3 Keys to Stopping the Brewers (From A Brewers Fan)

Despite the Brewers being in a more comfortable divisional spot, they’re a pretty even match for the Baldelli Brigade. Both teams are within one win of each other, and although the Brewers have a slightly better run differential (+79 vs. +47), the Twins have a slightly better team OPS (.751 vs. .733). A series sweep could put them within striking distance of the dastardly Guardians, so what are some weak spots Minnesota can exploit?

The Rotation is as Weak as It Has Ever Been 
It must be nice over there in Minneapolis, with a healthy rotation full of players with two functioning arms. Is it the best rotation in baseball? Surely you know the answer to that but don’t fret. The Twins will be at the top of their rotation in these two games, trotting out Pablo López (5.11 ERA) and Joe Ryan (3.53 ERA). Meanwhile, the Brewers will use Freddy Peralta (4.11) and Aaron Civale (4.94 ERA). Depending on your belief in Pablo and whether he’s been scammed by the stats so far, Minnesota arguably has a leg up in terms of starting pitching in this series.

To make matters worse for the Brewers, the Twins lineup has been swinging lately, posting a .819 team OPS since June 1st, second only to the Mets. Furthermore, their offense will work especially well against Peralta and Civale. 

Peralta predominantly throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. In 2024, the Twins have a combined .784 OPS against those pitches, the best in MLB. They may struggle a little more with Civale’s cutter/sinker/sweeper combination, but honestly, the person who has struggled the most with his arsenal this year has been Civale himself. Since arriving in Milwaukee, he has a 5.46 FIP and 1.41 WHIP over two starts. Over 17 starts with the Rays. He had a 5.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, so it’s safe to say that it might not be his year.

Don’t Let Them Steal
Like a refrigerator, the Brewers are most effective when they’re running. They’re second in MLB in stolen bases with a whopping 133, 87 more than the Twins’ figure of 46. The main suspects will be known as speedsters Brice Turang and Christian Yelich, who have stolen a combined 51 bags. While lacking the same on-base skills, Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick have top-decile sprint speed and have been known to snag bases when given the chance to do so, combining for 28 between them. 

Unfortunately, neither Ryan Jeffers nor Christian Vázquez are particularly adept at preventing the run game. Luckily, there are other ways to prevent the opposing team from making a break from it. More diligent pickoff attempts and intentional infielder positioning are just a few ways to stop Milwaukee in its tracks. If you want to be less ethical about it, you can always send Justin Topa to pull a Nancy Kerrigan job since he isn’t doing much these days.

Pitch To Them - It Won’t Hurt
Like an empty soda fountain, the Brewers ain’t got no pop, at least not since June 1st. They’re slugging just .371, 26th in MLB, and their .123 ISO is the worst in MLB since then. Their 33 home runs are 29th in MLB, just one more than the last-place Marlins. What has been limiting their power? They’re hitting ground balls at a 47.1% clip, the highest in MLB over this span. This poor quality of contact has drastically limited their ability to put runs on the board.

López and Ryan both have strikeout rates >27.0%. Even if they’re not fanning hitters, they could still collect some outs through soft contact. Even if the Crew logs hits, they may be limited to singles with few extra-base hits. Without a real power/RBI threat other than maybe Willy Adames, the Twins shouldn’t be too worried about unloading their heat onto the Milwaukee men.

It’ll be a great pair of games, and with this year’s head-to-head results currently at 1-1, hopefully, we’ll get a definitive ending to this DiamondCentric derby.