Make a Valiant Effort to Avoid Shortsightedness

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You need to available and performing to accumulate that WAR. Lewis and Kirilloff haven't been healthy for each of the last 3 seasons. Is that just "bad luck?" Idk. Wallner was literally unplayable in the postseason. We can bemoan the SSS but his offensive issues were on full display. All is takes is one sophomore slump (looking at you Jose Miranda,) or one lengthy IL stint before you're trying to squeeze 4-5 WAR out of the remaining players to hit that mark, so yeah, I think it's an incredibly optimistic number. 

While you are no doubt correct that injury could derail these players seasons. That same risk of injury exists for older/more established players.  It's a good thing our big dollar players like Correa and Buxton crushed it for a grand total of less than 2 WAR for $48M and our other two most expensive signings (Vasquez & Gallo) sucked too.  By your logic there is no hope no matter what they do.  

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

While you are no doubt correct that injury could derail these players seasons. That same risk of injury exists for older/more established players.  It's a good thing our big dollar players like Correa and Buxton crushed it for a grand total of less than 2 WAR for $48M and our other two most expensive signings (Vasquez & Gallo) sucked too.  By your logic there is no hope no matter what they do.  

That's a massive overgeneralization. 59, 45, and 88. Those are Kirilloff's total games played in each of the last three seasons. Every player on the roster is just as likely to post a stretch like that? Stop. 

My logic? You keep bringing Correa and Buxton into a discussion that has nothing to do with them, and now you've stretched my skepticism that a group of young players will double their WAR output into "there's no hope for this team." C'mon, it's not that hard to argue in good faith is it? 

[Linus]

Yea I don’t think Julien Wallner and Lewis are just going to keep putting up last years numbers. A more realistic expectation is one of them will keep on like last year, one will regress and one will really struggle. 

[Cris E]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Lewis’s ACLs were both bad luck! AK had his arm bone fixed and its a non issue. His shoulder is slso fixed so there is no reason to pencil them into further injury talk. 
Taylor was a nice fill in for buck. Buck is back and while healthy which he is, should be an upgrade to MAT. A healthy Buxton could be allstar material. If he fails completely, we have depth. Not allstar depth but we can match MAT ‘23. 
lets say 2 guys slump ala Gordon/Miranda /Gallo’23. So what. 2 more guys will step up.

The organization is deep at every position but pitching. There are enough rookie possibilities that we  can have the customary 2-3 guys take the next step into MLB. It happens every year.  We don’t know who will but there are 5-8 guys that are close. They wont all fail. They wont all be 140 ops+ or 3.00era 1.1Whip but we will get good rookie production. We always do.  

Always? Do you hear yourself? 2022 was only 18 months ago. 

[Fatbat]

16 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Always? Do you hear yourself? 2022 was only 18 months ago. 

2022 had a nice rookie class. Ryan, Duran and Miranda. 

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That's a massive overgeneralization. 59, 45, and 88. Those are Kirilloff's total games played in each of the last three seasons. Every player on the roster is just as likely to post a stretch like that? Stop. 

My logic? You keep bringing Correa and Buxton into a discussion that has nothing to do with them, and now you've stretched my skepticism that a group of young players will double their WAR output into "there's no hope for this team." C'mon, it's not that hard to argue in good faith is it? 

The problem with your logic is that you want a solution that is not possible.  Good faith also requires you have a viable alternative.  You just can't go replace these guys.  The team does not have anywhere near the financial resources to follow the practices you promote.  They could trade away their entire future but short of that the fantasy tactics you insist upon are either totally unrealistic or horrible long-term.

What is the alternative to relying on Lewis / Kirilloff and Wallner?  How do you manage the roster spots.  Are you getting rid of them, giving them bench roles or sending them, back to AAA?   

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The problem with your logic is that you want a solution that is not possible.  Good faith also requires you have a viable alternative.  You just can't go replace these guys.  The team does not have anywhere near the financial resources to follow the practices you promote.  They could trade away their entire future but short of that the fantasy tactics you insist upon are either totally unrealistic or horrible long-term.

What is the alternative to relying on Lewis / Kirilloff and Wallner?  How do you manage the roster spots.  Are you getting rid of them, giving them bench roles or sending them, back to AAA?   

Good faith would be responding to what is actually posted, not propping up a strawman and railing against it.

Viable backups, financial resources, future considerations, yada yada all have absolutely no bearing on whether or not young players will make huge jumps in WAR production this season.