So...about that pitch to contact philosophy

[drjim]

But the inefficiency is not underpaynig for bad starters, the inefficiency is changing the way you use those bad pitchers to make them more effective. Forcing them into traditional starting roles is not looking for an inefficiency, it is just bad planning and execution.

 

I don't follow. The three starters acquired all were traditional startera before coming to Minnesota. The inefficiency is acquiring starters that are strong at preventing walks and inducing GBs relative to their overall price.

[drjim]

The evolution is not the only cause of long games.....too many people stepping out of the batter's box and adjusting gloves and checking signs with 2 outs and non one base, and pitchers not just throwing the dang ball......a lot could be done by enforcing the rules (if the umps could just figure out what they are). But, waiting for a good pitch to hit may be lengthening the game, but it is good strategy.

 

Good points.

[silverslugger]

As far as the Twins philosophy and what they are teaching in the minors...

 

In the Eastern League (12 teams) the New Britain staff is currently 7th in strikeouts and 8th in walks.

 

In the Florida State League (12 teams) the Fort Myers Miracle staff is currently 11th in strikeouts and 1st in walks.

 

In the Midwest League (16 teams) the Cedar Rapids Kernels staff is currently 6th in strikouts and 8th in walks.

 

Not much one can glean from that data other than that the Fort Myers results most closely approximate what is going on with the Twins staff.

[gunnarthor]

As far as the Twins philosophy and what they are teaching in the minors...

 

In the Eastern League (12 teams) the New Britain staff is currently 7th in strikeouts and 8th in walks.

 

In the Florida State League (12 teams) the Fort Myers Miracle staff is currently 11th in strikeouts and 1st in walks.

 

In the Midwest League (16 teams) the Cedar Rapids Kernels staff is currently 6th in strikouts and 8th in walks.

 

Not much one can glean from that data other than that the Fort Myers results most closely approximate what is going on with the Twins staff.

 

Yeah, I think there are too many org guys in there to get a good sense of what we're doing.

[70charger]

Yeah, I think there are too many org guys in there to get a good sense of what we're doing.

 

True. Team stats aren't going to mean much when something like 10% of these guys will make it to the Twins.

[Oxtung]

I don't follow. The three starters acquired all were traditional startera before coming to Minnesota. The inefficiency is acquiring starters that are strong at preventing walks and inducing GBs relative to their overall price.

 

Not to drag this too far off topic but how does acquiring below average pitchers on the cheap help the ultimate goal of winning games? It would be one thing to sign the cheap pitchers and then in turn spend big on your lineup so you can outscore opponents. Instead the Twins have just signed cheap pitchers these last couple of years without using the savings to improve the team elsewhere. So they aren't really exploiting anything because by definition exploitation means you're receiving a benefit somehow....

[ThePuck]

Not to drag this too far off topic but how does acquiring below average pitchers on the cheap help the ultimate goal of winning games? It would be one thing to sign the cheap pitchers and then in turn spend big on your lineup so you can outscore opponents. Instead the Twins have just signed cheap pitchers these last couple of years without using the savings to improve the team elsewhere. So they aren't really exploiting anything because by definition exploitation means you're receiving a benefit somehow....

 

Looking to get a rotation of pitchers with no strikeout ability under a total cost of 5M a year. That's the goal :-)

[drjim]

Not to drag this too far off topic but how does acquiring below average pitchers on the cheap help the ultimate goal of winning games? It would be one thing to sign the cheap pitchers and then in turn spend big on your lineup so you can outscore opponents. Instead the Twins have just signed cheap pitchers these last couple of years without using the savings to improve the team elsewhere. So they aren't really exploiting anything because by definition exploitation means you're receiving a benefit somehow....

 

I know you and your list don't agree, but I still contend after the top 3, maybe 4, of this year's free agency crop that it is virtually a crapshoot among the remaining guys. I don't especially care to research the past 6 years of everyone on that list, but I wonder how Pelfrey and Correia compared to the rest in regards to walks allowed and GB rate. I also wonder if the Twins (GASP) scouts may have seen something in those two specifically to make them think they could improve in those two measures.

 

I'm not sure the caliber of pitcher Revere would bring in but I imagine it was not much higher than Worley.

[drjim]

looking to get a rotation of pitchers with no strikeout ability under a total cost of 5m a year. That's the goal :-)

 

Payroll!

[snepp]

I agree that there is going to be some regression in the pen but pointing to those 4 guys seems a bit of cherry picking (and it's been 70 innings and I think maybe you should expect 6 HR). Swarzak is really the long reliever so his success isn't that important. He usually only pitches in losses anyway. The other 3 don't tend to give up a lot of homers anyway (Pressly milb stats) and Duensing's been pretty good at limiting home runs as a reliever - .4 HR/9.

 

I didn't cherry pick anything. It is simply a fact that those four guys have allowed zero home runs thus far when you would have expected quite a few more.

 

It is 70 innings, my maths fail me. I blame Bert.

 

I would still expect ~9 home runs or so, despite my maths, they've allowed in the neighborhood of 90 flyballs between them this year. (this is more a quibble than anything, anywhere from 6-9 would be pretty typical).

 

The Swarzak point is a fair one, but not every one of his innings come in a mop-up role. It's inevitable that he allows a few when they still matter.

[Oxtung]

I know you and your list don't agree, but I still contend after the top 3, maybe 4, of this year's free agency crop that it is virtually a crapshoot among the remaining guys. I don't especially care to research the past 6 years of everyone on that list, but I wonder how Pelfrey and Correia compared to the rest in regards to walks allowed and GB rate. I also wonder if the Twins (GASP) scouts may have seen something in those two specifically to make them think they could improve in those two measures.

 

I'm not sure the caliber of pitcher Revere would bring in but I imagine it was not much higher than Worley.

 

You're missing my point drjim. I wasn't even trying to say they should have signed better pitchers in this case. I was merely saying your supposition wasn't supported. In order for the Twins to exploit a market inefficiency they had to receive some benefit. An example would be if they had gone out and spent big on a bat or two to really improve the offense because they saved so much money with their pitching strategy. If you're claiming exploitation what advantage have the Twins received?

[jokin]

 

 

 

The Swarzak point is a fair one, but not every one of his innings come in a mop-up role. It's inevitable that he allows a few when they still matter.

 

Swarzak has appeared in 3 Twins wins and suffered the loss in a 4th potential win. That would be 4 out of 10 appearances.

 

Leverage situations and Swarzak? Glad you asked. This year he's been in Hi/Med Lev. situations 30.2% of the time. His bOPS in High Leverage is .833 and .888 for Medium Leverage, versus overall .645, so his "positive" numbers are heavily greased.

 

For his career he's given up 14 of his 36 HRs allowed in High/Medium Lev. situations- a 39% rate. With his career HR/FB being nearly 10% and even applying his artificially low FB% in 2013, he still is about 3 HRs behind what would be "normal" for him.

 

HRs? For his career, he has given up 14 of 36 HRs in High and Medium Leverage, 38.9%.

[Kobs]

I was thinking of this and glad the thread got started. It was mentioned a couple of times but I wonder if this is the Twins doing their own version of Moneyball taking advantage of the market inefficiencies of lesser value for everything but strikeouts.

 

Buying up what no one else wants is not exploiting an inefficiency. Certainly there is value in having pitchers that don't give up walks, but only if that tendency is paired with an average or below hit rate. If you could get a WHIP of about 1.20 by adding a H/9 of 10 to a BB/9 of 2, you'd probably be decent. That doesn't seem to be happening. H/9, not that surprisingly, is going up with the drop in BB/9.

[TheLeviathan]

My market inefficiency quote was 630% snark. Give or take.

[snepp]

That low? Don't undersell yourself.

[gunnarthor]

You're missing my point drjim. I wasn't even trying to say they should have signed better pitchers in this case. I was merely saying your supposition wasn't supported. In order for the Twins to exploit a market inefficiency they had to receive some benefit. An example would be if they had gone out and spent big on a bat or two to really improve the offense because they saved so much money with their pitching strategy. If you're claiming exploitation what advantage have the Twins received?

 

Isn't Correia giving the team some tangible benefit right now? He's worth about 1.3 WAR already (2.1 WAR more than Brandon McCarthy) and he's eating innings to protect the pen and allowing the young pitchers in the minors time to develop while not hurting the Twins longterm plans.

[Oxtung]

Isn't Correia giving the team some tangible benefit right now? He's worth about 1.3 WAR already (2.1 WAR more than Brandon McCarthy) and he's eating innings to protect the pen and allowing the young pitchers in the minors time to develop while not hurting the Twins longterm plans.

 

Ahh...another supporter of the "Terry Ryan should have factored 2013 final pitching statistics into his 2012 free agent offers" I see.

[gunnarthor]

Ahh...another supporter of the "Terry Ryan should have factored 2013 final pitching statistics into his 2012 free agent offers" I see.

 

1) That's a bit much to quote. Something Tobias would do.

2) What final stats are being used?

[Oxtung]

1) That's a bit much to quote. Something Tobias would do.

2) What final stats are being used?

 

Good thing you caught the important points in my post!

[kab21]

Is anyone anywhere happy about the complete lack of k's? I don't understand how this thread made it to 4 pages this fast when everyone agrees.

[snepp]

Is anyone anywhere happy about the complete lack of k's? I don't understand how this thread made it to 4 pages this fast when everyone agrees.

 

 

http://www.billdamon.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Bull-Durham-mv04.jpg