Twins Tidbit: Bats Go Cold in August

[TwinsData]

The Twins lineup has seemingly gone ice cold in August. But who's to blame? And is this spell the result of a season-long decline or a fall off a cliff? Let's answer those questions by looking at month-to-month win probability added for the Twins top hitters.

 

The above graph plots the win probability added by month for the Twins top 11 hitters in plate appearances. Because hitting with runners in scoring position and hitting in late-and-close situations is so crucial for winning games, the win probability measure is sensitive to performance in those situations. As a result, the graph reveals what we've all sensed: the lineup has stunk in August. 

• Only three of these hitters have a significantly positive WPA thus far in August, meaning they helped more than they hurt the Twins chances of winning: Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, and Jose Miranda.
• Only two of these hitters have a higher WPA in August than in July: Correa and Gilberto Celestino (barely).
• Byron Buxton and Max Kepler completely cratered in August. Injuries likely played a large part, but silver linings count for little in the standings. And for Kepler, a terrible August was the culmination of a season-long decline.
• Even Jorge Polanco and Arraez, who had each put up positive WPA's in the previous three and four months respectively, dipped to near zero impact in August.

It can only go up from here, right? Right?

 

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[LA Vikes Fan]

Wow, that’s ugly. And it explains a lot. Maybe Correa is getting back on track with his 2 hits tonight. Also, I’m a little surprised about Gordon. I thought he was doing better than that. 

[Reptevia]

So basically, Urshela=Correa, offensively. 

[dxpavelka]

Advanced analytics are an excellent way of predicting the past.

[SanoMustGo]

Let's hope they can start scoring runs, and soon.