Vanimal46’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint

[Vanimal46]

• C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M)
• 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($8.00)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M)
• LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M)
• CF: Cody Bellinger ($25.00M)
• RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M)
• DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M)
• 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M)
• Utility: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• Utility: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M)
• Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M)
• SP5: Tyler Glasnow ($15.2M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M)
• RP: Internal Reliever (Sands DFA) ($0.77M)
• RP: Spring Training Invite (Moran DFA) ($0.77M)
• RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M)

Payroll is 5.57% under budget - I am sure this isn't right. I clicked enter and it posted immediately before making my changes. 

This is the pipe dream. The #1 target for me this offseason is Cody Bellinger. I think he is the ideal insurance for both Buxton and Kirilloff. My next big splash is making a trade for Tyler Glasnow from Tampa. In traditional Tampa fashion, they will look to get out of a bigger contract like his (year 1 of a 2 year $30.4 million contract). 

 

[Sielk]

This is a fun one! Just out of curiosity, who did you trade to the Rays for Glasnow? And how many years and total dollars for Bellinger?

[TwinsAce]

I think this ends up at about $160 million ($159.50??), so slightly less than 6% overbudget.  If it wasn't for the Twins TV contract issue, I would think one could push ownership to this level.  Curious to see what happens though.

[Vanimal46]

19 minutes ago, Sielk said:

This is a fun one! Just out of curiosity, who did you trade to the Rays for Glasnow? And how many years and total dollars for Bellinger?

Trade values are always tough to guess. Baseball Trade Values has Glasnow for Moran and Larnach as a slight overpay on behalf of the Twins. And frankly I'd take that deal in a heart beat. I am sure they will want a couple of prospects in the deal. 

With Bellinger, I have no problem going 6/$150 million. 8/$200 is where I would walk away. 

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, TwinsAce said:

I think this ends up at about $160 million ($159.50??), so slightly less than 6% overbudget.  If it wasn't for the Twins TV contract issue, I would think one could push ownership to this level.  Curious to see what happens though.

If I had to cut costs, I would look to trade Polanco to get back to around $150 million, and replace him with a veteran like Solano for cheap or Austin Martin at the league minimum. 

[Mike Sixel]

I love the ideas.....but no way I pay Bellinger for more than three years......He wasn't all that good the last few years before this one. And, at some point, he won't be all that good in CF, imo. I'd rather spend that money and Polanco's on a top end starter and take my chances in CF with Martin. 

[Sielk]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Trade values are always tough to guess. Baseball Trade Values has Glasnow for Moran and Larnach as a slight overpay on behalf of the Twins. And frankly I'd take that deal in a heart beat. I am sure they will want a couple of prospects in the deal. 

So would I, and that probably tells us that it wouldn't be enough. Normally, when talking about a contender, I would assume they want major leaguers or MLB-ready prospects in return. But this is the Rays, so who knows? You're probably right that they would want prospects. But I like Glasnow as a target.

14 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

With Bellinger, I have no problem going 6/$150 million. 8/$200 is where I would walk away. 

Yeah, I don't know if I would go longer than six years. Bellinger has such a weird track record. I would probably have to do a little more research to decide that, tbh.

[weitz41]

I really like this one. Not to pull on the loose threads but Hoskins for 8 mil seems really light. One year deal? Also, I think Glasow's actual salary is 25 mil for 2024. He signed last offseason a 2-year deal that is backloaded. Still really like this team.

[Vanimal46]

19 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

I really like this one. Not to pull on the loose threads but Hoskins for 8 mil seems really light. One year deal? Also, I think Glasow's actual salary is 25 mil for 2024. He signed last offseason a 2-year deal that is backloaded. Still really like this team.

I'm probably too light on him but yeah, that's the idea. 1 year bounce back contract after he missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL. 

Also, good catch on Glasnow's salary structure. He is indeed making $25 million. Damn, that throws a wrench in my plan to trade for him.

[Vanimal46]

Thanks to @weitz41correctly pointing out Glasnow's $25 million salary, I think I'm going to pivot and try to trade for Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee. He's also on the last year of arbitration and per MLB Trade Rumors, is projected to make $15 million. 

[Vanimal46]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I love the ideas.....but no way I pay Bellinger for more than three years......He wasn't all that good the last few years before this one. And, at some point, he won't be all that good in CF, imo. I'd rather spend that money and Polanco's on a top end starter and take my chances in CF with Martin. 

I understand the hesitation when he was completely lost in 2021 and 2022. I still like his upside very much as a former MVP and the nice bounce back year in 2023. He profiles as a guy who will age gracefully in his mid 30s IMO. I envision him being an every day CF for the next 2-3 years, then transition to corner OF/1B in the last 2-3 years of the contract.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I understand the hesitation when he was completely lost in 2021 and 2022. I still like his upside very much as a former MVP and the nice bounce back year in 2023. He profiles as a guy who will age gracefully in his mid 30s IMO. I envision him being an every day CF for the next 2-3 years, then transition to corner OF/1B in the last 2-3 years of the contract.

That makes sense, we just have different risk tolerance for this player. 

[tony&rodney]

The lists out tonight agree with my guess of more than $200 million to Bellinger. I like him, but do the Twins go that high?

[Vanimal46]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The lists out tonight agree with my guess of more than $200 million to Bellinger. I like him, but do the Twins go that high?

Tough call there. If $200 million is the number he’s seeking, the Twins would have to stretch the term length in that contract to at least 9 or 10 years.