Stats Show Twins' Pitching Was the Opposite of Clutch. Why?

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

AVG/OBP/SLG are irrelevant to FWAR. 

And fWAR is completely irrelevant to the AVG/OBP/SLG numbers with runners on base that were quoted in the article. Defense is a big part of why the run prevention with runners on base was so bad.

The premise of the article is "the pitchers were bad in the clutch". I'm saying the defense was really bad in the clutch and you have to take out that contribution before you can determine how good the pitchers were with runners on base. fWAR does that to some extent - it shows the Twins pitchers were still striking out batters while avoiding walks and HR even when there were runners on base. When the batters put the ball in play with runners on their batting average was a LOT higher, but the ISO OBP wasn't because the pitchers were still avoiding walks.

This analysis really needs to go one level deeper to determine how much of the poor run prevention with runners on base is bad defense and how much of it is the pitchers giving up more hard contact.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Is it possible the clutch stats look bad is really that the non-clutch stats are inflated? We did play the White Sox a bunch more than other teams. I do agree infield defense was shabby and played a part. 

[Brett]

This is a great conversation. I think, in general, that we often try to reduce outcomes to the result of an equation. But players aren’t robots, and we’ll never completely know what they’re thinking about or how they’re feeling on any given day. Defining the intangibles is tough; quantifying them is damn near impossible.

I watch games because of the uncertainty, not because I know what the final score should be.

[stringer bell]

39 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Is it possible the clutch stats look bad is really that the non-clutch stats are inflated? We did play the White Sox a bunch more than other teams. I do agree infield defense was shabby and played a part. 

Why would non-clutch stats be inflated? If a team has lousy defense shouldn't that show up equally during the high and low leverage stats?

All the AL Central teams played the White Sox 13 times--perhaps that is how the top three pitchers in the AL were from the Central. 

[bean5302]

On 12/1/2024 at 6:50 PM, USAFChief said:

bWAR for pitchers uses RA9.

It might use RA 9 as a component, but there are major adjustments I don't understand.

Jose Berrios ERA 3.60, ERA+ 112, RA9 3.70, 192.1 IP = 2.2 bWAR
Aaron Nola ERA 3.57, ERA+ 114, RA 9, 3.79, 199.1 IP = 3.6 bWAR

As far as I'm concerned Baseball Reference has some issues in WAR calculation.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It might use RA 9 as a component, but there are major adjustments I don't understand.

Jose Berrios ERA 3.60, ERA+ 112, RA9 3.70, 192.1 IP = 2.2 bWAR
Aaron Nola ERA 3.57, ERA+ 114, RA 9, 3.79, 199.1 IP = 3.6 bWAR

As far as I'm concerned Baseball Reference has some issues in WAR calculation.

There is an adjustment for team defense. This can distort the end result if you have a flyball pitcher pitching in front of a team with the best infield defense, for example.

 

 

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There is an adjustment for team defense. This can distort the end result if you have a flyball pitcher pitching in front of a team with the best infield defense, for example.

 

 

Yeah, probably broken like it was a few years ago with BR's positional adjustments being double counted in their metrics. 2.2 vs 3.6 WAR is enormous for the same results. Using RA/9 + some broken DRS adjustment might make a big difference. It could be Daulton Varsho who was credited with a broken +28 defensive runs saved last year.

I don't know exactly how BR is doing their WAR adjustment, but it's not trustworthy IMHO.

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know exactly how BR is doing their WAR adjustment, but it's not trustworthy IMHO.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

xRA_def = (BIP_pitcher)/(BIP_team) * TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

Then they adjust for park factors and finally adjust to make starters look worse than relievers.

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

xRA_def = (BIP_pitcher)/(BIP_team) * TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

Then they adjust for park factors and finally adjust to make starters look worse than relievers.

 

So broken. They're just throwing a whole kitchen sink full of questionable variables at it. I'm just going to stick with not trusting it. Berrios being worth dramatically less than Nola doesn't work for me.