Where does Severino Rank after this season, and should we look to move him or hang on?

[Trov]

With the trade deadline coming up and Twins looking as buyers, and maybe dealing from depth of starting pitching or corner outfield guys, and after recent moves last year, our system is getting a little thin.  One name that is not coming up a ton, and in part because he dropped a bit on our prospects lists is Yunior Severino over the years, and never was super high.  Topping out in 2019 at 13 in MLB list, when we first signed him after the Braves had to give him up.  He just dropped from there and seemed like a lost cause prospect.  

Then came this year, where at 23, will be 24 at end of season, he is playing AA, still 1.5 years under the average age.  He has broken out in a huge way.  Really, not on a bad time line age wise, only he was signed as a teenager.  If he was a college kid he would be 1 or 2 years removed from college.  The TD crew has him ranked 17th now, but his numbers are very good.  A little high on K rate, and defense seems not all that great, but not too far off what CES was doing last year. 

Clearly there is a reason he is ranked as low as he has been, similar to CES, who was not ranked high on our list because of high K rate, and poor defense.  Not comparing the two other than why neither were super high level ranked prospects. CES is same age about as Severino.  The last 2 years Severino has shown power that he did not do.  Last year Severino hit 19 HR in 83 across 2 leagues, this year he has 24 in 81 games.  So this HR output is not out of line with what he showed last year, but he has more HR just this year than he did from age 17 to 21 seasons, keeping in mind 1 was 2020 with no games.  He has not played full seasons either.  

Could he be breaking out now that he has his man muscles?  Is he worth holding onto as a possible future bat? Does he have value to be traded or will we need to keep him another year.  I still see him ranking well below many guys in our line up for next couple of years, barring injuries, trades, or complete drop offs in production.  Personally, I think we should be excited, hold onto him for another year, see what we have when he moves up to AAA next year.  He is still young enough that he could make MLB debut at 24 next year, which is plenty young, or he could put up big enough numbers in AAA that we look to trade from depth of infield guys.  Keep in mind, our starting 4 infielders should be locked with Lee knocking on door next year. 

I think too many teams would not have a ton of interest in Severino right now, only because he is not high on ranked lists right now, but I have to imagine he will climb them up a bit next year if he can play a full year, and continue to put up the numbers he has shown. 

[FlyingFinn]

I believe we will keep Severino as his value isn't high enough yet to get the right trade done now. The Twins will have to add him to the 40 man roster over the winter though to keep him as that is when other teams spots will open up and someone will take a chance on him. 

[jorgenswest]

Keep him.

[Linus]

I see the problem as this: he’s another prospect that can hit but is really a dh for a position. This means the bar to clear for his hitting is really high. I hope he clears it. 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Linus said:

I see the problem as this: he’s another prospect that can hit but is really a dh for a position. This means the bar to clear for his hitting is really high. I hope he clears it. 

Part of the Twins All-DH lineup

[Trov]

9 hours ago, Linus said:

I see the problem as this: he’s another prospect that can hit but is really a dh for a position. This means the bar to clear for his hitting is really high. I hope he clears it. 

I do not know how bad his defense is, but he has played 3rd base and 2nd base mostly and his fielding percentage is not great.  I do not know the good cut offs for range factor.  He may be servable, but he does strike me similar to CES when looking at their minor league numbers, but really have never looked much into them together.  I do find it interesting that CES was rising up lists last year, being second year removed from college and hit 32 HR in a full season, across 2 leagues and 3 teams.  Then hit 20 in AAA this year.  Serverino at same age season, had very similar season at the plate.  The main difference is Serverino had not shown that power ever, where CES showed it in college. 

Not saying either will be superstars at majors, there is still a reason neither were top prospects, but CES did climb to 4th in Reds listing.  So far not a strong start to career, but very SSS.  

[nicksaviking]

I don't think other teams evaluate prospects based on prospect lists.

[Trov]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think other teams evaluate prospects based on prospect lists.

I would agree, that teams themselves do not fully, but I do think it gives them ideas of who to look more into, and why are they ranked where they are.  Also, they have fans that look at the lists, and if you deal for a prospect that people talking about the trade say team got a good return, it makes fans feel better about the trade, even if it turns out to not work.  However, if the reports are your team got hosed, and it turns out to be right, then reason for FO to get fired.  So if you go way off the prospects lists, as they are put together by several scouting groups, unless you hit big on the move, people will question it.  

I remember when Twins traded Santana to Mets, we did not ask for their top ranked prospect and many national sports news people talked about how we were fools not to include him, but included Gomez instead, as they were both outfielders.  I do not remember the number one prospect name, mainly because he never made a thing for himself, and Gomez was by far the better player in the long run.  However, if it was other way around where we took the top prospect and left Gomez, the talk would have been we got a bad trade, but unless it leaked we had a chance for Gomez, no one would have said a thing about getting it wrong with Mets, only that we should have made traded with Red Sox or Yankees, as both packages would have been better. 

Should teams make decisions based just on how fans will take it, no.  However, fans pay the bills and if you get them too upset jobs get lost.  

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

I do not know how bad his defense is, but he has played 3rd base and 2nd base mostly and his fielding percentage is not great.  I do not know the good cut offs for range factor.  He may be servable, but he does strike me similar to CES when looking at their minor league numbers, but really have never looked much into them together.  I do find it interesting that CES was rising up lists last year, being second year removed from college and hit 32 HR in a full season, across 2 leagues and 3 teams.  Then hit 20 in AAA this year.  Serverino at same age season, had very similar season at the plate.  The main difference is Serverino had not shown that power ever, where CES showed it in college. 

Not saying either will be superstars at majors, there is still a reason neither were top prospects, but CES did climb to 4th in Reds listing.  So far not a strong start to career, but very SSS.  

He's not good but he's not Julien either, with the glove or the bat.  Fangraphs has them both as 30/30 field though.  I've watched him several times at 3rd and 2nd in the last year or so and serviceable seems the right word for it.  Certainly not great but I haven't seen the consistent issues we see with Julien.  Maybe adding some outfield serviceability would be useful as well. 

As a prospect, being a switch hitter really helps in the Twins scheme.  While the all-DH team idea is intriguing, they really only have room for 1-2 bat only types.  If one is Julien, that kinda leaves Miranda out in the cold with CES and Steer.  I'm seeing the trend where the guys traded away generally have stone hands which helps ease the pain of their success.  The Twins have to invest in flexible players and if Severino can do a lot, from both side of the plate, with lots of options he would fit somewhere on the 40 man.  If some team wants to buy on the hot streak, that's fine too.