Through 48 games, nothing has changed.

[mcrow]

Still mediocre at best at the plate, bad on the mound.

 

In fact, the Twins are on pace to score 20 less runs this year than last and give up 19 fewer. So basically, at this point, it's a wash and the Twins have not improved in any meaningful way.

 

Granted, most us didn't expect a playoff run but 68 wins is less than expected.

 

The only good to come of this year so far is Morneau being back (somewhat) and getting a glimpse of Arcia's talent. Diamond has been a disappointment to this point, though I expected a step back. Thielbar has looked good in the short term.

 

Hopefully, they will turn it around some the rest of the season but so far there has been very little progress to brag about.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins were clearly rebuilding, so they could argue that the win/loss record is not how to measue them (though the front office would never admit to such a thing). What is distressing is the lack of development from the young guys who the team was hoping would be part of the future. Hicks has been a mess, Arcia took a step back after his decent start and got demoted. Parmelee still hasn't proven to be worthy of a starting gig and he's been given a lot of time. Dozier can't hit and Plouffe is the same guy they saw last year minus the insane month-long power binge.

 

If Gibson comes up and flops, people might start jumping off of bridges.

[mcrow]

The Twins were clearly rebuilding, so they could argue that the win/loss record is not how to measue them (though the front office would never admit to such a thing). What is distressing is the lack of development from the young guys who the team was hoping would be part of the future. Hicks has been a mess, Arcia took a step back after his decent start and got demoted. Parmelee still hasn't proven to be worthy of a starting gig and he's been given a lot of time. Dozier can't hit and Plouffe is the same guy they saw last year minus the insane month-long power binge.

 

If Gibson comes up and flops, people might start jumping off of bridges.

 

 

Exactly. I'm not worried about wins but with nothing notable otherwise to look at then I have to go back to wins. I still think Arcia is going to be a hell of a hitter in the majors one day but Hicks, I'm about ready to write off. I could handle 68 wins if it looked like some young talent was coming soon but right now, outside of Gibson (maybe) there really isn't anyone at the majors or soon to be that can show progress of the organization. Maybe a year or two we'll have a few of those guys but right now it's not looking good.

[scottz]

There was a poll back in February that 89 people voted in.

< 60 wins - 2 people

60-69 - 19

70-79 - 56

80-89 - 10

90+ - 2

 

I voted for 70-79, but only because it included the numbers 70-73. If the categories were rearranged to say

<65

65-74

75-84

85-94

90+

 

I think an awful lot of people would have been in that 65-74 bracket. It might be a worse season than most people hoped, but is about the kind of season that most people thought it would be. Maybe it just happened in a different way than we thought.

[twinsnorth49]

The Twins were clearly rebuilding, so they could argue that the win/loss record is not how to measue them (though the front office would never admit to such a thing). What is distressing is the lack of development from the young guys who the team was hoping would be part of the future. Hicks has been a mess, Arcia took a step back after his decent start and got demoted. Parmelee still hasn't proven to be worthy of a starting gig and he's been given a lot of time. Dozier can't hit and Plouffe is the same guy they saw last year minus the insane month-long power binge.

 

If Gibson comes up and flops, people might start jumping off of bridges.

 

Hicks should be in Rochester and I would hardly accuse Arcia of taking a step back, considering he was yo-yo'ed all over the outfield in between rests on the bench. Both those guys are still a big part of the future and I believe Parmelee is as well.

 

Plouffe and Dozier, I'm not so sure, both are placeholders anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

Need some young guys to be good.....that's what they need.

[mcrow]

There was a poll back in February that 89 people voted in.

< 60 wins - 2 people

60-69 - 19

70-79 - 56

80-89 - 10

90+ - 2

 

I voted for 70-79, but only because it included the numbers 70-73. If the categories were rearranged to say

<65

65-74

75-84

85-94

90+

 

I think an awful lot of people would have been in that 65-74 bracket. It might be a worse season than most people hoped, but is about the kind of season that most people thought it would be. Maybe it just happened in a different way than we thought.

 

I was thinking 74 or so if everything went well with the FA signings so given how those have turned out 68 wouldn't be terrible. Most disappointing is just not getting anything from the young players (for the most part).

[gunnarthor]

Way too early to give up on Hicks. He's struggling and will probably be sent to AAA soon but he will be a pretty good player for us eventually.

[Mike Sixel]

68 is terrible, anyway you shake it......especially if the team has almost no young players playing well.....

[twinsnorth49]

but Hicks, I'm about ready to write off.

 

Seriously? Without at least giving him some time in AAA, where he's never even played before.

[fairweather]

You have to think the Twins planned to be really bad again this season. They must be intent on piling up high draft picks in these years until the wave of talent hits over the late next year and then try to field a competitive team in 2015 and beyond. It sucks for us that the Bill Smith era happened. It sucks for us that 23 million doesn't buy much offensive production for the foreseeable future. It sucks that TR will never bring in quality veteran pitching. When Sano and Buxton and Arcia and Berrios and Meyer and Kepler and May hit the scene it will suck no more.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I thought at the start of the year we would end up in the mid-to-upper 70s in wins. I still feel that way. We've just been through a 10-game losing streak that knocked the pace down a bit - before that we were playing .500 ball. I suspect the final reality will be in between the two. The rotation will not remain as bad as it has been - the hitting will not remain as bad as it has been.

[Mike Sixel]

Bill Smith era....um, this MLB team has no good young players (takes 4-6 years to come up) from before Smith was here. Sano and other great players came in under Smith. This is not about Smith.....

[Winston Smith]

I asked this before but is Span (2008) the last Twins prospect that came up and gave us 2 plus years of major league level play? None of the guys this year or the last couple have proven anything. Going back over the years there just aren't position players or pitchers that have come up and been proven major leaguers in a long time. I think the biggest problem is the last 3-4 drafts Ryan did before semi retiring have produced nothing. Who is the last starter drafted by the Twins that has been a consistent major leaguer. Garza?

[mcrow]

Seriously? Without at least giving him some time in AAA, where he's never even played before.

 

Not meaning that I don't think he can be a serviceable player at the MLB level some day but the idea that he will be more than average is begining to seem unlikely.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I find it amusing that people who complain about Gardy's lack of patience with young players are ready to jettison younger players after just a few months. It can years for a young player to figure it out at the major league level. Giving up on guys like Hicks, Plouffe, Parmelee, and others after what would be sporadic playing time in some cases is a bit silly.

 

You have to have patience with younger players. Not all will be stars right away.

[Winston Smith]

I went and looked up these drafts. 02: Span, Crain and Neshek; 03: Baker; 04: Perkins; 05: Garza, Slowey & Duensing; 06: nobody; 07: Revere; 08: Hicks.

When you rely on the draft this is a very poor track record. Except for 08 this is all on Ryan.

[nicksaviking]

Hicks should be in Rochester and I would hardly accuse Arcia of taking a step back, considering he was yo-yo'ed all over the outfield in between rests on the bench. Both those guys are still a big part of the future and I believe Parmelee is as well.

 

Plouffe and Dozier, I'm not so sure, both are placeholders anyway.

 

This is might be more troubling. It tells me Gardy is managing for his job and playing matchups or making a point to a young player. Obviously Arcia needed to play every day. Managing to save a job and getting youngsters experience don't coexist well.

 

Between the DFAs, the lack of CF options, the unexpected (non)promotions in all levels and the playing time for youngsters, I don't think this front office has a very solid game plan. It seems more like they're winging it at this point which upsets me considering this rebuild SHOULD be three years in already.

[Mike Sixel]

It is all on the scouting director ryan had working for him then......but its not like he traded well, or kept certain players around he could have......so it is partly on Ryan, partly on Smith, partly on a lot of people really, but it is NOT all on Smith, that's clear.

[twinsnorth49]

Not meaning that I don't think he can be a serviceable player at the MLB level some day but the idea that he will be more than average is begining to seem unlikely.

 

At 23 and after 48 games he's labelled as "average"? Sure, he's struggled but don't you think that assessment is a bit premature? He's flashed some power, is becoming steadier in CF and seems to at least have some kind of clue from the right side.

[twinsnorth49]

This is might be more troubling. It tells me Gardy is managing for his job and playing matchups or making a point to a young player. Obviously Arcia needed to play every day. Managing to save a job and getting youngsters experience don't coexist well.

 

Between the DFAs, the lack of CF options, the unexpected (non)promotions in all levels and the playing time for youngsters, I don't think this front office has a very solid game plan. It seems more like they're winging it at this point which upsets me considering this rebuild SHOULD be three years in already.

 

I'm not sure Gardy is managing to save his job but he is a central figure and willing participant in continuing this charade that this can be a remotely competitve team. All in all, you're right, it 's not good for the development of young players to be part of such a scenario.

 

The game plan is off the rails, let's see if it takes the appropriate course come the trade deadline, that's my last stop with this FO crew.

[ashbury]

Not meaning that I don't think he can be a serviceable player at the MLB level some day but the idea that he will be more than average is begining to seem unlikely.

 

An average CFer is pretty valuable. By definition there will be only about 20 or so of them at any time. Span is average, and look at the pitching prospect he brought in return, if a team is so-inclined to trade him. If that's Hicks's ceiling, he's still worth cultivating. Maybe Rochester's the right place, except for the lack of other options on the major league team because (ahem) CFers are valuable.

[mcrow]

Drafting has been an issue under Ryan.

 

Early in his career it wasn't bad

 

1994: Koskie, Todd Walker, Pierzynski.

1995: -

1996: Travis Lee, Jacque Jones

1997: Cuddy,Lecroy, J.C. Romero

1998: J.J. Putz

1999: Morneau

2000: Jason Kubel

2001: Mauer

2002: Span, Jesse Crain, Neshek

2003: Scott Baker

2004: Perkins

2005: Garza

2006: -

2007: -

 

Probably 11 solid or better players in those years. Not great drafting but not terrible. If you get 1-2 players each draft that becomes solid or better at the MLB level you're doing pretty good.

[mcrow]

At 23 and after 48 games he's labelled as "average"? Sure, he's struggled but don't you think that assessment is a bit premature? He's flashed some power, is becoming steadier in CF and seems to at least have some kind of clue from the right side.

 

I'm not labelling him anything, simple saying that the odds that he is more than an average player are not good. That doesn't meant that I don't think he has no chance of being better than average but he has such huge holes in his hitting that it will be a real struggle for him to ever hit more than .260. That's not saying something couldn't click one day and he makes a huge jump but as he stands now the outlook isn't all that impressive.

[mcrow]

An average CFer is pretty valuable. By definition there will be only about 20 or so of them at any time. Span is average, and look at the pitching prospect he brought in return, if a team is so-inclined to trade him. If that's Hicks's ceiling, he's still worth cultivating. Maybe Rochester's the right place, except for the lack of other options on the major league team because (ahem) CFers are valuable.

 

Again, I didn't say get rid of him just that I think at this point the expectation of what he can be needs to be adjusted. If he hits .260 some day, that will have been a great feat and at that he would probably be worthy of playing in the majors given his other talents.

[gunnarthor]

I went and looked up these drafts. 02: Span, Crain and Neshek; 03: Baker; 04: Perkins; 05: Garza, Slowey & Duensing; 06: nobody; 07: Revere; 08: Hicks.

When you rely on the draft this is a very poor track record. Except for 08 this is all on Ryan.

 

The drafts have been a bit interesting. The 04 draft we took Plouffe and 4 pitchers in the first. Baseball America ranked the Twins draft the best. And then all four pitchers ended up having some sort of arm surgery. The 06 draft was a pretty weak draft. Of those taken in the 1st round, Parmelee's career WAR of 1.0 is 13th best of all 44 players taken in the 1st round.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Nothing has changed? Forget about runs allowed and runs scored, just for a moment.

 

After 48 games last year, the Twins were 16-32, for a .333 winning %.

 

Today we are 20-28, for a .417 winning %. That's a 25% improvement over last year.

 

This doesn't mean the Twins are a good club, and I'm not making that argument. But, if as is often said, your record tells you who you really are, then we are better than last year at this point in the season.

[Mike Sixel]

But if you will not sign FAs, you have to be better than the other teams, a lot better. If your strategy is nearly 100% dependent of drafting well, you need to be better than everyone else. That's part of the issue.

 

counting the starting pitchers there.......2. No wonder they can't pitch at all.

[mcrow]

Nothing has changed? Forget about runs allowed and runs scored, just for a moment.

 

After 48 games last year, the Twins were 16-32, for a .333 winning %.

 

Today we are 20-28, for a .417 winning %. That's a 25% improvement over last year.

 

This doesn't mean the Twins are a good club, and I'm not making that argument. But, if as is often said, your record tells you who you really are, then we are better than last year at this point in the season.

 

Yes, but unless I screwed up the math we're only on pace to win about 2 more games.

[mcrow]

But if you will not sign FAs, you have to be better than the other teams, a lot better. If your strategy is nearly 100% dependent of drafting well, you need to be better than everyone else. That's part of the issue.

 

counting the starting pitchers there.......2. No wonder they can't pitch at all.

 

That's the problem and a good point. The Twins never sign good FAs and are only drafting middle of the road.