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Posted

A very reasonable target. Likely looking at a 1 year deal probably in the range of what Bellinger got last year around 17 mil. Not sure it'll fit in the budget depending on where it ends up and what other moves they make, but I think he'd be a great add to the 1B/DH role for the 2024 Twins.

Posted

Yeah I think he’s likely a top Twins target based on their current offensive strategy. He takes as many pitches as anyone in the league, yet unlike the much of the team, his strikeout rate is only 24%.

If they trade for pitching as they typically do, he’d probably be the only free agent of note I’d care to chase.

Posted
10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

A very reasonable target. Likely looking at a 1 year deal probably in the range of what Bellinger got last year around 17 mil. Not sure it'll fit in the budget depending on where it ends up and what other moves they make, but I think he'd be a great add to the 1B/DH role for the 2024 Twins.

$17 million feels like an aggressive increase for someone who sat out all of the 2023 season with a torn ACL. His 2023 arbitration salary was $12 million. 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

$17 million feels like an aggressive increase for someone who sat out all of the 2023 season with a torn ACL. His 2023 arbitration salary was $12 million. 

17 felt aggressive for a guy with a 44 OPS+ in 2021 and 81 OPS+ in 2022, but that's what Bellinger got in 2023. I think a weak FA class, especially for bats, helps drive his price up some. If you can get him for less you should obviously try to do that, but he was a 2+ WAR player before he got hurt, and he was already doing full sprints around the bases before the end of the year so by all signs he's healthy and 2 WAR generally costs you in the 16-18 mil range on the open market. It's not like speed was his game anyways so I don't think there's much concern about him not being able to bounce back on a 1 year pillow deal. Maybe it's only 15? But I'd bet he ends up in the 15-18 range.

Posted
6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

17 felt aggressive for a guy with a 44 OPS+ in 2021 and 81 OPS+ in 2022, but that's what Bellinger got in 2023. I think a weak FA class, especially for bats, helps drive his price up some. If you can get him for less you should obviously try to do that, but he was a 2+ WAR player before he got hurt, and he was already doing full sprints around the bases before the end of the year so by all signs he's healthy and 2 WAR generally costs you in the 16-18 mil range on the open market. It's not like speed was his game anyways so I don't think there's much concern about him not being able to bounce back on a 1 year pillow deal. Maybe it's only 15? But I'd bet he ends up in the 15-18 range.

$17 million is what Bellinger got from arbitration in 2022 and the Cubs matched it. If Hoskins is getting $15-18 million the mid market teams are in big trouble this winter. 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

$17 million is what Bellinger got from arbitration in 2022 and the Cubs matched it. If Hoskins is getting $15-18 million the mid market teams are in big trouble this winter. 

Bellinger was terrible in 2022 and 2021. He wasn't worth anywhere near 17 in those years. Hoskins got hurt, but there's no reason to believe he's going to be worse in 2024 than he was in 2021 and 2022 when he was healthy and was worth 15-18. I know people hate the Gallo deal, but that was a raise on his last arb deal. Bellinger getting the same value as his last arb deal when he'd been more unplayable than playable the 2 previous seasons is actually an argument for Hoskins getting a slight raise on his last arb deal when he'd been well worth that money and only missed a year for an injury that isn't at all likely to effect his play.

But arguing about this is pointless. We'll see where he ends up.

Posted

mlbtraderumors.com is predicting 2 years-$18M for Hoskins. While that number isn’t impossible for the Twins to  meet, I think it would preclude a major signing for center field and perhaps for the rotation. If either Polanco or Kepler is dealt, maybe the Twins will spend that kind of money on a 1B-DH.

Turner would fill a similar role, but being older, he might be available for a similar annual rate on a one-year deal. 

Posted

Looking at some of the recent FA contracts, $15M-$20M is in the range of Rizzo, Benintendi, Conforto, Contreras, Abreu, and others. There is value to be had if he can return to '21 form, but moving away from the bandbox that is Citizen's Bank Park and a severe knee injury doesn't bode well for his chances. I'd rather resign Solano.

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