Ryan Jeffers Is More Impactful Offensively Than Luis Arraez

[jdgoin]

17 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

You overrate BA way too much; it doesn't really tell you all that much about the quality of a hitter. 

Batting average was created to determine how often a player got a hit per at-bat. It really was made to measure the quality of a hitter.

[jdgoin]

On 8/29/2023 at 2:08 PM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

but his quality of contact is exceptional. A hard-hit rate of 43.9% and an average launch angle of 16.8 degrees means that he's consistently hitting hard line drives. In contrast, Arraez's 23.9% hard-hit rate (much lower than it was in '22) does not give him much ability to do damage in the same way that Jeffers does.

What you're measuring in bold is xwOBA, which Arraez is at .343 & Jeffers is .325.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

I'm an analytics nerd, but even I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that Gallo has been average. That being said, I don't think wRC+ is grossly overvaluing his production this season, it's just that he has been so bad for so long that our perception of him has soured.

We have to remember that he was putting up MVP type numbers in March and April. He was pretty much the only bright spot in the lineup and singlehandedly won us some games. If you look at his numbers from May on his production has been 18 percent below average, which I feel is much more in line with what we think of Gallo nowadays.

I'm sure if Gallo's production had been more even and if he had come through in clutch situations more we would view his season a little differently. 

That MVP stretch was 13ish games in April where he hit 7 HRs. He's at nearly 300 PAs since then, and like you said, it has been really bad. Idk if perception is really being skewed here. Maybe we need to define "grossly." 

[insagt1]

50 minutes ago, jdgoin said:

What you're measuring in bold is xwOBA, which Arraez is at .343 & Jeffers is .325.

let me correct....what Jeffers did. Lately Jeffers is Gallo. And thats not helping. Twins lost 2 of 3 to Cleveland and will probably lose the season series now, Yesterday's game was for me, maybe the worst loss of the year. both because of the opponent and also the total failure of the bullpen when they needed it most. All 3 failed..Duran the worst. that 2nd run was hard to watch.

In September I measure success and failure in 7 day increments. Nothing done in the past really matters now.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

16 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

let me correct....what Jeffers did. Lately Jeffers is Gallo. And thats not helping. Twins lost 2 of 3 to Cleveland and will probably lose the season series now, Yesterday's game was for me, maybe the worst loss of the year. both because of the opponent and also the total failure of the bullpen when they needed it most. All 3 failed..Duran the worst. that 2nd run was hard to watch.

In September I measure success and failure in 7 day increments. Nothing done in the past really matters now.

How good is your forecast? What is it based on?

[insagt1]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

How good is your forecast? What is it based on?

no forecast honestly. im concerned about the upcoming 3 game series with Cleveland. At the very worst Twins have to win at least one of those games. then they hang on. They will be getting some injured players back (which should keep Gallo and Luplow, if still around, on the bench) Bullpen has become a liability lately. I really want Twins to win the division and even win a playoff game finally. They have hung around most the season with a pretty mediocre record and I believe a ton of potential just waiting to get uncapped...hopefully. Can Buck play? Can Kirilloff get his stroke back? What about Gordon?

I frankly base my hopes on the 'eye test'. At this time of year, who gets hot. Who has that jump we used to see with Cruz for example. Who will step up and take charge. It may surprise us. We'll see.

[insagt1]

Arraez last multi-hit game was Aug 13th. He has had only 3 this month. Quite a cool off for sure. He has 6 hitless games this month. Contrast July where he had 10 multi-hit games and 6 hitless games. He hit .354 in July and .229 in August. Wow. Goes to show how hard it is to sustain a real high BA in MLB. I doubt anyone will reach Ted Williams' .406 in 1941 again. Just like no one will hit safely in 56 straight games anymore. The number of no-hitters Nolan Ryan pitched is safe. Ripkens ironman streak will never be reached. I doubt that in todays game no starting pitcher will ever win 300 games. That 'stat' has really been downplayed in recent years when starters really only pitch 5 or 6 innings most the time. But at one time 'wins' were a feather in the cap of starters who routinely would either go the distance or 8 innings. 100 stolen bases? Unlikely but possible.

Those of us who have watched the game 'develop' over the decades...lets say from the 50's to the present have stories to tell!

[ewen21]

Fun Fact: Luis Arraez has more hits this year than Ryan Jeffers has in his career.  

[Squirrel]

Please stick to the topic.