Three Top-Tier Left-Handed Starting Pitchers the Twins Should Consider Signing

[KBJ1]

Montgomery seems to be the only one of the 3 leftys who seems consistent, mentally & physically. 

Trade for SP is more likely what they will do.

Wouldn't mind seeing a run at Yamamoto for a possible long term smashing success!

Austin Martin makes the club plays CF when Buxton can't. 

Just need a RH slugger for left field and maybe a plan B for 1B better than in house or Solano.

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

No chance Twins go 5 years $100MM+ on any of these three.  Given the pitching pipeline, I’d think a two year deal with a slight overpay for Gray is way more likely. Even a one year deal with an option for Maeda is a better fit given current circumstances.

You're not going to like the projected salaries on MLBtraderumors

Snell 7 years $200M

Montgomery 6 years $150M

Gray 4 years $90M

Rodriguez 4 years $82M

 

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

IF we accept the proposed speculation of Rodriguez for around $19M-ish per, I don't think they would balk at that number.

Eduardo Rodriguez has some family issues that led to him rejecting a trade to the Dodgers. I have no idea where he wants to play but it won't be just money making the determination. I think his family is based in Miami.

[TopGunn#22]

Doc Bauer, it's never a "bad" thing when you write a longer than usual response because you always make good points and your logic is well thought out.  :)

What was the main reason The Twins won their division and broke the playoff losing streak?     PITCHING !!

The top target would be Snell, but the bargain, and someone who over a 4 to 5 year contract might be more consistent is Eduardo Rodriguez.  I wouldn't spend that kind of money for a "crafty" pitch to contact left handed starter.  I'd like to see the Twins actually be aggressive on TWO F.A. pitchers.  Ed-Rod and Lucas Giolito.  Ed-Rod would finally give the Twins a lefty in the rotation and he would slot right behind Lopez as #2.  I'd slot Giolito at #3.  He's an innings eater who strikes guys out.  Outside of the toxic environment of the White Sox I think he could go back to being Lucas Giolito.  I've got Ryan and Ober interchangeable as #4 & #5.  Paddock is needed as a depth SP for the expected trips major league pitchers make to the I.L.  At least guys like Lopez and Giolito are pretty dependable to give you 170+ innings.

This allows you to move Varland to the bullpen for 2024.  It also allows the Twins to use Polanco, Farmer, Theilbar, Larnach and Miranda to shed payroll, acquire a better CF option and replenish minor league talent where the Twins feel they are lacking.

This team is coming off a divisional title and is set to compete for several years for divisional titles and maybe more in the playoffs.  This is no time for the Twins ownership or F.O. to take their foot off the gas.  Was talking to a Brewers fan this morning who was lamenting the loss of their manager to the divisional rival Cubs.  He hearkened back to 2018, after the Brewers had knocked the mighty Dodgers out of the playoffs.  He was saying "that was the beginning of our 5 year window to maybe bring a World Series Championship home to Milwaukee.  Instead, ownership tried to get by on the cheap and ended up squandering the chance.  Now look where we are, it's time to break it all down and start over.  Five year window is closed, and how long will it take us to build back up to compete in the N.L. Central?"  

He's spot on.  The Twins have a bona fide window.  The key is not to get cheap and squander it.  Don't take your foot off the gas !!  

[Cody Schoenmann]

20 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Ervin Santana remains the largest, single contract ever handed out by the Twins at 4yrs and somewhere in the $40-45M range, as stated above.

The current FO largest FA deal, I believe, remains Michael Pineda, signed on a "get well" deal with time and money following his rehab season. Something they might still consider for Mahle, and very much similar to what they've done with Paddack.

They like to aquire rotation talent via trade; Maeda, Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Paddack, for promise, potential, and no albatross contract. They also like to develop young arms from within; Ober and Varland being the first real options there, though others have auditioned. Or a combination of trade and youth like Ryan. And I have a hard time arguing with most of their results and their payroll. 

So far, larger deals have been made for Donaldson, Cruz (though it wasn't a HUGE deal or long), and Correa. 

BUT, in 2018 and 2020 they took a serious shot at Darvish and Wheeler. IIRC, Darvish was 4yrs and around $20M, but they never got too far on Wheeler as he made his intentions to stay on the east coast quite clear very early, so what they were willing to offer is open to debate. They've been linked to a handful of other FA arms in the past, but again, where any interest and potential offers that might have been offered is up to conjecture.

I DON'T think they would pass on a large FA contract if it made sense. IF we accept the proposed speculation of Rodriguez for around $19M-ish per, I don't think they would balk at that number. And they've been tied to him before, so they obviously like him, and probably see him perhaps raising his game a bit with their tutelage. 

Where they have issues, is not just $ per season, but the length of a deal. Their sweet spot is 3 and 4 years. They don't trust a 5 year deal or more, believing the total return won't equal the investment. And I'm not debating that, just stating facts.

The whole "ownership is cheap" mantra is, or should be dismissed. The payroll has, generally, raised every year the current FO has been in charge. And they have pretty much ranked 17th in all of MLB just about every single year. Which is in keeping with general market size and proported revenue.

There are tendencies for players, coaches/managers/ and FO/ownership in sports. The Twins have NOT cut spending in some time. And I don't believe they want to this offseason either. This team/organization is in great shape, and right about where you'd want it. Even if they kept payroll the same in 2024 as in 2023, they'd still have room to play with. 

And while I agree with other posters that the lack of a TV deal in place for next season, and beyond, comes as no surprise and the Twins have surely been working on this for some time now...the truth is, it's still a complete unknown unless there is something around the corner already agreed on that nobody knows about.

I'm not saying the Twins ARE going to cut payroll. I remain 50% hopeful they've been planning ahead enough and are willing to "go above" their comfort level enough to keep status quo for now, and 50% they might cut at least a little. Hell, I might even be 60/40.

So it's NOT poor speculation to think they might surprise us. Especially when so much of the total roster is young and under control. 

In the MLB fantasy world, I'm not unconvinced that my #1 option wouldn't be Nola. But since we are talking LH options, Snell scares me. He's produced OK but not great for his career save 2 outstanding seasons. But those 2 Cy Young type of seasons will drive up his market.

I like Rodriguez better than Montgomery. I like a higher K rate and "getting it done" for a longer career, despite being slightly younger. And I can just see the Twins salivating over re-working his slider in to a sweeper, lowering his sinker, etc, and him taking a step forward. At 31yo, if he could be signed for 4-5yrs at an AVERAGE of $20-21M per, I'm not so sure the Twins wouldn't jump. You get him for 3-4 prime years, and could front load some of the deal while most of the lineup is still inexpensive.

It's probably, unfortunately...no insult to the players themselves...going to be Maeda back, or a 2yr deal to Giolito on a rebound deal, maybe with incentives.

But it's at least 50/50 the next rotation arm comes in some sort of trade. 

I do think a lot of people are under valuing Varland. A lot! But I absolutely want the Twins to go to camp with at least 6 SP.

 

Thank you for your contributions, @DocBauer.  I agree the Twins are more likely to go after a pitcher in the realm of Maeda, Giolito, or Ryu, (Giolito is my personal favorite!) but I think it is worth at least discussing the idea of them signing frontline starters like Snell, Rodriguez, and Montgomery.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

IMHO, 1st base is the easiest position to cover, so I am not worried about chasing down a first-baseman. CF is far more important, so for position players, that is the only one I would be concerned about. As for the other infield positions, the Twins should be more than covered. Julien was starting to play much better at 2nd as the season progressed. He actually made a couple of fine plays against Toronto. He'll also start to hit lefties better if he's given the chance IMHO. That's a natural progression for hitters with his approach. 3rd is also covered by Lewis and Castro can back up any of the infield positions with more than adequate play. To me, that makes Polanco expendible. I would think that his trade value is pretty good--better now than at the deadline because anything can happen, so I would go after a centerfielder, and, as I have often said, how about Nootbar? He's not a homerun hitter but he gets on base.

As for pitching, sure the three aforementioned pitchers would be great to land, but I wonder how many folks really think the Twins are going to go all in on the open market. I suspect that even the estimates for salary are low, so that puts the Twins out of play. I'd be happy to be wrong, but I just don't see it.

Maybe trading for a lefthander like Kikuchi is something the Twins could do, but chasing down a big money pitcher? I'll believe it only after the mystery pitcher has signed on the dotted line.

I agree that Polanco is a tradeable asset.  Love the guy, but we have a surplus of infielders and Jorge isn't getting younger.  

[Heiny]

20 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Doc Bauer, it's never a "bad" thing when you write a longer than usual response because you always make good points and your logic is well thought out.  :)

What was the main reason The Twins won their division and broke the playoff losing streak?     PITCHING !!

The top target would be Snell, but the bargain, and someone who over a 4 to 5 year contract might be more consistent is Eduardo Rodriguez.  I wouldn't spend that kind of money for a "crafty" pitch to contact left handed starter.  I'd like to see the Twins actually be aggressive on TWO F.A. pitchers.  Ed-Rod and Lucas Giolito.  Ed-Rod would finally give the Twins a lefty in the rotation and he would slot right behind Lopez as #2.  I'd slot Giolito at #3.  He's an innings eater who strikes guys out.  Outside of the toxic environment of the White Sox I think he could go back to being Lucas Giolito.  I've got Ryan and Ober interchangeable as #4 & #5.  Paddock is needed as a depth SP for the expected trips major league pitchers make to the I.L.  At least guys like Lopez and Giolito are pretty dependable to give you 170+ innings.

This allows you to move Varland to the bullpen for 2024.  It also allows the Twins to use Polanco, Farmer, Theilbar, Larnach and Miranda to shed payroll, acquire a better CF option and replenish minor league talent where the Twins feel they are lacking.

This team is coming off a divisional title and is set to compete for several years for divisional titles and maybe more in the playoffs.  This is no time for the Twins ownership or F.O. to take their foot off the gas.  Was talking to a Brewers fan this morning who was lamenting the loss of their manager to the divisional rival Cubs.  He hearkened back to 2018, after the Brewers had knocked the mighty Dodgers out of the playoffs.  He was saying "that was the beginning of our 5 year window to maybe bring a World Series Championship home to Milwaukee.  Instead, ownership tried to get by on the cheap and ended up squandering the chance.  Now look where we are, it's time to break it all down and start over.  Five year window is closed, and how long will it take us to build back up to compete in the N.L. Central?"  

He's spot on.  The Twins have a bona fide window.  The key is not to get cheap and squander it.  Don't take your foot off the gas !!  

Agree with this 100%.  Would love to see the Twins sign two free agent SPs.  Snell/Giolito,  Rodriguez/Mongomery,  Rodriquez/Giolioto, Montgomery/Giolito.  And maybe to keep everyone happy to start the season at least,  maybe go with a six man rotation to save on arms somewhat and keep Varland in the pen, where he has done quite well.  

[TopGunn#22]

Thanks Heiny !  My "wish" is that the Twins will be aggressive and realize that throughout this upcoming 5 year window each year is going to require some tweaks and polishing.  This year is a crucial year because we're at the "beginning" of that window.  Other years won't take as much tinkering but certainly when we come to the end of 2027 or 2028 when Buxton, Correa and Lopez are coming to the end or near end of their deals and guys like Lewis, Julien, Lee, E-Rod and Jenkins will be at various points of getting their payday or some form of a team friendly extension like a Kepler or Polanco, then, other big decisions will need to be made.

Signing TWO pitchers in FA just isn't going to happen.  The Twins rarely even sign ONE.  What I think is a realistic hope is that they sign one and trade for another.  I think Giolito is a good target if we can get him for 3 yrs and $12-$13 million per year.  He's not like Happ, Bundy or Archer at all.  He's a workhorse who eats innings and strikes people out.  In a more stable situation in Minnesota, maybe we can help unlock something that gets him back to 2019-2021 form.  It's a good gamble to take.

We got where we did in 2023 because of pitching.  The market for pitching is going to be red hot this off season.  Guys will get paid a lot more than we think they will.  Giolito is a good buy low candidate who could turn out to be a steal.  I'm not interested in some one year "prove it" contract.  I want to build stability and known costs going forward.  The less you have to go into each off season needing 2 SP's for your rotation, the better it is to determine if someone like a Varland or Festa are ready to take the next step.

Each year will have big questions for which an answer will eventually come.  I want Varland in our bullpen to lengthen it and make it downright dominant.  That requires at least two additional SP's to go with Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddock.  So a big question for me next year is Matt Canterino.  If he breaks camp with the team, bypassing AAA, or comes up in May and stays healthy, he's a guy that would allow me to put Varland back in the rotation in 2025. 

With pitching, it's always better to have more than not enough.  What if Ryan or Ober stagnate?  Or take a step back?  That's why I'd make a deal with Milwaukee where we switch out Ryan for Corbin Burnes.  You take on a salary but with all the young position players and even some pitchers the Twins should have room in the payroll to boast a Burnes & Lopez at the top of the staff.  And remember, Burnes is only ONE YEAR older than Ryan.