Down With the Same-Handed Changeup

[Cody Pirkl]

Changeups are typically used to equalize opposite-handed hitters for pitchers, but the Twins have recently shown signs of going against the grain. Are the Twins doing themselves a disservice?

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

In 2022, the Twins traded for Jorge Lopez, paying a pretty high price for a reliever in hopes of shoring up the bullpen down the home stretch. They acquired the All-Star right-hander and immediately decided they could make some improvements to a dominant pitcher who at the time had a 1.68 ERA. He posted a 4.37 ERA down the stretch and was a completely different pitcher. There’s a lot of correlation between changeup usage and Lopez’s decline.

Long considered an organization that was fond of sliders nearly to a fault, the Twins seem to have changed their approach in some instances. Despite Jorge Lopez possessing a wipeout slider to pair with his high 90s fastball, the Twins appeared to have a plan when they acquired him to pump up his changeup usage, something we often saw against same-handed hitters. After being acquired by the Twins, Lopez’s changeup usage against right-handed hitters increased from 10.4% in July to 17.9% in August, and then to 19.4% in September. The pitch was fine in August before allowing a .600 batting average and .800 slugging percentage in September.

These are, of course, small samples, but the thought process is questionable considering the mass of historical data saying sliders are more effective against same-handed hitters, especially in Lopez’s case whose breaking ball allowed a .179 average and .393 slugging to righties in 2022. The hope was that the Twins learned their lesson, and Lopez has yet to throw a same-handed changeup so far in 2023.

On Wednesday there was a blip on the radar that needs to be kept from becoming a trend. In the 8th inning against Miami, Griffin Jax relieved Pablo López who had been nearly perfect to that point. After striking out the leadoff hitter, Jax got ahead of Jean Segura 0-2 before throwing consecutive changeups and ultimately allowing a single that later came around to score. 

Jax is a slider-first pitcher whose lack of success with the rest of his repertoire caused a transition from starter to reliever. Last season was incredibly successful as he was allowed to throw his best pitch nearly 50% of the time, allowing a sub .200 batting average and sub .300 slugging. The pitch was even better against right-handed hitters. Instead of going to one of the most dominant pitches in all of baseball against right-handed hitters, Jax went to his worst pitch for that matchup twice in a row and was burned because of it.

Throwing two changeups to a right-handed hitter is a minor detail, but it continues a trend seen at the end of 2022 with Jorge Lopez. In Lopez’s case, such a boost in changeup usage almost had to be a Twins-led choice. It’s possible Jax’s two pitches yesterday were either his own or Jeffers’ decision behind the plate, but either way, it doesn’t look good to allow eventual go-ahead baserunners because of a decision to throw your third-best pitch as a reliever.

For pitchers such as Griffin Jax, pitch usage should be relatively straightforward. Throw the slider a ton while mixing in some fastballs. The changeup was effective against lefties in 2022, but was easily his worst offering against same-handed hitters. It may work to surprise righties on occasion, but the pitch had the worst whiff percentage against right-handed hitters of his entire repertoire in 2022. There’s no reason for Griffin Jax to be fishing for strikeouts against righties with the changeup.

Small percentage points are easy to brush under the rug when it comes to comparing production allowed between pitches, but Wednesday’s outcome shows that not putting the best foot forward statistically can burn the Twins. Jax's changeup that resulted in the infield single was actually a good pitch, but the difference in whiff percentage between his slider and changeup in that situation is massive. In nearly all cases, relievers should be throwing their best pitch when it matters most, especially when it comes to platoon matchups between sliders and changeups. History says there’s no need for deviation.

Hopefully, this was a one-off and not a trend for Jax, who looked well-positioned for an even better 2023 after a fantastic 2022. If the Twins are trying to push same-handed changeups again this season, it’s already time to scrap the idea and stop trying to reinvent the wheel. Otherwise, it may continue to burn them.

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[Melissa]

Interesting take, Cody, but as you say small sample size regarding Jax. A bit early to say he “looked well-positioned” to have another good or even better season after this one unfortunate appearance. 
By the way, I wondered about the small differences in the percentages you offered in the story for J. López’s use of the change up last season compared to the tweet you made last September and quoted here.

[Melissa]

Cody’s comments about pitch selection reminded me that I don’t know nearly as much as I’d like to about how these decisions are made  - especially in the heat of the moment.

For example, the criticism here focuses on Jax throwing two consecutive changeups to Segura on Wednesday. Cody admits the second was a good pitch but doesn’t like the outcome (single and its aftermath).

Was this pitch selection due to direction from the team, as the article suggests about López last summer? Or did the catcher Jeffers notice a weakness in Segura’s reaction to the first change up? Is it possible that pitcher and/or catcher tried to surprise the batter by throwing the pitch twice in a row?

I appreciate how the article points out the trend, though apparently Pablo López’s change up is elite - and - the team has encouraged him to improve and deploy his slider/sweeper more often and strategically, and to good effect his first two starts for the Twins.

I wish we could know more about how this works in practice - but as Cody says - an especially small sample size in Jax’s case.

 

[stringer bell]

IIRC, Jax was up 0-2 when he threw the change ups. Adding another pitch for hitters to be aware of is probably a good thing. Ahead 0-2 (and 1-2) is probably as low-leverage as he will be in. 
 

As for Jorge López, the Twins now have had time to consider what might enhance his pitch mix. He’s looked very good so far.