these positions being most likely:

DT, RB, OL, TE, and WR.

I think a record number of front seven players go in the first round.

LB over TE. Pace is not a three down guy. I'm also hoping safety, because they need speed, and need at least one the following year. 

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

LB over TE. Pace is not a three down guy. I'm also hoping safety, because they need speed, and need at least one the following year. 

I considered both of those, but I think they need a third tight end.  Mundt was on the field a lot and Hockenson isn't exactly reliable.  TE class is pretty good, LB class is pretty bad.

Safety you're probably right, I may have neglected that.  But something tells me Jay Ward is the new Theo Jackson.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I considered both of those, but I think they need a third tight end.  Mundt was on the field a lot and Hockenson isn't exactly reliable.  TE class is pretty good, LB class is pretty bad.

Safety you're probably right, I may have neglected that.  But something tells me Jay Ward is the new Theo Jackson.

I mean, I'm hoping they get all those! TE is likely a need also, I agree. I just think S is harder to learn, and if they get one this year, he's fully ready in 26.

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, I'm hoping they get all those! TE is likely a need also, I agree. I just think S is harder to learn, and if they get one this year, he's fully ready in 26.

If one of the higher ranked safeties is there, I'd be good with that.

Wonder if the Cine debacle squashes that though.....

[Danchat]

I've been crunching some draft betting odds, here is a response to some of the points you guys have brought up:

3 RBs going in the 1st round: 40% chance (Jeanty 99%, Hampton 94%, Henderson 43%, Judkins 3%)

Jaxson Dart going in the 1st round: 85% - I was initially believing that this was smoke but even the sources I trust are reporting that he's going in the 1st. I wouldn't even touch him in the 2nd round but teams be dumb!

Tyler Shough going in 1st round: 10%

The Shedeur Sanders numbers are conflicting. He's currently the favorite to go #9 but there is a lot of steam on him falling. If the Steelers don't take him at #21 I think he makes it to the 30s.

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Feels too much like 2022 when the draft people were trying to force Malik Willis 6th overall to Detroit. 

For me, the difference is that Willis was being mocked that whole offseason in the 1st round and it was a major shock that he fell to Round 3 as I had seen very few suggest that teams didn't like him.

Dart and Shough going Round 1 is more reminiscent of the annual mid-round QBs getting hyped out of nowhere. Hendon Hooker, Desmond Ridder, Drew Lock are recent examples. 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

LB over TE.

A Day 3 TE makes more sense, I think it is more likely than not they extend Josh Oliver and it's going to be >= $9M per year.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I've been crunching some draft betting odds, here is a response to some of the points you guys have brought up:

3 RBs going in the 1st round: 40% chance (Jeanty 99%, Hampton 94%, Henderson 43%, Judkins 3%)

Jaxson Dart going in the 1st round: 85% - I was initially believing that this was smoke but even the sources I trust are reporting that he's going in the 1st. I wouldn't even touch him in the 2nd round but teams be dumb!

Tyler Shough going in 1st round: 10%

The Shedeur Sanders numbers are conflicting. He's currently the favorite to go #9 but there is a lot of steam on him falling. If the Steelers don't take him at #21 I think he makes it to the 30s.

For me, the difference is that Willis was being mocked that whole offseason in the 1st round and it was a major shock that he fell to Round 3 as I had seen very few suggest that teams didn't like him.

Dart and Shough going Round 1 is more reminiscent of the annual mid-round QBs getting hyped out of nowhere. Hendon Hooker, Desmond Ridder, Drew Lock are recent examples. 

A Day 3 TE makes more sense, I think it is more likely than not they extend Josh Oliver and it's going to be >= $9M per year.

Your last paragraph is depressing

[gunnarthor]

I'm really on the fence on DL v secondary. On the one hand, reading these profiles of Starks and Emmanwori makes me want one of them and see what they can do in Flores' scheme. Emmanwori, in particular, sounds like a perfect fit. 6'3", fast, hard hitter, One place wrote about him "Think a more explosive version of Kam Chancellor with better man coverage skills." I mean, geez, yes, please. 

On the other hand, I want the Vikings to have someone like Akiem Hicks, who would just destroy the front of the pocket. 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

With a week left I think the Vikings trade back to the early 2nd and end up making at least 5 selections with these positions being most likely:

DT, RB, OL, TE, and WR.

I think a record number of front seven players go in the first round.

Ideally one of those QB desperate teams like New Orleans or Cleveland trades up to 24 

[Vanimal46]

One thing I think will happen is the Browns trying to get both Sanders and Hunter to keep that duo together in the pros. Plus, if Cleveland sucks again, they’re the ones crazy enough to hire Deion Sanders as HC in 2026. 

So, per Rich Hill trade chart, we'd trade #24 (237 pts) for #33 (180) #94 (41) and let's say a 2026 4th round pick.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

One thing I think will happen is the Browns trying to get both Sanders and Hunter to keep that duo together in the pros. Plus, if Cleveland sucks again, they’re the ones crazy enough to hire Deion Sanders as HC in 2026. 

So, per Rich Hill trade chart, we'd trade #24 (237 pts) for #33 (180) #94 (41) and let's say a 2026 4th round pick.

A different trade chart gives you #24 and #97 (852 pts) for #33, #67, and #192 (849.5 pts). I don't mind trading down so long as we get another pick in front of 97.

[Vanimal46]

20 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

A different trade chart gives you #24 and #97 (852 pts) for #33, #67, and #192 (849.5 pts). I don't mind trading down so long as we get another pick in front of 97.

Plus, add on the QB tax surcharge, and we hopefully get 33, 67, and maybe even 94 from the Browns. 4 picks to 7 picks just for trading down 9 slots. 

[TheLeviathan]

25 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Plus, add on the QB tax surcharge, and we hopefully get 33, 67, and maybe even 94 from the Browns. 4 picks to 7 picks just for trading down 9 slots. 

I think that's a real possibility.  The Vikings have set up next year's draft pick allocation about as perfectly as you can, leverage any QB in demand to get yourself another pick in the second/early third.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Plus, add on the QB tax surcharge, and we hopefully get 33, 67, and maybe even 94 from the Browns. 4 picks to 7 picks just for trading down 9 slots. 

That would be amazing. 

[gunnarthor]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That would be amazing. 

Agreed. All that said, I still think it's far more likely that we hold onto 24 than not.