Options to shed salary...after 2024

[cmoss84]

Where are we most likely to shed salary, if we do at all, after this season? Here are my thoughts-what are yours?

Correa: not likely, but these teams need a SS and spend money: ARI, St. Louis, SF, Boston and LAA. 

Pablo: doubtful, but with pitching at a premium, would we pull the trigger if someone overpays?

Buxton: I'm in the minority, but I think we need to deal him in off-season. He has 4/60 left-might have some suitors.

Vasquez: Would be a miracle, but not likely at $10.

Paddock: Do we trade him for some lotto tickets?

It seems like we would have decent replacements in the wings for all of these gentlemen. What kind of deal would it take for you to be satisfied? Can we pull off another AJ Pierzynski miracle? 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

It seems like we would have decent replacements in the wings for all of these gentlemen. What kind of deal would it take for you to be satisfied? Can we pull off another AJ Pierzynski miracle? 

It does -- by what set of reality facts do you make that statement?

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

It does -- by what set of reality facts do you make that statement?

A few things to keep in mind:

1. IF we traded them, we are not dropping them. We get humans back in return,

2. IF we trade them, we free up money-money that can be spent in free agency.

3. If we free up a significant amount of money, this opens up other trade possibilities. 

Not counting our returns on trades/FA, here are a few names:

Position players

Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Keirsey, Michael Helman, Eeles, Yunior Severino, Camargo, Chris Williams, Ricardo Olivar, the E-man

Pitchers

Zebby, Festa, Raya, Morris  

[RpR]

11 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

A few things to keep in mind:

1. IF we traded them, we are not dropping them. We get humans back in return,

2. IF we trade them, we free up money-money that can be spent in free agency.

3. If we free up a significant amount of money, this opens up other trade possibilities. 

Not counting our returns on trades/FA, here are a few names:

Position players

Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Keirsey, Michael Helman, Eeles, Yunior Severino, Camargo, Chris Williams, Ricardo Olivar, the E-man

Pitchers

Zebby, Festa, Raya, Morris  

Crap shoot on the best days; Twins are trying to remain Postseason  capable, not be a AAA wannabe.

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

2. IF we trade them, we free up money-money that can be spent in free agency.

This logic has always puzzled me.  Why wouldn't the team we want to trade our expensive guy to, not simply apply the same funds toward picking up the guys you want in free agency?

For example trading away Pablo would certainly free up funds, but FA starting pitchers are expensive so would we actually come out ahead with some new guy?  And if yes: why wouldn't that other team just sign that better guy?

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

This logic has always puzzled me.  Why wouldn't the team we want to trade our expensive guy to, not simply apply the same funds toward picking up the guys you want in free agency?

For example trading away Pablo would certainly free up funds, but FA starting pitchers are expensive so would we actually come out ahead with some new guy?  And if yes: why wouldn't that other team just sign that better guy?

My thoughts are this:

Let's say no more Goldy in St. Louis. Let's say they want Correa. We make a trade for prospects...then sign a need for cheaper.

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Crap shoot on the best days; Twins are trying to remain Postseason  capable, not be a AAA wannabe.

So you don't think we get any value back from those guys?

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

So you don't think we get any value back from those guys?

We won't get players as good as these guys.

[cmoss84]

You could've at least gave me a thumbs down 😆

[ashbury]

58 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

My thoughts are this:

Let's say no more Goldy in St. Louis. Let's say they want Correa. We make a trade for prospects...then sign a need for cheaper.

Just to be clear, I don't mean to totally disparage your idea.  When I play OOTP on my computer, that's the first thing I do when I take over a new (bad) team - package up the bad contracts signed by my incompetent predecessor with whatever assortment of middling prospects I must, to get out from under the commitment, and then spend the savings on better players.  But - it's a game. There's 29 other AI GM's and one of them will randomly value player X more than the others so I drive a hard bargain with that one.  And the scouting/evaluation I'm given is pretty good and probably better than in real life (though the game does go to the effort of fuzzing up the forecasts and sometimes you acquire a sure-thing player who turns out to be anything but) so my FA signings and/or trades are usually wise.

But in the game, it allows me to be a real jerk in how I negotiate down to the last dollar, and IRL no one would answer my phone calls after the first few months of my tenure as GM - "it's just a game" and they leave in some things that keep it fun.  It's a lot harder for FalVine to put a strategy like this in action.  Unloading Josh Donaldson cost us quite a bit, as a cautionary tale.

And the example of Correa is a big gamble.  I like Brooks Lee a lot, but Correa is a top-10 SS in the majors, and "when healthy" he's perhaps behind only guys named Gunnar and Witt. Conversely, Correa is an injury risk - but so far we are seeing Lee as also an injury risk, and there's also the open question of whether his bat will ever be like Correa's has been this year. (I assume you aren't thinking of installing Royce Lewis as the everyday SS, but while the bat perhaps will remain Correa-like there are similar and stronger arguments about injury risk plus his reliability on defense is more of a question than a year ago.)

Also, good as Correa is, with his injury risk he's probably "fully priced" at his present contract, and would bring back less than a haul in prospects - maybe no one significant at all.

IOW your idea is likely a downgrade at SS in 2025, while the "need" you didn't specify to fill could be as scarce as hens' teeth when you actually go to make an offer (in FA, or to trade for a large contract), and the return in prospect capital could be small (or even negative, if you do a second trade).  If Lee's bat isn't ready to make him a star next year, there's a big chance you unload one hefty contract just to take on another at a different position, and at best you are hoping for a wash, overall, after the downgrade at SS.  It's a big bet on one player (Lee).

Again, the plan to free up money isn't crazy, but executing the plan is difficult and perhaps not reasonably possible.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Twins are trying to remain Postseason  capable, not be a AAA wannabe.

Then they should dump Chris Paddack.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

We won't get players as good as these guys.

So your position is the front office is incompetent and should be fired because they lose all their trades.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So your position is the front office is incompetent and should be fired because they lose all their trades.

Hey that’s my position! 🙂

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins have $91-92 committed to the five players listed here.

Back of the napkin math, that will leave about 40-45 million for the other 21 players on the roster, or about 2 million per player / roster spot. 

Someone smarter than me can go through and do the rest of the math on what bonuses are out there due, what arb raises to expect, a Margot buyout, Dobnak’s guarantee, and so on, to get a more accurate estimate. Jeffers and Ober figure to get nice raises. Even by not bringing back Kepler, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that the Twins don’t have much money for free agents next year, not even money for cheaper guys like farmer or Santana. 

If they can pull off a trade like you suggest, @cmoss84 then they should absolutely do it. Start high.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

So your position is the front office is incompetent and should be fired because they lose all their trades.

No, I have few opinions about the fron office.

[cmoss84]

On 8/24/2024 at 2:01 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

Another example of a hypothetical Correa trade:

Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, and prospects. 

Use SOME of saved money on pitching...such as...________

A ton of FA out there.

Also maybe an Amed Rosario.

Maybe shoot for saving $10.

 

[tony&rodney]

Maybe it would be useful to remember there are players with no trade contracts.

[cmoss84]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe it would be useful to remember there are players with no trade contracts.

Good point. And obviously a team would have to be in love with CC. But the 5 teams I listed are contenders and/or large cities...not horrible situations by any means.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Good point. And obviously a team would have to be in love with CC. But the 5 teams I listed are contenders and/or large cities...not horrible situations by any means.

Players with NTC have agreed to go in a trade to another team, yes. I'm not able to recall anyone who did so with significant years and money left on their deals who are vaguely similar to either Buxton or Correa. Big money, the years remaining, and injury prone reduces the field pretty much to zero. Additionally, most players who set aside their NTC also receive some type of extra remuneration. There must be an example of someone agreeing to waive their NTC (big $/ multiple years/ injury history), but I can't think of anyone similar.

[cmoss84]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Players with NTC have agreed to go in a trade to another team, yes. I'm not able to recall anyone who did so with significant years and money left on their deals who are vaguely similar to either Buxton or Correa. Big money, the years remaining, and injury prone reduces the field pretty much to zero. Additionally, most players who set aside their NTC also receive some type of extra remuneration. There must be an example of someone agreeing to waive their NTC (big $/ multiple years/ injury history), but I can't think of anyone similar.

MLB: Fred McGriff, Mike Stanton

NBA: DeAngelo Russell, Kobe agreed, but it never happened. Bradley Beal. 

Not saying it is likely-but it is possible. 

[laloesch]

On 8/24/2024 at 5:01 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The Twins have $91-92 committed to the five players listed here.

Back of the napkin math, that will leave about 40-45 million for the other 21 players on the roster, or about 2 million per player / roster spot. 

Someone smarter than me can go through and do the rest of the math on what bonuses are out there due, what arb raises to expect, a Margot buyout, Dobnak’s guarantee, and so on, to get a more accurate estimate. Jeffers and Ober figure to get nice raises. Even by not bringing back Kepler, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that the Twins don’t have much money for free agents next year, not even money for cheaper guys like farmer or Santana. 

If they can pull off a trade like you suggest, @cmoss84 then they should absolutely do it. Start high.

this post has aged well.

[tony&rodney]

On 8/23/2024 at 5:09 PM, cmoss84 said:

but these teams need a SS and spend money: ARI, St. Louis, SF, Boston and LAA. 

I'm not sure how this popped back up but we can see that none of these teams are looking for shortstops unless they are given away for a low price or to play another position. 

Arizona has a gem in Perdomo, who was injured a bit this year.

St. Louis has Masyn Winn, strongest arm in baseball perhaps.

San Francisco has broken in Tyler Fitzgerald with some good luck.

Boston will have Trevor Story back and Ceddanne Rafaela is wiz at both SS and CF.

Los Angeles Angels have Zach Neto, who they like enough for now. 

Correa is a Twins a while most likely. Of course, anything can happen but it would be a big surprise if the Twins could trade Correa.

Best bets, if the team looks to reduce salaries, are Paddack, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Castro, and pitchers making more than the minimum. Buxton, Correa, and Vzquez would be difficult to trade. I don't think the Twins need to shed salaries.

[cmoss84]

On 10/18/2024 at 11:41 AM, tony&rodney said:

I'm not sure how this popped back up but we can see that none of these teams are looking for shortstops unless they are given away for a low price or to play another position. 

Arizona has a gem in Perdomo, who was injured a bit this year.

St. Louis has Masyn Winn, strongest arm in baseball perhaps.

San Francisco has broken in Tyler Fitzgerald with some good luck.

Boston will have Trevor Story back and Ceddanne Rafaela is wiz at both SS and CF.

Los Angeles Angels have Zach Neto, who they like enough for now. 

Correa is a Twins a while most likely. Of course, anything can happen but it would be a big surprise if the Twins could trade Correa.

Best bets, if the team looks to reduce salaries, are Paddack, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Castro, and pitchers making more than the minimum. Buxton, Correa, and Vzquez would be difficult to trade. I don't think the Twins need to shed salaries.

You think all of those teams would rather have those SS than Correa? 

Perdomo 3HR. 37 RBI, .718 OPS

Winn is a nice player with a little more upside. 

Was Fitzgerald a flash in the pan? Moot point, as they already were scared off by CC's health.

Boston could go either way. 

Neto could easily switch positions. 

I would say it is a long shot we trade CC, but not impossible. 

How about Arenado and Wynn for Correa and Buxton? :)

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

You think all of those teams would rather have those SS than Correa? 

Given 2024, yes, all those teams prefer their shortstops. I say this and I really like Correa and hope he stays a Twin. Objectively, Correa does not hold much value to other teams given his health and contract.