How Young Twins Starters Can Better Leverage the Platoon Advantage

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins are heavily reliant on a trio of young pitchers to take the next step and prove they can be playoff-caliber starters in 2024. Each has different focuses for the year, but finding a greater platoon advantage might be the first step.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Teams always strive to find small advantages to gain an edge over a 162-game season. Some teams utilize openers, while others are strategic about platooning players in the starting lineup. On paper, these seem like small moves, but the value can add up and help contending teams separate themselves in the division standings. 

The Twins have three young arms looking to fully establish themselves as consistent big-league starters this season. Joe Ryan pitched over 160 innings last season, but saw his performance decline while hiding a groin injury from the team. The Twins felt the need to control Bailey Ober’s workload last season, before he emerged as one of the team’s best starters for the stretch run. Louie Varland showed he can be a dominant reliever, but he will begin the year as the team’s fifth starter. All three pitchers posted reverse splits last season, a commonality the team must address for long-term success.

Joe Ryan, RHP
Vs. RHB (357 PA): .269/.300/.530, 19 2B, 23 HR, 117 K, 14 BB
Vs. LHB (315 PA): .222/.279/.361, 11 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 80 K, 20 BB
Ryan has a unique arm angle and throwing motion from his previous experience as a water polo player. Last season, his fastball run value ranked in the 91st percentile, 13 runs better than average. Unfortunately, his breaking and offspeed run values were in the 13th percentile or lower, giving back much of that value. His most significant pitch mix change in 2023 was using a split-finger, which resulted in a .415 SLG from opposing batters. Ryan’s fastball will always be the key to his success. Still, his secondary offerings are the difference between being a mid-rotation starter and a top-of-the-rotation guy. 

Right-handed hitters posted a .511 SLG or higher versus all his pitches in 2023. His sweeper (35.4%) and four-seamer (32.4%) had the highest Whiff% against righties. However, Ryan’s sweeper only resulted in a 19.0 Put Away %, while his fastball had a 25.5%. In his first start against the Royals, Ryan saw a few changes that might help him during the 2024 season. He showed increased velocity with all his pitches and used his slider more regularly against right-handed hitters. It’s only one start, so those will be items to track in the season’s early weeks. 

Bailey Ober, RHP
Vs. RHB (284 PA): .236/.278/.457, 11 2B, 16 HR, 83 K, 12 BB
Vs. LHB (293 PA): .228/.280/.349, 13 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 63 K, 17 BB
Ober has been one of Minnesota’s most consistent starters since he debuted in 2021, which makes it a little easier to brush off the worst start of his career over the weekend. In 2023, Ober’s most significant change with pitch usage was an increase in his changeup (15.6% to 28%), while relying much less on his slider. Since debuting, his slider has been his worst pitch, with a -7 run value. Ober is introducing a cutter this season, so fans can follow that pitch's success (or failure) as he builds a bigger sample size.

Ober’s size and length have allowed him to be successful at the big-league level because he releases the ball closer to the plate, which adds perceived velocity to his pitches. That perception didn’t help his fastball enough last season, though, with right-handed hitters tagging it for a .521 SLG. Righties posted a .459 SLG versus his slider, with his changeup being his best offering at a .343 SLG and 33.9 Whiff%. Ober got very few swings and misses against Kansas City this weekend, but the hope is that that is an outlier performance.   

Louie Varland, RHP
Vs. RHB (184 PA): .275/.317/.526, 6 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 43 K, 10 BB
Vs. LHB (99 PA): .209/.265/.429, 1 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 28 K, 7 BB
Varland split time as a starter and reliever last season, so his numbers get skewed depending on his role. In 10 starts, he posted a 5.30 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. Batters hit .270/.321/.527 against him with a 22.4 K% and a 6.6 BB%. He posted similar totals at Triple-A, despite it being a hitter-friendly environment. There was plenty of discussion this winter about what role Varland should fill for the 2024 season, but the team needs him in the rotation after Anthony DeSclafani was injured. 

For Varland, his most significant pitch usage alteration was an increased use of his cutter and less reliance on his slider. Right-handed batters posted a .328 BA and a .641 SLG against his four-seamer, including ten extra-base hits in 70 PA. His cutter was arguably his best pitch versus righties with a .390 SLG and a 26.5 Whiff%. Out of all his breaking pitches, his cutter was the lone pitch with a slugging percentage lower than .577. Varland has also recently developed a two-seam fastball, which he has not used in a regular-season game. That pitch might be the key to him gaining the platoon advantage and sticking as a starting pitcher. 

The Twins need the three pitchers mentioned above to take the next step in 2024. Pitching development is critical to keeping the team’s winning window open as long as possible. Finding more success against right-handed hitters will decide each pitcher’s future role with the club, and consistently leveraging the platoon advantage better is a long-time area of concern for the team as a whole.

---

How can these three pitchers improve against right-handed pitchers? Which offspeed pitch needs to improve the most? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[h2oface]

Ober is 28, 29 in July. He is hardly "young" for a baseball player. In fact, he is closer to "old" than "young".

Ryan is so young he will be 28 in June.

[Doctor Wu]

If we went out and re-signed Rich Hill and/or Dallas Keuchel those guys would qualify as young indeed!

[MABB1959]

There was no mention of SWR, kind of disappointing.

[mikelink45]

To add to the ages in the previous post - Varland is 26.  I am hoping we can get Festa - 24 into the rotation this year too.   I know that Soto - 18 and Raya 21 won't be up this year, but I hope they develop quickly.  Prielipp is already 23 and we have read about him a lot, but his health is a concern and so is Canterino - I will be surprised to see either have a good MLB career.   And Zebby Mathews seems to have good success, but I seldom see him in the SP projections. 

Posts are correct, we do not have a young rotation, we have a rotation of limited experience.