3 Keys to Stopping the Brewers (From A Brewers Fan)

[Jason Wang]

How can the Twins emerge victorious in the latest episode of this classic midwestern matchup?

Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

 

Despite the Brewers being in a more comfortable divisional spot, they’re a pretty even match for the Baldelli Brigade. Both teams are within one win of each other, and although the Brewers have a slightly better run differential (+79 vs. +47), the Twins have a slightly better team OPS (.751 vs. .733). A series sweep could put them within striking distance of the dastardly Guardians, so what are some weak spots Minnesota can exploit?

The Rotation is as Weak as It Has Ever Been 
It must be nice over there in Minneapolis, with a healthy rotation full of players with two functioning arms. Is it the best rotation in baseball? Surely you know the answer to that but don’t fret. The Twins will be at the top of their rotation in these two games, trotting out Pablo López (5.11 ERA) and Joe Ryan (3.53 ERA). Meanwhile, the Brewers will use Freddy Peralta (4.11) and Aaron Civale (4.94 ERA). Depending on your belief in Pablo and whether he’s been scammed by the stats so far, Minnesota arguably has a leg up in terms of starting pitching in this series.

To make matters worse for the Brewers, the Twins lineup has been swinging lately, posting a .819 team OPS since June 1st, second only to the Mets. Furthermore, their offense will work especially well against Peralta and Civale. 

Peralta predominantly throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. In 2024, the Twins have a combined .784 OPS against those pitches, the best in MLB. They may struggle a little more with Civale’s cutter/sinker/sweeper combination, but honestly, the person who has struggled the most with his arsenal this year has been Civale himself. Since arriving in Milwaukee, he has a 5.46 FIP and 1.41 WHIP over two starts. Over 17 starts with the Rays. He had a 5.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, so it’s safe to say that it might not be his year.

Don’t Let Them Steal
Like a refrigerator, the Brewers are most effective when they’re running. They’re second in MLB in stolen bases with a whopping 133, 87 more than the Twins’ figure of 46. The main suspects will be known as speedsters Brice Turang and Christian Yelich, who have stolen a combined 51 bags. While lacking the same on-base skills, Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick have top-decile sprint speed and have been known to snag bases when given the chance to do so, combining for 28 between them. 

Unfortunately, neither Ryan Jeffers nor Christian Vázquez are particularly adept at preventing the run game. Luckily, there are other ways to prevent the opposing team from making a break from it. More diligent pickoff attempts and intentional infielder positioning are just a few ways to stop Milwaukee in its tracks. If you want to be less ethical about it, you can always send Justin Topa to pull a Nancy Kerrigan job since he isn’t doing much these days.

Pitch To Them - It Won’t Hurt
Like an empty soda fountain, the Brewers ain’t got no pop, at least not since June 1st. They’re slugging just .371, 26th in MLB, and their .123 ISO is the worst in MLB since then. Their 33 home runs are 29th in MLB, just one more than the last-place Marlins. What has been limiting their power? They’re hitting ground balls at a 47.1% clip, the highest in MLB over this span. This poor quality of contact has drastically limited their ability to put runs on the board.

López and Ryan both have strikeout rates >27.0%. Even if they’re not fanning hitters, they could still collect some outs through soft contact. Even if the Crew logs hits, they may be limited to singles with few extra-base hits. Without a real power/RBI threat other than maybe Willy Adames, the Twins shouldn’t be too worried about unloading their heat onto the Milwaukee men.

It’ll be a great pair of games, and with this year’s head-to-head results currently at 1-1, hopefully, we’ll get a definitive ending to this DiamondCentric derby.

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[LambchoP]

Twins just need to get everyone healthy first. Then, keep them healthy for the playoffs. Also, when we play our games against the Guardians, Rocco better not decide it's the perfect time to give random days off to Buxton, Miranda, Correa and Lewis. We won't win those must win games running out a lineup of Vasquez, Margot and Farmer....

[mikelink45]

My formula is simpler - score more runs than they do.  Lopez is not giving me great confidence so I need the bats to be working!  Brewers are like the Guardians - figuring out how to manufacture runs, take advantage of opportunities. 

[Colbeh]

Enjoyed this type of write up! 

[Colbeh]

4 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Twins just need to get everyone healthy first. Then, keep them healthy for the playoffs. Also, when we play our games against the Guardians, Rocco better not decide it's the perfect time to give random days off to Buxton, Miranda, Correa and Lewis. We won't win those must win games running out a lineup of Vasquez, Margot and Farmer....

I agree. Keep the players healthy and rested over the next month or so but play them against the Guards, Royals, and a few other teams that are hanging around the AL playoff spots. 

[wabene]

Nice article @Jason Wang. Are you a writer at Brewer Fanatic or merely a fan such as myself? 

It is interesting to look at Christian Yelich's career. After a fantastic star-making start, he really dropped off for a few years before picking it up last year and now just crushing this year. Is there any explanation for this from those in the know? I'm guessing an injury in 2020.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, wabene said:

Nice article @Jason Wang. Are you a writer at Brewer Fanatic or merely a fan such as myself? 

It is interesting to look at Christian Yelich's career. After a fantastic star-making start, he really dropped off for a few years before picking it up last year and now just crushing this year. Is there any explanation for this from those in the know? I'm guessing an injury in 2020.

Jason is one of our Brewer Fanatic writers.

As for Yelich, it appears that a balky back was the root of a lot of his issues. It was never clear exactly why his swing changed but he started killing worms at an elite rate, which is not something you want to do as a hitter. A lot like late-career Joe Mauer, honestly. Last year, it showed signs of changing and this year, he's damned near MVP-level Yelich again.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

My formula is simpler - score more runs than they do.  Lopez is not giving me great confidence so I need the bats to be working!  Brewers are like the Guardians - figuring out how to manufacture runs, take advantage of opportunities. 

I tend to agree.  It all looks like it might be easy for the Twins but if the bats don't have it and it is a close game, a walk, stolen base and bloop hit seem to be the things that kill us at some point.  I hope the Twins win two but this type of team seems to be their kryptonite.

[Jason Wang]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Nice article @Jason Wang. Are you a writer at Brewer Fanatic or merely a fan such as myself? 

It is interesting to look at Christian Yelich's career. After a fantastic star-making start, he really dropped off for a few years before picking it up last year and now just crushing this year. Is there any explanation for this from those in the know? I'm guessing an injury in 2020.

 

 

pretty much i do whatever brock tells me to 

To add on to what Brock said, Yelich has always hit the ball really hard and his exit velocity/quality of contact numbers have been consistently good, but the biggest hindrance since 2019 has been his low launch angle. From 2021 to 2023, he averaged a launch angle <4 degrees which gave him ground-ball rates of 55%+ for each of those years.

This year, he's sitting at an average launch angle of 5.5 degrees and hitting the Statcast sweet spot more often. He's also striking out less. his 18.5% strikeout rate is lower than any season mark he's ever had. 

There's probably more nitty-gritty stuff that's feeding into it but that's the high level gist, at least to a lowly Brewer Fanatic Contributor such as myself.