Wishful thinking Scenario: Gallardo

[drjim]

If there is anything we can be assured of -it's that one good year from Liriano guarantees he has turned the corner.

 

I think you meant two months. That is exactly the sample size we need to declare Liriano is back.

[Guest USAFChief]

Money should be of absolutely no consequence to this team for the immediate future.

Nor the mid-term future. Like the next half decade. They have Mauer on the books, and nothing else, with the likelihood that many MLB-minimum contracts will be holding down full time jobs and nobody else needing a big payday for quite a while.

 

I guess it's just ingrained in us as Twins fans...we tend to think in terms of "the Twins can't possibly afford to do that, even if its a good idea."

 

When in reality, the Twins got a new stadium specifically because it would put them into a new financial arena. Not the top arena, but not the bottom any more either.

 

I don't know if Philly would be interested in salary relief (I tend to think they will, soon), or if Cliff Lee is the guy. But IMO salary shouldn't be a factor. It would be cheaper to take a pitcher like Lee off someone's hands than to go out and sign one, for that matter.

[Mike Sixel]

Every team gets $25MM in free revenue next year.....making cliff lee not look too expensive for several teams, I'd guess.....

 

As you may recall, Ryan has said several times that according to research, teams that dedicate too much money to 1-3 players do not do well. I'd guess that was him telling us there is no way he trades for, or signs, a guy like Cliff lee. Which bums me out, the guy can pitch.

[beckmt]

Would like to get Lee, if he is a salary dump, Twins have better low end prospects than most clubs, do not see the Phillies selling Lee or the Twins buying unless they stay close for the next month. Agree with Brock, very small chance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nor the mid-term future. Like the next half decade. They have Mauer on the books, and nothing else, with the likelihood that many MLB-minimum contracts will be holding down full time jobs and nobody else needing a big payday for quite a while.

 

This is where I disagree a bit. I think pretty much any contract three years or less is fine for this club.

 

But if the contract extends into year four or five, that's when some players might start getting raises and the Twins might actually be not only competitive, but very good.

 

And I'd like a little something in the piggy bank to try to push the team from "very good" to "great". If the team loads up on bad long-term contracts now, there's a good chance that those players will be completely ineffective when Arcia, Rosario, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, et al are in their primes and relatively cheap.

[drjim]

I highly doubt salary is the constraint in these situations. Much more about lack of pitchers available to acquire and the cost in prospects it will take to acquire said pitchers.

[Oxtung]

Lee would be an interesting player to get but depends on the prospects given up. If only there was a player with identical numbers to Cliff but maybe was a little younger, say 29, and didn't require you to give up any prospects. He probably would have been the perfect player to sign this last off season!

[TheLeviathan]

Lee won't be a dump. Philly is losing Utley and Young's contracts after this year which is a huge chunk of cash.

 

What they need is prospects for their depleted system. Lee will not be a dump, we can put that one to bed.

[Siehbiscuit]

Outside of Buxton, Sano and Meyer I would trade anyone in the minors for the right pitcher.

 

I agree with you on those three but I would throw in Rosario as well. Having a middle infielder with a bat like his is so hard to come by that I would need to throw him on that list too. Kohl Stewart can't be traded yet either, but he's on my can't touch list.

[TheLeviathan]

If you want to talk about possible dumps on the Philadelphia Phillies, the only one that applies is this:

 

Would you gamble 20M on Roy Halladay finding his way back to elite status?

[MWLFan]

Here is the thing about Rosario. Polanco is at CR right now and scalding the ball and is a middle infielder that is not transtitioning from OF. I have seen both play and it is real close between them as far offensive potential. Does having him make it easier to trade a Rosario or does he become a palatable replacement in the trade market? Now I would trade neither at this time for any of the pitchers mentioned as I don't see what the long term return is for the Twins with pitchers who are aging into low to mid 30's by the time the bulk of the minor leaguers are established in the MLB. Just wondering if the Rosario/Polanco dynamic changes anyones view of trading a middle infielder.

[Mike Sixel]

If you want to talk about possible dumps on the Philadelphia Phillies, the only one that applies is this:

 

Would you gamble 20M on Roy Halladay finding his way back to elite status?

 

No.

[nicksaviking]

If you want to talk about possible dumps on the Philadelphia Phillies, the only one that applies is this:

 

Would you gamble 20M on Roy Halladay finding his way back to elite status?

 

Halladay is a free agent after the season. Unless you are talking about picking up the option. In that case you could likely still offer $10 million on the FA market and still be top dollar. If $10 million doesn't cut it, surely $15 would.

[Red Bull]

Unless the player is a 32+ yr old pitcher or position player they will always cost to much for the Twins.

[drjim]

Here is the thing about Rosario. Polanco is at CR right now and scalding the ball and is a middle infielder that is not transtitioning from OF. I have seen both play and it is real close between them as far offensive potential. Does having him make it easier to trade a Rosario or does he become a palatable replacement in the trade market? Now I would trade neither at this time for any of the pitchers mentioned as I don't see what the long term return is for the Twins with pitchers who are aging into low to mid 30's by the time the bulk of the minor leaguers are established in the MLB. Just wondering if the Rosario/Polanco dynamic changes anyones view of trading a middle infielder.

 

This is a big part of my thinking. I really like Rosario and think he will be a nice player, but he is not an elite difference maker like the others mentioned and there are other options in the system (and maybe even Dozier figures it out). That type of asset can be traded for the right pitcher. As mentioned though that is not Gallardo.

[Oxtung]

Halladay is a free agent after the season. Unless you are talking about picking up the option. In that case you could likely still offer $10 million on the FA market and still be top dollar. If $10 million doesn't cut it, surely $15 would.

 

Halladay's option is a vesting option that he won't reach. Can you "pick up" an option like that?

[TheLeviathan]

Halladay is a free agent after the season. Unless you are talking about picking up the option. In that case you could likely still offer $10 million on the FA market and still be top dollar. If $10 million doesn't cut it, surely $15 would.

 

I know it is an option that kicks in automatically if certain marks are met, but I had the impression it was a player option. One I'm sure he takes at tht price.

 

for the record, I don't make that gamble either, but it's preposterous to think Lee will be a dump.

[chopper0080]

I like the idea of acquiring a Lee or a Gallardo, but I don't think either of those would be an option for the Twins. Like many have said, I cant' see the Phillies dumping Lee, and Gallardo would probably take a haul to acquire, though he is in the right age range if you could get a buy low deal. The problem would stem from the Twins re-signing him.

 

Halladay and AJ Burnett are two vets who should be available in the offseason and who I hope the Twins pursue. Both are old enough to warrant a shorter deal, and the Twins are going to need to take a shot at a top end pitcher at some time. Halladay would be my preference because of his ability to generate ground balls and his HR rate should decrease a bit in the Twins park.

 

Like may have said, once Morneau is off the books, only Mauer will command a large salary. The Twins should not be too concerned with the money aspect and will just need to stay away from 5+ year deals.

[nicksaviking]

Halladay's option is a vesting option that he won't reach. Can you "pick up" an option like that?

 

I know it is an option that kicks in automatically if certain marks are met, but I had the impression it was a player option. One I'm sure he takes at tht price.

 

for the record, I don't make that gamble either, but it's preposterous to think Lee will be a dump.

 

Vesting option it is. So a trade for him would only be a rental and last I heard his season is in jeopordy.

[Oxtung]

Vesting option it is. So a trade for him would only be a rental and last I heard his season is in jeopordy.

 

That said if the Phillies are looking for a pure salary dump it sure would be fun to watch him pitch here for half a season. Who knows, perhaps he could provide a little magic!