Which AL Central Contender Has the Easiest Schedule?

[Cody Christie]

Three contenders have emerged for the 2024 AL Central crown. Here’s a look at the teams' remaining strength of schedule with the most critical series left on the calendar. 

Image courtesy of Matt Marton, David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

As the MLB regular season approaches its final month, the race for the AL Central title is heating up. Three teams are vying for the crown: the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, and Kansas City Royals. Each team's remaining schedule will play a crucial role in determining who comes out on top. Let’s break down the remaining strength of schedule for these contenders and analyze how their paths might affect their chances of clinching the division.

Minnesota Twins
Current Record: 73-62  
Remaining Games: 27
The Twins are currently in third place in the AL Central standings but have their sights set on winning the division for the second consecutive season. Here’s what their remaining schedule looks like:

Divisional Matchups: The Twins have a significant number of games left within the division, including series against both the Guardians (four games) and Royals (three games). These head-to-head matchups will be pivotal, as they can either solidify their lead or give other teams a chance to catch up.

Opponents' Winning Percentage: The Twins face opponents with a combined winning percentage of around .495, baseball’s 15th-ranked strength of schedule. However, they still have series against solid teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox, which could pose challenges.

Home vs. Away Games: The Twins will play a majority of their remaining games at home, where they have been stronger this season. Their performance at Target Field will be vital in catching the teams ahead of them in the standings.

Key Series to Watch: A late-season series against the Guardians or Royals could decide the AL Central race. Outside those series, the Twins must capitalize on their home-field advantage in other critical matchups.

Cleveland Guardians
Current Record: 77-59  
Remaining Games: 26
The Guardians have been in the mix all season, thanks to their solid pitching and timely hitting. Here's how their schedule shapes up:

Divisional Matchups: Like the Twins, the Guardians have several games remaining against AL Central rivals, including head-to-head matchups with Minnesota (four games) and Kansas City (three games). Winning these games is essential for them to hold their lead. 

Opponents' Winning Percentage: The Guardians’ remaining schedule features teams with a combined winning percentage of around .490, baseball’s 21st-ranked strength of schedule. A three-game series against the lowly White Sox is why Cleveland has the easiest remaining schedule among this group. 

Home vs. Away Games: The Guardians more home games than away games remaining on their schedule. However, they have struggled on the road this season, which could pose a challenge as they play important series away from Progressive Field.

Key Series to Watch: The Guardians play the Dodgers and the Astros in the season's final month, two other teams vying for division titles. Cleveland also needs to hold serve against other AL Central foes to win the division. 

Kansas City Royals
Current Record: 75-62  
Remaining Games: 25
The Royals have fought back in the race to make a real playoff push for the first time since 2015. Here’s what to know about their schedule:

Divisional Matchups: The Royals host both the Twins and Guardians in the season’s final month. If KC wants a shot at the division, it will be critical to protect their home field.  

Opponents' Winning Percentage: The Royals face a challenging slate of games with opponents' winning percentages hovering above .519. This includes series against contenders like the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and Atlanta Braves. Only five teams have a harder remaining strength of schedule. 

Home vs. Away Games: Kansas City plays a significant number of its remaining games on the road, with a record of around .500. They must continue to perform well in home games to win the division. 

Key Series to Watch: The Royals' series against the Twins and Guardians will be telling; defeating their division rivals can put them in place for a division crown. However, other challenging series against contending teams will prove if KC is a contender or pretender. 

The AL Central title race is far from decided. Divisional matchups and series against other playoff hopefuls will be decisive. For the Twins, maintaining their lead through home dominance and navigating tough matchups will be critical. The Guardians will need to perform well on the road and capitalize on their slightly easier schedule to stay at the top. At the same time, Kansas City must continue to prove their doubters wrong. As the regular season's final month unfolds, every game will matter in what promises to be an exciting race for the AL Central crown.

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Who ends up winning the division? Will the other contenders earn a Wild Card spot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[tampatwins]

no one is talking about it, but the Boston series may be the make or break series for the Twins to even make the playoffs if they dont get out of this funk theyre in....let alone the division

[Karbo]

IMO a better indicator of schedule strength would be teams record since the all star break. Some teams went out and got players to help them down the stretch.

[Aerodeliria]

Detroit could make a run as they play some very bad teams down the stretch...it is not hard to imagine them winning 10-12 from the worst group...

[SwainZag]

I think KC has a ton of future potential and Bobby Witt Jr is an absolute superstar, but their offense isn't deep and with losing Pasquantino they are really thin.  Not counting them out, but with who they have to play, I expect them to fade.

I still think the Twins have the best team in the division, despite Cleveland's record and bonkers bullpen.  That 4 game series on the road against the Guardians in 2 weeks looms so huge.  

[Tiantwindup]

Would you rather finish sixth and play Houston or fifth and play Yankees/Orioles?  Winning division is the goal, but if wildcard then maybe being behind KC is a better place to be…

[Old Crow]

What really matters is who is hot and who is not fx. the '23 Rangers.

[twinfan]

There are no such things as easy games right now. If you play the White Sox, you could face Croset (sp). If you play a team out of contention, you're likely going to face players/pitchers you haven't seen and would be hard to scout. Plus those teams are loose, players are playing to impress and they can let it all hang out. If you play a contender, there is the tension of each game meaning 2 games in the standings.

Let's get healthy and get the bats going again, stay in the games early and win our share (16 out of the 27 left) to get in.