So...about that pitch to contact philosophy

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think it is a philosophy, I think it is an indication of the quality of pitchers.....

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't think it is a philosophy, I think it is an indication of the quality of pitchers.....

I think it's probably some of both. The pitchers currently manning the Twins staff (and prior staffs) surely influence outcomes, but I think it's also indicative of the Twins philosophy as an organization, particularly the philosophy of "which pitchers do we target in the draft, in trades, in free agency, and in which pitchers get promoted faster through the system?".

[nicksaviking]

I don't think it is a philosophy, I think it is an indication of the quality of pitchers.....

 

Or the quality of the scouting? Or development?

 

This team loves pitchers who limit walks perhaps more than any other team. In recent years they have also seemed to target guys with strikeout potential in the draft. I think we actually need to question why the Twins have such a hard time finding guys who can fit into an acceptable range for both criteria. What are the other clubs identifying that the Twins do not seem capable of spotting themselves?

 

By the way, my two cents is that a walk is not as big of a deal as the Twins seem to think it is. It is certainly preferable to a hit which can move runners over multiple bases and allow for sac hits, though at times it seems the Twins think the walk is the greater of the two evils.

[fairweather]

I've been saying this for years! The Twins organization's philosophy towards pitching is completely flawed. It will generally get good results against average hitting teams but be disastrous in the playoffs should the team reach. I'll go as far as saying that they hate strikeout pitchers because they demand way more money for the same amount of innings. Always looking for the bargain. Never have their eyes on the prize.

[whydidnt]

I don't think it is a philosophy, I think it is an indication of the quality of pitchers.....

I have to agree that the quality of the pitchers is huge factor. But why are all these guys throwing fewer K's than they did before? Is it just the change in leagues? Are they all dealing with arm injuries? Or does it have something to do with the staffs insistence upon putting the ball in play. I don't think you can look back at recent history and say the philosophy doesn't factor in. However, I do agree we have a small sample size and the other factors might help explain things- I just chose to believe it's more about the organization than the rest of this.

[old nurse]

Baker and Garza made it up through the system rather quickly. Slowey progressed not as quickly, but made multiple mid year promotions. Blackburn had a long time in the minors. Note that the higher k/9 pitchers progress more quickly. In recent drafts the high strikeout pitchers with better control would more than likely be gone by the time the Twins drafted. They did draft high strikeout pitchers like Shooter Hunt, Billy Bullock and McCardell. Some did not work out.

In targeting established pitchers in trades you have to give up a lot more for the strikeout pitcher. That would limit what they trade for.

What they sign in free agency is a different thread and doesn't have to derail this one.

[snepp]

The strikeout rate of the Twins starters makes me want to vomit.

 

 

An entire starting five with a sub-5 k/9 rate. That's 1950's-esque.

[jokin]

The strikeout rate of the Twins starters makes me want to vomit.

 

 

An entire starting five with a sub-5 k/9 rate. That's 1950's-esque.

 

I'd "like" your post but I don't like vomit...and at least the 50s was a great era for cars and movies...

[Brock Beauchamp]

The strikeout rate of the Twins starters makes me want to vomit.

 

An entire starting five with a sub-5 k/9 rate. That's 1950's-esque.

 

Now if the Twins could convince the league to let them use a 1918 baseball, we'd really be cookin' with gas.

[Mike Sixel]

Or the quality of the scouting? Or development?

 

This team loves pitchers who limit walks perhaps more than any other team. In recent years they have also seemed to target guys with strikeout potential in the draft. I think we actually need to question why the Twins have such a hard time finding guys who can fit into an acceptable range for both criteria. What are the other clubs identifying that the Twins do not seem capable of spotting themselves?

 

By the way, my two cents is that a walk is not as big of a deal as the Twins seem to think it is. It is certainly preferable to a hit which can move runners over multiple bases and allow for sac hits, though at times it seems the Twins think the walk is the greater of the two evils.

 

 

Given that not one guy in this rotation was developed by the Twins (but hey, anyone that criticized the minor league system is wrong......), I don't think it is necessarily the development. But, it is hard to ignore how bad the team is at drafting, developing, and using SPers at the MLB level. Something is wrong/off. Btw, I don't think it is "we need to draft more college relief pitchers"....

[nicksaviking]

17 clubs have a team K/9 of 7.5 or better. Only 5 have a losing record. 13 Clubs have a K/9 under 7.5. Only four have a winning record.

 

As far as BB/9 goes, the three best teams in this catagory (the Twins are number 1) all have losing records.

 

Full disclosure: the bottom four teams in BB/9 also have losing records, however I think there is enough concerning evidence that strikeouts should be a higher priority than limiting walks.

 

The Twins are probably quite fortunate at the moment not be giving up a ton more homeruns. In an era where more and more batters are becoming three-true-outcome-hitters (HR, BB or K) the Twins are basically taking away the preferred option and the lesser of the two remaining evils. It stands to reason that a team that doesn't strikeout many batters, and makes them get on base by putting the ball in play should be giving up a lot more longballs.

[ThePuck]

last in Ks, least amount of walks allowed.....and 29th in BAA (30th in BAA for the starting pitchers)

[Guest USAFChief]

The strikeout rate of the Twins starters makes me want to vomit.

 

 

An entire starting five with a sub-5 k/9 rate. That's 1950's-esque.

I actually liked the game of baseball more when "three true outcomes" was the rare exception, rather than the rule. It's more fun to me to watch the ball in play than to watch many ABs end without anything happening on the field.

 

Of course, me liking it better doesn't mean it's successful in today's game, or that somehow the Twins can turn the clock back a half century and get everyone else to do the same.

 

And baseball's pretty fun to watch now, too. I just prefer the way it used to be. YMMV.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I actually liked the game of baseball more when "three true outcomes" was the rare exception, rather than the rule. It's more fun to me to watch the ball in play than to watch many ABs end without anything happening on the field.

 

Of course, me liking it better doesn't mean it's successful in today's game, or that somehow the Twins can turn the clock back a half century and get everyone else to do the same.

 

And baseball's pretty fun to watch now, too. I just prefer the way it used to be. YMMV.

 

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a baseball fan who doesn't prefer balls in play over pitch counts and sitting on the perfect pitch.

 

But, alas, the game has evolved.

[snepp]

I actually liked the game of baseball more when "three true outcomes" was the rare exception, rather than the rule. It's more fun to me to watch the ball in play than to watch many ABs end without anything happening on the field.

 

Of course, me liking it better doesn't mean it's successful in today's game, or that somehow the Twins can turn the clock back a half century and get everyone else to do the same.

 

And baseball's pretty fun to watch now, too. I just prefer the way it used to be. YMMV.

 

You won't get any arguments from me, things certainly are more engaging when the ball is in play and the parts are actually moving.

 

This is why I enjoy watching some of the local amateur teams, with the more liberal strikezones at work they're looking to get the ball in play early and often.

[jokin]

last in Ks, least amount of walks allowed.....and 29th in BAA (30th in BAA for the starting pitchers)

 

Don't forget SP ERA. After yesterday, we moved up from #4 to #3 (from the bottom) with a new-look-staff 5.18. While that number is a little less than one run better than last year's April and May numbers, it's still worse than June, July, August, September of 2012, which was when the staff was manned by a string of unproven minor leaguers.

[nicksaviking]

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a baseball fan who doesn't prefer balls in play over pitch counts and sitting on the perfect pitch.

 

But, alas, the game has evolved.

 

Agreed all around. Like everyone else though, if I had to chose between my team losing a fundementally sound game or winning a grip-it and rip-it game, I'll chose the winning outcome.

[nicksaviking]

Did anyone else notice that despite the Twins efforts to get groundball pitchers this year they rank 23rd in GB%? Also of note, of the bottom 15 teams in GB%, 8 have winning records.

 

Is it possible the Twins are succeeding partly due to an over-estimation of the rotation's ability to get groundballs, when in fact groundballs would have been a negative variable?

[snepp]

The starting staff ranks 15th in GB%, while the relievers rank 29th.

[nicksaviking]

And the relievers are the strength of the staff.

[jokin]

The starting staff ranks 15th in GB%, while the relievers rank 29th.

 

To build on the doomsday scenario...

 

Twins RP staff has the 4th highest (worst) ranking in FB% while having the 3rd best number in HR/FB.

 

Coupled with the inevitable RP tired arms from overuse---

 

Regression Warning:

 

"Objects in your rear view mirror are closer than they appear."

[snepp]

Yup, the relief corp is due to start giving up a bunch of homers.

 

 

Swarzak, Burton, Duensing, and Pressley have combined to give up *zero* in their 80 innings, roughly 9 fewer than you would normally expect given the number of flyballs allowed.

[jokin]

Yup, the relief corp is due to start giving up a bunch of homers.

 

 

Swarzak, Burton, Duensing, and Pressley have combined to give up *zero* in their 80 innings, roughly 9 fewer than you would normally expect given the number of flyballs allowed.

 

I know it's early in the day, but I couldn't give you a like in this instance without your accompanying obligatory picture-rama....

 

ie, something such as: SOB scowling traffic cop, wrecked and mangled car, Armageddon nuclear wasteland- we all know it's coming- your regularly pithy pictorializations of our inevitable pain will at least soften the coming blow-up.

[gunnarthor]

Yup, the relief corp is due to start giving up a bunch of homers.

 

 

Swarzak, Burton, Duensing, and Pressley have combined to give up *zero* in their 80 innings, roughly 9 fewer than you would normally expect given the number of flyballs allowed.

 

I agree that there is going to be some regression in the pen but pointing to those 4 guys seems a bit of cherry picking (and it's been 70 innings and I think maybe you should expect 6 HR). Swarzak is really the long reliever so his success isn't that important. He usually only pitches in losses anyway. The other 3 don't tend to give up a lot of homers anyway (Pressly milb stats) and Duensing's been pretty good at limiting home runs as a reliever - .4 HR/9.

 

Our most important bullpen arms don't seem to be too out of whack. But I agree with the central premise that if our starters don't get better, our pen is going to break down.

[drjim]

I actually liked the game of baseball more when "three true outcomes" was the rare exception, rather than the rule. It's more fun to me to watch the ball in play than to watch many ABs end without anything happening on the field.

 

Of course, me liking it better doesn't mean it's successful in today's game, or that somehow the Twins can turn the clock back a half century and get everyone else to do the same.

 

And baseball's pretty fun to watch now, too. I just prefer the way it used to be. YMMV.

 

Reusse has been talking about this the past week - the impact of three outcome hitters on the length of games. Not a positive trend but not sure there is any way to stop the evolution.

[drjim]

I was thinking of this and glad the thread got started. It was mentioned a couple of times but I wonder if this is the Twins doing their own version of Moneyball taking advantage of the market inefficiencies of lesser value for everything but strikeouts.

 

Ks are also preferred and the Twins have been more aggressive in acquiring pitchers that profile that way in the draft or through trades that acquire prospects. However high k guys are much more expensive to acquire via free agency and especially via trade. The solution of course would be to spend more for K guys but the options each offseason are severely limited. The alternative is to exploit the market inefficiency.

 

When Ryan talked about Meyer he said that type of profile is extremely difficult to get once they pass A ball. Barring injury his prospect ranking will reflect that. High K starters so very rarely hit the market you need to do all you can to develop them yourself.

[Mike Sixel]

The evolution is not the only cause of long games.....too many people stepping out of the batter's box and adjusting gloves and checking signs with 2 outs and non one base, and pitchers not just throwing the dang ball......a lot could be done by enforcing the rules (if the umps could just figure out what they are). But, waiting for a good pitch to hit may be lengthening the game, but it is good strategy.

[Mike Sixel]

But the inefficiency is not underpaynig for bad starters, the inefficiency is changing the way you use those bad pitchers to make them more effective. Forcing them into traditional starting roles is not looking for an inefficiency, it is just bad planning and execution.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If you want to move away from the 3 outcome hitters, then I'd say expand the strike zone... or better yet, start calling them the way they used to be called.

 

The reason that will never happen is because too many fans want to see offense. It's sad, because a good pitching duel is often better than any slugfest, but the girls dig the long ball...

[gunnarthor]

The evolution is not the only cause of long games.....too many people stepping out of the batter's box and adjusting gloves and checking signs with 2 outs and non one base, and pitchers not just throwing the dang ball......a lot could be done by enforcing the rules (if the umps could just figure out what they are). But, waiting for a good pitch to hit may be lengthening the game, but it is good strategy.

 

And wearing body armor on the elbows.