Here's How Pablo López Can Get Even Better

[Matthew Trueblood]

The changes that inspired the Twins to extend Pablo López for four years and $73.5 million have been well-documented. He’s added a new pitch, and increased his velocity. There’s further evolution and some vital consolidation of skills and ideas left ahead, though. Let’s explore.

Few pitchers in baseball are more intelligent and eloquent than Pablo Lopez, so maybe the right way to talk about these changes is in terms of Bloom’s Taxonomy. You probably learned about this way back in elementary school. Bloom’s Taxonomy is a framework for learning in which learning progresses through stages, with each stage building upon mastery of the previous one. You can see it above.

It’s meant as a broad concept, but in certain cases, it can be neatly applied to specific endeavors. In the highly intentional, craftsmanlike career of a pitcher like López, the art and science of pitching maps right onto this pyramid. López doesn’t have overwhelming raw stuff, and while he’s always been regarded as a promising player, he didn’t arrive in the majors as anything close to a fully formed ace. He’s had to make stepwise progressions. 

By the time the Twins acquired him, López had already moved through a few of those stages. That’s why he’s now approaching ace status. He’s not only adding pitches, but integrating them in a logically consistent way into his overall arsenal. Simultaneously, he’s improving his mechanics, so that each pitch he throws is more effective in an absolute sense, as well as in relation to one another. He’s identified his basic flaws and weaknesses, and taken all the plausible steps to remediate them. He’s past merely recognizing patterns and options, and has reached the point of comparing and evaluating them, the better to bring the best ones together as a coherent, whole approach.

Famously, López is a part of Sweeper Mania. Every pitcher who has ever thrown a breaking ball has tried to develop a sweeping slider this spring. Somewhere in the wilds of the American South, far from your televisions but always just beyond the range of your mind’s eye, Bert Blyleven has abandoned his hopelessly old-fashipned curveball and is pondering a comeback using a sweeper.

It’s an unfortunate side effect of the particular, technology- and management-driven evolution of the game that every innovation anyone has tried recently seems to have immediately been tried by about 40 others. It takes some of the romance and the mystery out of pitch development, which should be an iterative, pedagogical, individualized process–not an assembly line thing. 

Still and all, López is one of those guys who would be a good candidate for a sweeping slider, even if pitching coaches didn’t suddenly see everyone as a good candidate for a sweeping slider. He throws from a fairly low arm slot, but he’d never had a pitch that moved much to the glove side before adding the sweeper–except his curveball, which was always more of a vertically-shaped offering.

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[John Belinski]

Based on his last 2 games he certainly is not an ace of the staff. Just do not understand why the Twins were so quick to give him a new contract.  There is just no reason for not waiting until several more starts. It seems like the Twins just do  not have much success in giving out big contracts.  Buxton got big contract and he is having a average year at bat or maybe below average. Correa got big contract and he has just not been hitting. They sign Lopez to big contract and his next 2 games he pitched poorly.

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

Based on his last 2 games he certainly is not an ace of the staff. Just do not understand why the Twins were so quick to give him a new contract.  There is just no reason for not waiting until several more starts. It seems like the Twins just do  not have much success in giving out big contracts.  Buxton got big contract and he is having a average year at bat or maybe below average. Correa got big contract and he has just not been hitting. They sign Lopez to big contract and his next 2 games he pitched poorly.

Hate to say it, but it wasn't really that big of a contract. Whether Lopez is actually an "ace" or not is almost immaterial, because that deal is more like the market rate for a #2 or #3 starter these days. Look at what someone like Marcus Stroman or Chris Bassitt is getting on the free agent market these days, and neither one is an "ace".

(BTW, Buxton is sitting on a 143 OPS+ right now and is on pace for a career high in HRs. He seems fine, even without adding anything on defense so far)

2 games are a blip; everything in Lopez's peripherals suggest he's going to be just fine this season. Why evaluate Lopez just on his last 2 games? Why not his first two games? Or his middle two? If he fires 7 shutout against the ChiSox this weekend does the extension go from "bad" to "good"?

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Mat, always knew Pablo had a lot of up side as you explained. As soon it starts to warm up so will Lopez, then he'll gets all his pitches going.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Hate to say it, but it wasn't really that big of a contract. Whether Lopez is actually an "ace" or not is almost immaterial, because that deal is more like the market rate for a #2 or #3 starter these days. Look at what someone like Marcus Stroman or Chris Bassitt is getting on the free agent market these days, and neither one is an "ace".

(BTW, Buxton is sitting on a 143 OPS+ right now and is on pace for a career high in HRs. He seems fine, even without adding anything on defense so far)

2 games are a blip; everything in Lopez's peripherals suggest he's going to be just fine this season. Why evaluate Lopez just on his last 2 games? Why not his first two games? Or his middle two? If he fires 7 shutout against the ChiSox this weekend does the extension go from "bad" to "good"?

All excellent points on López - he might be our Ace but he’s not a Top 15 pitcher in the big leagues. Big deal. His contract is typical for a guy one hopes to earn 15 W’s…….Ryan will probably get a similar offer next year. Gray isn’t an Ace either but I’d offer him $43M for 2 years tomorrow! That’s the market for guys that are proven winners.

Buxton is on pace to hit 39 HR & he’s in the line-up 90% of time v. 46% of the time, his norm for 7 of 8 years of his career.

Taylor - Gordon - Gallo have CF covered.

Correa has a career AVERAGE of around .275……not his April average. He’ll come around similarly to the ‘22 season. Look forward to the contribution!

[Rosterman]

It's going to end up being a better contract than what Berrios wanted, and Lopez (health permitting) should stat out in the same range (or better).

Hummm...what would it take to sign Sonny Gray for three seasons, and would he go for it?