Jesus Luzardo Drawing Trade Interest

[Cory Engelhardt]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/jesus-luzardo-drawing-trade-interest.html

This isn't a specific Twins rumor, but I wanted to share this one and get people's thoughts; 

To me, getting Luzardo would give the Twins a HOMERUN offseason. His arm talent is undeniable. I'm certain the package would start with Lee or Julien, but he is the type of arm I would move a LOT for.

Thoughts?

[nicksaviking]

I like some of the other Marlin and Mariner pitchers with more control, but three years is still better than this team normally does. I'd probably meet a non-offensive asking price for Luzardo. And I'm not easily offended.

[rico7961]

It might take Jeffers and Julien for the Marlins to maybe consider. They need a C bad and Julien would be a fit also

Is this to much to give up for Luzardo?

[chpettit19]

He'd be a wonderful fit for the rotation, but I think he'd cost more than the Twins should be willing to pay. I think it's far more likely they trade from the Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer group than the Luzardo, Perez, Garrett group. While I wouldn't be completely shocked by a Luzardo trade, I think we'd likely be shocked by the Luzardo price. Feels more like a "you have to blow us away" type deal. 

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He'd be a wonderful fit for the rotation, but I think he'd cost more than the Twins should be willing to pay. I think it's far more likely they trade from the Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer group than the Luzardo, Perez, Garrett group. While I wouldn't be completely shocked by a Luzardo trade, I think we'd likely be shocked by the Luzardo price. Feels more like a "you have to blow us away" type deal. 

Usually our trades involve Kepler/Polonco and the prospects, but if the Twins are trading for a top end pitcher, I think another consideration should be using Ryan/Ober as pieces as well.

I like Ryan and Ober, but I don't want to add more pitchers in that range, I want an upgrade and would be willing to use one of those two to get one. Of course in doing so, it would lessen the burden inflected on the Marlins for losing one of their top guys.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, rico7961 said:

It might take Jeffers and Julien for the Marlins to maybe consider. They need a C bad and Julien would be a fit also

Is this to much to give up for Luzardo?

I just don't see the Twins moving Jeffers right now. That's all. Julien, I can see that.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He'd be a wonderful fit for the rotation, but I think he'd cost more than the Twins should be willing to pay. I think it's far more likely they trade from the Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer group than the Luzardo, Perez, Garrett group. While I wouldn't be completely shocked by a Luzardo trade, I think we'd likely be shocked by the Luzardo price. Feels more like a "you have to blow us away" type deal. 

IF, what Bobby Nightengale quoted, the Twins are pushing for a "high impact arm" to add to the rotation this offseason, I don't know that the players you mentioned fit that description. Possibly Garrett, but I wouldn't immediately put any of them otherwise ahead of Ryan and Ober. Luzardo I would.

[rico7961]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just don't see the Twins moving Jeffers right now. That's all. Julien, I can see that.

Then it would have to Wallner and Julien offered.

It’ll take a massive offer for Luzardo and Jeffers is what the Marlins REALLY need. 
I agree though that the Twins would be very hesitant to trade Jeffers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, rico7961 said:

Then it would have to Wallner and Julien offered.

It’ll take a massive offer for Luzardo and Jeffers is what the Marlins REALLY need. 
I agree though that the Twins would be very hesitant to trade Jeffers.

I mean, if it takes Wallner and Julien, I bite that bullet. Or at least the parameters to that. Other pieces could be added on both sides in some ways, but Luzardo's arm talent is ace level.

Is Luzardo a good teammate? I haven't heard anything to the contrary, but his ability is high end.

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, if it takes Wallner and Julien, I bite that bullet. Or at least the parameters to that. Other pieces could be added on both sides in some ways, but Luzardo's arm talent is ace level.

Is Luzardo a good teammate? I haven't heard anything to the contrary, but his ability is high end.

Probably defer to Pablo Lopez for that one. I'd guess he'd get a consulting phone call if the Twins decide to deal with the Marlins again.

And also, I'd happily take Garrett. If neither of those two, I'd hound the Mariners. I'm with you, the other Marlins pitchers would only be consolation prizes. Presuming Perez is off limits all together.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Usually our trades involve Kepler/Polonco and the prospects, but if the Twins are trading for a top end pitcher, I think another consideration should be using Ryan/Ober as pieces as well.

I like Ryan and Ober, but I don't want to add more pitchers in that range, I want an upgrade and would be willing to use one of those two to get one. Of course in doing so, it would lessen the burden inflected on the Marlins for losing one of their top guys.

I'm with you on this idea. I also think one of them should be considered a possible trade piece. My #1 priority this offseason would be bringing in someone I can pair with Lopez at the top of the rotation for the next 4 years (that may not be someone with 4 years of control, but someone I believe I could extend to 4 years). I think this FO can develop guys that fill the rest of the rotation (Ryan, Ober types), but I haven't seen anything that suggests they can really nail a frontline, playoff pitcher yet. The window is opening (we hope), and I don't want to rely on someone making that jump if I can go get someone who's a near sure thing instead. Pair 2 guys at the top and have faith you can fill the rest internally while focusing on adding the needed offense moving forward. Adding Ryan or Ober to a trade is certainly a plausible way to do that, and I hope it's something they're considering.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

IF, what Bobby Nightengale quoted, the Twins are pushing for a "high impact arm" to add to the rotation this offseason, I don't know that the players you mentioned fit that description. Possibly Garrett, but I wouldn't immediately put any of them otherwise ahead of Ryan and Ober. Luzardo I would.

I'd put Luzardo, Perez (never going to happen), and Garrett ahead of them, but I think the other 3 are guys I'd put in the same tier as Ryan and Ober. I'm not really interested in giving up useful assets for a piece like that. But I'd think there's other "high impact arms" available for less than Luzardo because they have less control than Luzardo. Established frontline arms with 3 years of control are not cheap. As @nicksaviking suggested, I'd be interested in using someone from the Ryan and Ober tier to gain a guy from the higher tier. If that means that top tier pitcher has less control, so be it, but I'd want to feel comfortable that I could extend them. But I think the cost of someone in that tier is going to shock, and/or upset, people. Just like the Arraez deal last year. They're going to have to take a chance on someone, and I hope they pick the right pieces to keep.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Probably defer to Pablo Lopez for that one. I'd guess he'd get a consulting phone call if the Twins decide to deal with the Marlins again.

And also, I'd happily take Garrett. If neither of those two, I'd hound the Mariners. I'm with you, the other Marlins pitchers would only be consolation prizes. Presuming Perez is off limits all together.

Great point. Pablo would be great to work with whoever they acquire. But a former teammate, that information would be invaluable 

[nicksaviking]

How off am I? Ryan/Ober + Kepler + Vazquez and eat half his salary (as noted, they need catching) + mid level prospect for Luzardo?

Then save Polanco + Lee + Festa for one of the Mariners young pitchers.

Assuming Vazquez's remaining salary and Luzardo's arb salary are in the same ballpark, the Twins would have 35-40M left in salary to get a new backup catcher and fill in the offense in which ever way they see fit.

[mnfireman]

I am in the don't trade Jeffers camp, but to add Luzardo I think I would rather lose Jeffers (and Julien) than any of the prospects still in the minors. Vazquez grades out well defensively, and a cheap C could be gotten from FA to placehold until Camargo is ready.

[rico7961]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd put Luzardo, Perez (never going to happen), and Garrett ahead of them, but I think the other 3 are guys I'd put in the same tier as Ryan and Ober. I'm not really interested in giving up useful assets for a piece like that. But I'd think there's other "high impact arms" available for less than Luzardo because they have less control than Luzardo. Established frontline arms with 3 years of control are not cheap. As @nicksaviking suggested, I'd be interested in using someone from the Ryan and Ober tier to gain a guy from the higher tier. If that means that top tier pitcher has less control, so be it, but I'd want to feel comfortable that I could extend them. But I think the cost of someone in that tier is going to shock, and/or upset, people. Just like the Arraez deal last year. They're going to have to take a chance on someone, and I hope they pick the right pieces to keep.

The thing is Ryan and Ober are controlled for 4 more years and the Twins really should know what they have in them

They maybe could take a monumental step forward in the next year or 2, like Pablo Lopez did in 2023.

So trading either one is a crapshoot on getting something even equal to them

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

How off am I? Ryan/Ober + Kepler + Vazquez and eat half his salary (as noted, they need catching) + mid level prospect for Luzardo?

Then save Polanco + Lee + Festa for one of the Mariners young pitchers.

Assuming Vazquez's remaining salary and Luzardo's arb salary are in the same ballpark, the Twins would have 35-40M left in salary to get a new backup catcher and fill in the offense in which ever way they see fit.

I guess I don’t see the twins trading Ryan or Ober personally. I certainly like their 2024 more than I like the Mariners young guys just for 2024. I very well could be wrong. I would absolutely have Festa go instead of one of them to Miami, but we will see if something unfolds here :)

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, rico7961 said:

The thing is Ryan and Ober are controlled for 4 more years and the Twins really should know what they have in them

They maybe could take a monumental step forward in the next year or 2, like Pablo Lopez did in 2023.

So trading either one is a crapshoot on getting something even equal to them

If you buy the notion that Lopez took that step forward because of the sweeper the Twins taught him then I'd put the chances of the guys who've been with the Twins for multiple years already having the same kind of breakout to be pretty low. 

Every trade is a crapshoot. It involves risk. You have to give something to get something. Trading Arraez was a crapshoot. That's why Falvey and Levine make the big bucks. I don't think Ryan or Ober are better than #3 starters in a playoff rotation, and I'd take a shot at moving them for someone who could be a #1 or 2 in a playoff rotation. But I also didn't think Lopez was more than a #3 so what do I know? It's all a risk, and I think having them as a possible piece in a trade for someone who's already shown they can be better should be an option. We'll see where the FO goes.

[rico7961]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

How off am I? Ryan/Ober + Kepler + Vazquez and eat half his salary (as noted, they need catching) + mid level prospect for Luzardo?

Then save Polanco + Lee + Festa for one of the Mariners young pitchers.

Assuming Vazquez's remaining salary and Luzardo's arb salary are in the same ballpark, the Twins would have 35-40M left in salary to get a new backup catcher and fill in the offense in which ever way they see fit.

 

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

How off am I? Ryan/Ober + Kepler + Vazquez and eat half his salary (as noted, they need catching) + mid level prospect for Luzardo?

Then save Polanco + Lee + Festa for one of the Mariners young pitchers.

Assuming Vazquez's remaining salary and Luzardo's arb salary are in the same ballpark, the Twins would have 35-40M left in salary to get a new backup catcher and fill in the offense in which ever way they see fit.

If Miami trades Luzardo the names Lewis, Lee, and Jeffers are gonna be brought up.

Not Kepler or Vázquez. 
They won’t even consider taking on any unnecessary salary 

[Cory Engelhardt]

This article makes me think Lopez would very much be in favor of a reunion.

 

https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/4/5/23671102/pablo-lopez-jesus-luzardo-miami-reunion

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I guess I don’t see the twins trading Ryan or Ober personally. I certainly like their 2024 more than I like the Mariners young guys just for 2024. I very well could be wrong. I would absolutely have Festa go instead of one of them to Miami, but we will see if something unfolds here :)

I like them both, but I think we've seen them at their best. I think Kirby is significantly better than them, Gilbert is comfortably ahead of them and Woo is about to be better than everyone mentioned.

And if I'm honest, I think Ryan is going to have a HR problem the rest of his career. The Twins fleeced the Rays in that trade, but if I can upgrade him now before he gets the rep of a back of the rotation guy long term, I'd do it. I could see everyone looking back on Ober later and thinking he was criminally underrated though.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, rico7961 said:

 

If Miami trades Luzardo the names Lewis, Lee, and Jeffers are gonna be brought up.

Not Kepler or Vázquez. 
They won’t even consider taking on any unnecessary salary 

I haven't heard that. They were only at 93M last year and made the playoffs. Not saying it's not true, but that's news to me.

Luzardo would get more than Ryan and Ober, but the Twins themselves could get a haul if they traded either of them. Not that I have any interest in doing so for anything other than a top end starter. I don't think the difference between them is a Lee or Lewis.

[rico7961]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you buy the notion that Lopez took that step forward because of the sweeper the Twins taught him then I'd put the chances of the guys who've been with the Twins for multiple years already having the same kind of breakout to be pretty low. 

Every trade is a crapshoot. It involves risk. You have to give something to get something. Trading Arraez was a crapshoot. That's why Falvey and Levine make the big bucks. I don't think Ryan or Ober are better than #3 starters in a playoff rotation, and I'd take a shot at moving them for someone who could be a #1 or 2 in a playoff rotation. But I also didn't think Lopez was more than a #3 so what do I know? It's all a risk, and I think having them as a possible piece in a trade for someone who's already shown they can be better should be an option. We'll see where the FO goes.

Young pitchers mature as time goes by and I think Ryan and Ober should be given that opportunity in MN. 
It was more López maturing as a P, by learning a new pitch. But still I think Ryan, especially has number 2 starter written all over him as he matures as a P

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, rico7961 said:

Young pitchers mature as time goes by and I think Ryan and Ober should be given that opportunity in MN. 
It was more López maturing as a P, by learning a new pitch. But still I think Ryan, especially has number 2 starter written all over him as he matures as a P

Ober and Ryan are the same age as Lopez (Ober is actually the oldest). And they've been here longer, so if the Twins have a special knack for this maturation, they should have had a head start on him. Luzardo and Garrett are two years younger.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, rico7961 said:

Young pitchers mature as time goes by and I think Ryan and Ober should be given that opportunity in MN. 
It was more López maturing as a P, by learning a new pitch. But still I think Ryan, especially has number 2 starter written all over him as he matures as a P

Are they really "young," though? Ober is older than Lopez. Ryan is the same age. They're not 24, they're 27 and 28. That's not exactly "young" in the world of baseball. It's certainly not out of the question that they'd improve, but I wouldn't bet on it. I actually would bet on Ober improving more than Ryan. I actually think Ryan starts going backwards and ends up as a #4 or 5 over the rest of his team control. His stuff simply isn't that good, and he has a real HR problem that isn't going to be easy to solve as long as he's a guy who relies on his FB over 50% of the time, and lives at the top of the zone. But we shall see.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I like them both, but I think we've seen them at their best. I think Kirby is significantly better than them, Gilbert is comfortably ahead of them and Woo is about to be better than everyone mentioned.

And if I'm honest, I think Ryan is going to have a HR problem the rest of his career. The Twins fleeced the Rays in that trade, but I can upgrade him now before he gets the rep of a back of the rotation guy long term, I'd do it. I could see everyone looking back on Ober later and thinking he was criminally underrated though.

Here are 3 pitchers, through June of last year.

Gilbert, 26 years old,  5-5, 92 1/3 innings, 93 k's, 12 homeruns, 19 walks, 79 hits, 4.19 era, 3.58 fip.

Kirby, 25 years old, 6-7, 94 innings, 79 k's, 10 homeruns, 7 walks, 94 hits, 3.26 era, 3.24 fip

Ryan, 27 years old, 8-5, 96 2/3 innings, 105 k's,  13 homeruns 15 walks, 79 hits, 3.44 era, 3.36 fip

 

Healthy Joe Ryan was every bit as good as either of the other two last year through the end of July. IF he is healthy again, I have no reason to think that Ryan is a step below either of them. Ryan is a really good pitcher.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are they really "young," though? Ober is older than Lopez. Ryan is the same age. They're not 24, they're 27 and 28. That's not exactly "young" in the world of baseball. It's certainly not out of the question that they'd improve, but I wouldn't bet on it. I actually would bet on Ober improving more than Ryan. I actually think Ryan starts going backwards and ends up as a #4 or 5 over the rest of his team control. His stuff simply isn't that good, and he has a real HR problem that isn't going to be easy to solve as long as he's a guy who relies on his FB over 50% of the time, and lives at the top of the zone. But we shall see.

His strikeout stuff is better than everyone you listed here.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Here are 3 pitchers, through June of last year.

Gilbert, 26 years old,  5-5, 92 1/3 innings, 93 k's, 12 homeruns, 19 walks, 79 hits, 4.19 era, 3.58 fip.

Kirby, 25 years old, 6-7, 94 innings, 79 k's, 10 homeruns, 7 walks, 94 hits, 3.26 era, 3.24 fip

Ryan, 27 years old, 8-5, 96 2/3 innings, 105 k's,  13 homeruns 15 walks, 79 hits, 3.44 era, 3.36 fip

 

Healthy Joe Ryan was every bit as good as either of the other two last year through the end of July. IF he is healthy again, I have no reason to think that Ryan is a step below either of them. Ryan is a really good pitcher.

 

I've seen enough of Ryan to not trust him in the postseason, but this is all fair.

But again, my proposal was to use Ryan to get Luzardo or Garrett.

I'd use Lee (crowd boos heavily) to get a Mariner pitcher.

[Cory Engelhardt]

And see, pre-injury Ryan is better than he was in the postseason, no?

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I've seen enough of Ryan to not trust him in the postseason but this is all fair.

But again, my proposal was to use Ryan to get Luzardo or Garrett.

I'd use Lee (crowd boos heavily) to get a Mariner pitcher.

I do appreciate the creativity :)