What is the Twins strategy this season?

[jokin]

Not only would this board have erupted in outrage, nearly every scout and baseball analyst on the planet would have made the Twins the laughing stock of baseball over it.

 

Sano and Gibson for Shields is a dumb, dumb, dumb trade no matter how you look at it. If someone else is willing to offer the moon for a good - not great - player, you do not retaliate with an offer for the moon and Mars. You let them make that mistake and run like hell in the other direction.

 

Again, you limited the trade to 2 for 1, that didn't happen, and wouldn't have happened, as that would have been dumb, and not what this side of the argument suggested.

[jokin]

It's funny that you think that...

 

Because I'm pretty sure there are 29 MLB GMs that agree with you.

 

Doubt it's all 29, probably only the ones that already have their starting pitching in order.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Except that Shields is far from typical. He's actually improving with age. At this point there is no evidence to suggest that he's due for an imminent physical dropoff.

 

I'm not sure that the trade would have taken Sano and Gibson. The Rays had a huge hole in CF, as well. Probably so, but you neglect to acknowledge that the Royals also got a young (27 years old), and very serviceable, and signed very inexpensively through 2017 @ multiple team options, Wade Davis- certainly not a front-end starter, but he alone would likely have been one of the top pitchers on the Twins starting rotation. His overall numbers this year don't look that good, but over his last 6 starts he has a 3.68 FIP and his K/9 is 9.26.

 

You don't throw out 100 years of baseball history and performance predictive tools because one guy slightly improved from 29-31. That kind of thinking can come crashing down on your head in a hurry.

 

Then replace Gibson with Span. Still an awful, awful deal and pretty much everybody in baseball would agree with me on it.

 

You don't give up top-of-the-charts prospects for guys on the wrong side of 30. You just don't do it. You double-secret don't do it when your MLB team sucks and just came off back-to-back 90+ loss seasons. That's the type of move that should not only get a GM fired but also packed in a crate and shipped to Antarctica as punishment for his history stupidity.

[jokin]

Quality free agents are a separate argument entirely. Free agents don't require you to loot the farm, a farm that you are relying on to compete in the future.

 

You're arguing over a trade. A trade that would seriously cripple the long-term success of this franchise for a few wins today.

 

The whole deal would have depended on extending Shields as part of the tacit agreement. That the Royals made the deal without that assurance is REALLY dumb.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Again, you limited the trade to 2 for 1, that didn't happen, and wouldn't have happened, as that would have been dumb, and not what this side of the argument suggested.

 

It doesn't matter. It's a bad deal.

 

You do realize that you're arguing against what most perceive to be the smartest front office in baseball, right? You're essentially arguing that the Rays received the short end of the stick on this one and that the Royals, one of the worst franchises of the past 30 years, did the right thing?

 

The team who knows James Shields better than anyone else didn't hesitate to let him go for the #4 prospect in baseball. That's all you need to know about this deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The whole deal would have depended on extending Shields as part of the tacit agreement. That the Royals made the deal without that assurance is REALLY dumb.

 

Why would Shields agree to an extension? What is his incentive to do such a thing? He's being shipped to an awful franchise and is two years from unrestricted free agency where he'll make piles of money and get to choose his destination.

 

There's a very good chance that Shields didn't want an extension, particularly from the Royals.

[jokin]

You don't throw out 100 years of baseball history and performance predictive tools because one guy slightly improved from 29-31. That kind of thinking can come crashing down on your head in a hurry.

 

Then replace Gibson with Span. Still an awful, awful deal and pretty much everybody in baseball would agree with me on it.

 

You don't give up top-of-the-charts prospects for guys on the wrong side of 30. You just don't do it. You double-secret don't do it when your MLB team sucks and just came off back-to-back 90+ loss seasons. That's the type of move that should not only get a GM fired but also packed in a crate and shipped to Antarctica as punishment for his history stupidity.

 

Slightly improved? I'm not sure what stat chart you're referring to, he has always been an innings-eater, but the last 3 years he has been a dominant innings-eating guy you build a team around. Shields ranks in the top 7 pitchers by WAR in all of baseball since 2011 and has the most innings pitched.

 

The logical question to counter-propose to you is this: How do the Twins take the necessary step(s) to making their pitching staff a legit postseason contender? They absolutely refuse to sign an above-average, let alone, quality free agent pitcher, let alone an Ace level one. They have proven over time that they can't pick one in the draft or develop one in their farm program. Do they just hope that another Johan "magic set of beans" shows up in some obscure trade? I like the Meyer trade, but they are out of tradeable assets by your given strictures, unless Perkins can get you another A-ball prospect, and should all of the Twins eggs be laid in the Meyer basket- if that turns out rotten, then all of last offseason ends up for naught, anyways.

[StormJH1]

It's kind of funny to me that there's been multiple occasions where a veteran was traded at the deadline for guys that it's assumed will basically never be major leaguers, and yet Drew Butera (Castillo trade, 2007), Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez (Liriano trade, 2012) have all gotten decent run on what happens to be one of the worst teams in baseball over the last three years.

 

I only bring this up because even though the assumption is that we would get virtually nothing for Doumit or Willingham, recent history suggests there could be a role player coming back for them. Which might be better than nothing.

 

Plus, it saves the front office some salary money, and (more importantly) frees up crowded corner outfield spots for young prospects to actually use.

 

The Doumit re-signing was pretty universally popular, but I didn't quite understand it. It's almost like they resigned him because of what it did to help Mauer, but looking at how Chris Hermann played, you have to think they could've landed on a better-than-Butera option to spell Mauer without adding another veteran to the mix.

[jokin]

Why would Shields agree to an extension? What is his incentive to do such a thing? He's being shipped to an awful franchise and is two years from unrestricted free agency where he'll make piles of money and get to choose his destination.

 

There's a very good chance that Shields didn't want an extension, particularly from the Royals.

 

As I said, the Royals are REALLY dumb, and I would never have considered any type of trade for Shields if he were to walk after 2014. Did I mention that that would be

REALLY.

DUMB?

[jokin]

Why would Shields agree to an extension? What is his incentive to do such a thing? He's being shipped to an awful franchise and is two years from unrestricted free agency where he'll make piles of money and get to choose his destination.

 

There's a very good chance that Shields didn't want an extension, particularly from the Royals.

 

If you continue to contend that Shields is on borrowed time and about to have a Dave Dravecky-like-experience at any moment (sorry, I know a took some strawman license to illustrate the point;)), how is it that you now suggest that 29 GMs are going to line up to give him "piles of money" in 2014?

[johnnydakota]

All 30 G.M.s , every agent , and every pitcher knew the twins needed starting pitching last off season. Terry said he was talking to or trying to sign a pretty darn good pitcher...Who was that? He got lucky with signing Correia, there is not 1 person who could look at Kevins stats and truely believe he could transition to the American leaque and put up better numbers ,then he ever did in the National leaque....then there was 11 month T.J. freak who may end up the best od the additions, and of course a twice hurt worely......

 

my point was simple Sanchez and Shields would have made us the team to pick to dethrone the Tigers...On a side note, wouldnt it be nice to finally have a free agent that could be thought of as an asset rather then as a waste of money?

[SwainZag]

Slightly improved? I'm not sure what stat chart you're referring to, he has always been an innings-eater, but the last 3 years he has been a dominant innings-eating guy you build a team around. Shields ranks in the top 7 pitchers by WAR in all of baseball since 2011 and has the most innings pitched.

 

The logical question to counter-propose to you is this: How do the Twins take the necessary step(s) to making their pitching staff a legit postseason contender? They absolutely refuse to sign an above-average, let alone, quality free agent pitcher, let alone an Ace level one. They have proven over time that they can't pick one in the draft or develop one in their farm program. Do they just hope that another Johan "magic set of beans" shows up in some obscure trade? I like the Meyer trade, but they are out of tradeable assets by your given strictures, unless Perkins can get you another A-ball prospect, and should all of the Twins eggs be laid in the Meyer basket- if that turns out rotten, then all of last offseason ends up for naught, anyways.

 

While I agree with you that quality starting pitching wins games and gets teams to the playoffs what good what it have done trading the Twins best prospect, someone who projects as a future cornerstone, for a 31 year old SP entering the last year of his deal? Would Shields have helped the Twins propel to the playoffs this year? Not only is Brock right about this whole board being outraged it's one of those moves that makes no sense.

 

I couldn't believe KC even took a serious look at that deal besides actually making the trade. The Twins are set up beautifully for the future and I don't know why more people can't see that it might take another 85-90 loss to season to be worth what will be here in 2-3 years. By the time the loaded farm club is up at the big leagues there should be plenty of money out there to pick up a FA pitcher or make a trade for one. Wasting your valuable pieces and overpaying for players IS NOT how you win in the long run.

[jokin]

It doesn't matter. It's a bad deal.

 

You do realize that you're arguing against what most perceive to be the smartest front office in baseball, right? You're essentially arguing that the Rays received the short end of the stick on this one and that the Royals, one of the worst franchises of the past 30 years, did the right thing?

 

The team who knows James Shields better than anyone else didn't hesitate to let him go for the #4 prospect in baseball. That's all you need to know about this deal.

 

You know me well enough that I worship the Rays front office and have begged over and over for the Twins to hire away some of their bright young minds.

 

I most certainly have not argued that the Rays received the short end of the stick. It's the deal that they always look to make. It's in their basic MO. The Rays didn't hesitate because they always look to anticipate trading their big-time stars years before they have to. Unlike the Twins, who caught in their own potential FA inertia, let their stars walk away for nothing, or practically nothing- the Rays actually have a solid plan in place.

 

Look at Price, they're already shopping him around.

 

The Rays made a good deal for the Rays, It's what they do. It doesn't mean that it can't be a good deal for the trading team in exploiting the Rays' inherent and only weakness, financial. For the deal to work, it would have had to been incumbent on locking up Shields long-term, if in this case, the Twins sniffed around, and found out that it wasn't possible, of course, they did the right thing by walking, no running, away from the deal as fast as possible. As I said, the Royals are DUMB, really.

[Riverbrian]

Can I humbly suggest that #2 is just your opinion. While I accept that may very well have happened, acquiring a front-line starter has to take precedence over anything else- IMO, it clearly would have been painful, but the right thing to do. Starting pitching at the highest quality level is the ultimate game changer in winning in the playoffs. Acquiring the position player pieces to fit around the quality pitching is far easier to accomplish through the draft or FA- and no matter how good the position players might be, there just isn't as much differential impact between a top- and above average- position player- as there is between an Ace pitcher and the dregs that the Twins have been employing in the past since the departure of Santana and currently are sporting in the rotation.

 

No argument from me at all...

 

#2 is my opinion. I typically try not to speak for the organization or anyone else.

 

I'll even go as far to say that If... Sano was traded for Shields... My Mr. Positive Disposition would have darkened in a hurry. I would have been more upset over that than I was upset over trading Ramos for Capps.

 

But again... That is just my opinion and while some may disagree with that opinion(which is normal)... I do believe that there are enough TD posters who agree with me... and a large enough group to cause a fairly decent size explosion on these pages.

[jokin]

While I agree with you that quality starting pitching wins games and gets teams to the playoffs what good what it have done trading the Twins best prospect, someone who projects as a future cornerstone, for a 31 year old SP entering the last year of his deal? Would Shields have helped the Twins propel to the playoffs this year? Not only is Brock right about this whole board being outraged it's one of those moves that makes no sense.

 

I couldn't believe KC even took a serious look at that deal besides actually making the trade. The Twins are set up beautifully for the future and I don't know why more people can't see that it might take another 85-90 loss to season to be worth what will be here in 2-3 years. By the time the loaded farm club is up at the big leagues there should be plenty of money out there to pick up a FA pitcher or make a trade for one. Wasting your valuable pieces and overpaying for players IS NOT how you win in the long run.

 

I've never once said that the Twins acquire Shields to win in 2013. It takes years of patient building as players and situations change enough for the right set of pieces to be available and put in place. 2015 is about the optimum time for the Twins to put it all together, but the table-setting to get there should be happening now, not then.

 

I would take issue that the Twins are set up beautifully for the future. There are great prospects that we all eagerly await. But there are still huge holes in the field that don't have obvious go-to prospects, and the Starting Pitching is currently a miasma of mediocrity with many question marks in the minors. (Why aren't they finding out about Gibson in this throwaway year and instead, wasting innings on guys who won't be here, either next year or the year after?).

[jokin]

No argument from me at all...

 

#2 is my opinion. I typically try not to speak for the organization or anyone else.

 

I'll even go as far to say that If... Sano was traded for Shields... My Mr. Positive Disposition would have darkened in a hurry. I would have been more upset over that than I was upset over trading Ramos for Capps.

 

But again... That is just my opinion and while some may disagree with that opinion(which is normal)... I do believe that there are enough TD posters who agree with me... and a large enough group to cause a fairly decent size explosion on these pages.

 

Again, it's gong to be very painful for the Twins to do what has to be done to make this team a worthy playoff contender. As of now, your side is wishing for the magic beans to appear, so we can steal another Johan Santana from someone. I just don't see that as a logical outcome.

[johnnydakota]

52%x 213,000,000=? there is plenty of money now

[SwainZag]

I've never once said that the Twins acquire Shields to win in 2013. It takes years of patient building as players and situations change enough for the right set of pieces to be available and put in place. 2015 is about the optimum time for the Twins to put it all together, but the table-setting to get there should be happening now, not then.

 

I would take issue that the Twins are set up beautifully for the future. There are great prospects that we all eagerly await. But there are still huge holes in the field that don't have obvious go-to prospects, and the Starting Pitching is currently a miasma of mediocrity with many question marks in the minors. (Why aren't they finding out about Gibson in this throwaway year and instead, wasting innings on guys who won't be here, either next year or the year after?).

 

Trading valuable pieces, let's go with Brock's version of Sano + Gibson, for Shields now, then giving him a giant contract to stay through his 32-37 years (generally a pitchers gradual downfall years) just makes no sense to me. If Shields was 25 or 26 this would be a different story for me, at his age, contract status once Myers was on the table there was no chance he was coming here. You don't think trading of Span and Revere weren't moves to set up the future? For all we know Carroll, Willingham, Doumit, Correia, Morneau and Burton might all be dealt for future players at the deadline.

 

Name one franchise out there who is stacked at every position in the minors? It just doesn't happen. I understand how prospects are just prospects and not a sure thing, but saying the Twins don't have any SP is just crazy. Gibson and Meyer are two very good pieces that I am guessing the Twins are counting on heavily for the future.

[jokin]

Trading valuable pieces, let's go with Brock's version of Sano + Gibson, for Shields now, then giving him a giant contract to stay through his 32-37 years (generally a pitchers gradual downfall years) just makes no sense to me. If Shields was 25 or 26 this would be a different story for me, at his age, contract status once Myers was on the table there was no chance he was coming here. You don't think trading of Span and Revere weren't moves to set up the future? For all we know Carroll, Willingham, Doumit, Correia, Morneau and Burton might all be dealt for future players at the deadline.

 

Name one franchise out there who is stacked at every position in the minors? It just doesn't happen. I understand how prospects are just prospects and not a sure thing, but saying the Twins don't have any SP is just crazy. Gibson and Meyer are two very good pieces that I am guessing the Twins are counting on heavily for the future.

 

Again, this wasn't the deal that your side is arguing, the Royals also got Wade Davis and a pretty reliable SS, Elliott Johnson. And under my proposal, Shields would have been signed through age 36, not 37.

 

The players you propose trading will return virtually nothing. Gibson and Meyer are two very good prospects, the Twins don't even see fit to sending Gibson out on his career at age 26- so yeah, they're "counting on them", but neither is a sure thing at this point. You have to gamble from all possible sources in acquiring pitching talent, particularly when you can't develop it yourself and are unwilling to pay to get above-average SPs, let alone Ace-level through free agency.

 

Right now, the holes in this club, even with the offseason acquisitions, are still gaping, at important positions, especially starting pitching.

[SwainZag]

Again, this wasn't the deal that your side is arguing, the Royals also got Wade Davis and a pretty reliable SS, Elliott Johnson. And under my proposal, Shields would have been signed through age 36, not 37.

 

The players you propose trading will return virtually nothing. Gibson and Meyer are two very good prospects, the Twins don't even see fit to sending Gibson out on his career at age 26- so yeah, they're "counting on them", but neither is a sure thing at this point. You have to gamble from all possible sources in acquiring pitching talent, particularly when you can't develop it yourself and are unwilling to pay to get above-average SPs, let alone Ace-level through free agency.

 

Right now, the holes in this club, even with the offseason acquisitions, are still gaping, at important positions, especially starting pitching.

 

I didn't propose trading Gibson and Meyer, I said the Twins are leaning on them as future members of the Starting Pitching staff.

 

Gibson is 25 and has just over 100 innings under his belt after having Tommy John surgery. To say because they aren't using him now has no precedence on what they think of him in the future.

 

I disagree with you that you need to gamble from all possible sources to acquire pitching talent. I believe there is a time and place for that, and going into this season the Twins were not in position to add a big money SP on the wrong side of 30, especially for top young prospects, at least in my opinion.

[Riverbrian]

Again, it's gong to be very painful for the Twins to do what has to be done to make this team a worthy playoff contender. As of now, your side is wishing for the magic beans to appear, so we can steal another Johan Santana from someone. I just don't see that as a logical outcome.

 

In my opinion...

 

A. The Twins probably think they have Santana in Sano.

 

B. You start making those painful moves of giving up magic beans for beanstalks. You will run out of magic beans and the organization has a farm set up specifically for those magic beans.

 

C. Full Grown beanstalks are expensive and only the Dodgers and Yankees can afford a team full of beanstalks.

 

D. In my opinion... The Twins will never get healthy without the magic beans so give me more magic beans in case 30 of them don't grow.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hopefully long enough to pass the torch to a qualified replacement ....

 

Not happening when you trade them all away... Then there's this problem about major league contracts being guaranteed. He plays for the team as long as he has a contract, whether he's still good or not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you continue to contend that Shields is on borrowed time and about to have a Dave Dravecky-like-experience at any moment (sorry, I know a took some strawman license to illustrate the point;)), how is it that you now suggest that 29 GMs are going to line up to give him "piles of money" in 2014?

 

I didn't say he was on borrowed time. I said he's not worth the #4 prospect in baseball because he's well into a typical decline phase of a career. He's also not worth any combination of Span, Sano, and Gibson.

 

Nowhere did I even remotely imply that he's on borrowed time. I'm projecting the typical decline phase of a guy entering his mid-30s, not wishing upon a star that he's one of the few that can somehow dodge the shackles of time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Rays made a good deal for the Rays, It's what they do. It doesn't mean that it can't be a good deal for the trading team in exploiting the Rays' inherent and only weakness, financial. For the deal to work, it would have had to been incumbent on locking up Shields long-term, if in this case, the Twins sniffed around, and found out that it wasn't possible, of course, they did the right thing by walking, no running, away from the deal as fast as possible. As I said, the Royals are DUMB, really.

 

Even if the Royals locked up Shields, it was a bad deal and the Rays hosed Kansas City.

 

To extend Shields, you're looking at something close to Anibal Sanchez money for a guy approaching his mid-30s. Except that, instead of pursuing Anibal (who is five years younger, mind you), you're also giving up the #4 prospect in all of baseball to do it.

 

Under any scenario you play out, how does that make sense? Shields is not Sandy Koufax. There's simply no reason to ship out the #4 prospect in baseball for the type of guy that is available on the free agent market nearly every season and certainly no less than every other offseason.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

To extend Shields, you're looking at something close to Anibal Sanchez money for a guy approaching his mid-30s. Except that, instead of pursuing Anibal (who is five years younger, mind you), you're also giving up the #4 prospect in all of baseball to do it.

 

This

[Kwak]

Comparisions to KC and Minnesota? Why not to Detroit? They traded their "top prospects" to get talent (Cameron Maybin and others). That acquired talent has been helping them win.

 

"Overspend" (Gosh, I love that word!) on free agents! Oh yes they did! Take the high-priced college pitcher (as opposed to a "toolsy" position player?--Yeah, they did that too.

 

On to KC. They have had the "honor" of a loaded minor league system for several years. Prospects, prospects and more prospects--but all they had to show for it was a perpetually losing team and the opportunity to get even more prospects. Beware of the "prospects"! Notice how the wonderful Cedar Rapids prospects fell apart? In TT they have a "Blame Mauer bot"--should that be used here? Anybody can have a slump, but Sano's slow start in NB should dampen the fervor just a bit. I recall many a TD post before April extolling Hicks. That parade has been "rained-on". In fact, none of the "new Twins" have sent the "watch-out-for-me" message to MLB yet. In summary, prospects are fine to talk about, but it's "players" that are needed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Comparisions to KC and Minnesota? Why not to Detroit? They traded their "top prospects" to get talent (Cameron Maybin and others). That acquired talent has been helping them win.

 

Detroit only started trading their "prospects" after they started winning (it coincidentally happened when they also started to run out of can't-miss prospects because Verlander & Co were already in the majors). They also went and handed out a bajillion dollars to a bunch of free agents.

 

Or maybe you forgot about Detroit's historic 2001-2004 run when they lost just 411 games in four seasons. There's a reason they have Justin Verlander in the first place (hint, it's not Dave Dombrowski's winning smile).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Notice how the wonderful Cedar Rapids prospects fell apart? In TT they have a "Blame Mauer bot"--should that be used here? Anybody can have a slump, but Sano's slow start in NB should dampen the fervor just a bit.

 

Yeah, those 19 PAs in New Britain have really diminished Sano in the eyes of most scouts.

 

I mean, that's like five games. In a row.

[johnnydakota]

Not happening when you trade them all away... Then there's this problem about major league contracts being guaranteed. He plays for the team as long as he has a contract, whether he's still good or not.

So your saying the only SP in our system is Gibson?

Or your saying that we need to Sign him till hes 40?

[Guest USAFChief]

 

I couldn't believe KC even took a serious look at that deal besides actually making the trade. The Twins are set up beautifully for the future and I don't know why more people can't see that it might take another 85-90 loss to season to be worth what will be here in 2-3 years. By the time the loaded farm club is up at the big leagues there should be plenty of money out there to pick up a FA pitcher or make a trade for one. Wasting your valuable pieces and overpaying for players IS NOT how you win in the long run.

 

I wouldn't have wanted the Twins to spend what KC spent to get Shields...but it's pretty understandable why KC made that move. They've been "set up beautifully for the future" for a decade or two now, and what do they have to show for all that shiny minor league talent? They want to win, at the major league level, now. Not in five years, not in two years. Now. I can respect that and wish the Twins would operate more on the theory that a winning season now is worth more than a winning season 5 years from now.

 

It also seems pretty convenient that many of the same posters who argue vehemently that the Twins should "wait till they've got all that young talent in place before they go out and get the final pieces" are some of the same posters who castigate Dayton Moore for attempting to do exactly that.

 

Waiting for magic to happen and all that you need to be a world series contender falls into place, at the same time, in the big leagues IS NOT how you win, either.