Joe Ryan Has Reached an Early Career Crossroads

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How about this in 2022 on June 14th his ERA was 2.81 and made its way up to 4.05 (9/7) before ending at 3.55.

On June 10th 2023 his ERA was 2.98, and made its way up to 4.21(9/6) before ending up at 4.51.

So the big difference between 22 and 23 was mostly how he ended the season in Sept and the injury could have played a role?

It is a known fact that he was hiding a groin injury from the team last year and the stretch that he was hiding the injury was by far his worst pitching.

He gave up 8 home runs in 93.2 innings before he hid the injury, 17 HR in 32.1 innings while hiding an injury, and 7 in 35.2 innings after recovering (3 of which came at Coors Field). 

Last season is a pretty simple puzzle to piece together. 

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

It is a known fact that he was hiding a groin injury from the team last year and the stretch that he was hiding the injury was by far his worst pitching.

He gave up 8 home runs in 93.2 innings before he hid the injury, 17 HR in 32.1 innings while hiding an injury, and 7 in 35.2 innings after recovering (3 of which came at Coors Field). 

Last season is a pretty simple puzzle to piece together. 

After his May 13th start where he went 6 innings 0 ER, 1 BB, 10K his ERA stood at 2.16

The rest of the reason from that point on was 5.56.

He had a stretch between May 30th and June 16th that wasn't great. he had a stretch between June 27th and August 2nd. And a his last 3 starts that weren't good. Some could say the last 5 since those two were less than 5 innings but only 2 ER.

So if you want to say the sole reason he wasn't the cy young award winner (because he would have been if his last 19 starts were like his first 10) was injury, go for it and all I am saying is it isn't the sole reason.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

After his May 13th start where he went 6 innings 0 ER, 1 BB, 10K his ERA stood at 2.16

The rest of the reason from that point on was 5.56.

He had a stretch between May 30th and June 16th that wasn't great. he had a stretch between June 27th and August 2nd. And a his last 3 starts that weren't good. Some could say the last 5 since those two were less than 5 innings but only 2 ER.

So if you want to say the sole reason he wasn't the cy young award winner (because he would have been if his last 19 starts were like his first 10) was injury, go for it and all I am saying is it isn't the sole reason.

I'm really not sure why you think cherry picking and small sample sizes is forming a cohesive argument.

Joe Ryan had a 2.98 ERA before he hid an injury. He had an 8.63 ERA while hiding an injury, then a 3.82 ERA after coming off the IL before a wonky Coors Field game.

I'll reiterate, the only point I'm making is that Joe Ryan had 3 very clear segments in his 2023 season. It is very obvious to see how hiding a groin injury affected the stretch that was clearly an outlier compared to the rest of his season. I'm not sure how you're coming up with whatever you're claiming that I said when I clearly said nothing of the sort.

Maybe he got figured out to an extent, maybe the injury messed with his mechanics for the remainder of the season, maybe a little of both and something else.

[Doctor Gast]

I think Ryan hit a wall that caused his injury & made his pitches not as effective. Many made good points about how he needs to make his secondary pitches better. I believe he'll make the needed adjustments & him being one year stronger will make him an improved SP.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Sorry, I didn't know when you typed "Pablo sure changed a bunch" you weren't talking about the results for the season.

His last 4 starts of September with Miaim he pitched 25.66 innings with an ERA of 2.1

His last 4 starts of September with Min he pitched 23.33 innings with an ERA of 4.24

I like Pablo and I liked the trade for Pablo, but this idea that somehow what he did last year was something amazingly different than what he did in 22 is just not correct. Do I think Pablo will even be better this year, I do, I love that he seemed to figure out this starting pitching thing at age 26, improved again at age 27 and should be moving into his prime years 28-31 with some momentum.

So, the whole premise I addressed was “a pitcher can’t change at or after 27/28.” The subject was brought up here because, supposedly, Ryan can’t get any better.

Lopez got better and tons of pitchers get better after age 27/28. Stewart-Tupa-Thielbar-Jackson (1/2 the current bullpen)……on & on

I’m not talking about stats in the month of September year to year. His reputation and place in MLB changed nationally over the course of a year. End of one regular season compared to end of the following regular season……..& then………He was probably the best pitcher (in limited innings/appearances) in the 2023 post season.

He’s routinely being discussed with 3-4 other guys as a serious candidate for AL Cy Young in ‘24.

You say his September of ‘22 & ‘23 are comparable - his record was comparable - he didn’t really change……why is he a leading Cy Young candidate if he hasn’t changed? Good marketing?

[Cris E]

Hey @CCHOF5yearstoolate  Not trying to be argumentative, but why did a .7 increase in Vert Movement for the splitter get a green but a 1.2 increase for the fastball get a red? 

[TwinsDr2021]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, the whole premise I addressed was “a pitcher can’t change at or after 27/28.” The subject was brought up here because, supposedly, Ryan can’t get any better.

Lopez got better and tons of pitchers get better after age 27/28. Stewart-Tupa-Thielbar-Jackson (1/2 the current bullpen)……on & on

I’m not talking about stats in the month of September year to year. His reputation and place in MLB changed nationally over the course of a year. End of one regular season compared to end of the following regular season……..& then………He was probably the best pitcher (in limited innings/appearances) in the 2023 post season.

He’s routinely being discussed with 3-4 other guys as a serious candidate for AL Cy Young in ‘24.

You say his September of ‘22 & ‘23 are comparable - his record was comparable - he didn’t really change……why is he a leading Cy Young candidate if he hasn’t changed? Good marketing?

You can't compare starting pitchers getting better and relief pitchers. Completely different things. I will argue that starting pitchers after or around 27/28 don't really change unless they come up with a new pitch or the reason they weren't all that great prior was health related. Older pitchers just don't all of a sudden start dominating teams deep into games  for an extended period of time. It doesn't happen and if it does it is the exception to the rule.

The reason he is being considered is, he has now done it multiple years in a row while improving, he is now the ace of the staff of the second place finisher, and lets be completely honest the starting pitching in the American league with Gray and Ohtani gone doesn't leave many names exiting names but he is worthy of being mentioned with those names. (Cole, Gausman, Valdez, Burnes and Lopez).

IMO Cole is far an away the favorite and I believe Vegas agrees, but I will be cheering for Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran  for a 1,2, 3, 4 finish! (in any order)

 

[Schmoeman5]

Pablo López went through something similar in Miami. Simply put this way. If they can't get the offspeed stuff over for strikes the hitters will just sit fastball. Not too different than what the Twins did vs Gausman. I believe Joe Ryan can take that next step. With all the metrics and data,  these guys all know what needs to be fixed. It's just a matter of can they execute it. Here's a question. If Pablo stayed in Miami or even went to another organization, would he have done as well? I believe he would have. If the magic elixir is Twins coaching why would places like Driveline exist 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

4 hours ago, Cris E said:

Hey @CCHOF5yearstoolate  Not trying to be argumentative, but why did a .7 increase in Vert Movement for the splitter get a green but a 1.2 increase for the fastball get a red? 

An increase in vertical movement means it dropped more. You want a 4-seam fastball to drop less, or "rise" more.

That's probably a bad category name from me, sorry about that. 

[joefish]

The data is dizzying. Whelming. 

I'm ready to see some green grass. 

3 feet of snow here. And it's raining. 

Play ball.