Byron Buxton and the Trout timeline

[kab21]

I have been getting it. I have only claimed that Buxton has a power potential higher than his current rating....

 

That's not at all what you have said in this thread nor what I have disagreed with. You have directly said that his power tool is comparable to Justin Upton's. that is false.

[amjgt]

Walk off Grand Slam, down 3, it LITERALLY doesn't get any better than that.

[jokin]

That's not at all what you have said in this thread nor what I have disagreed with. You have directly said that his power tool is comparable to Justin Upton's. that is false.

 

I most certainly have not said that his power tool is comparable to JUPs. I said that it appears that while he was being compared to BUP, it should also have been mentioned that he has some potential to have a power potential to hit with more power, ala JUP, but not exactly like JUP ( as Casey Stengel said, you could look it up). Peter Gammons concurs. I'll trust his opinion that I'm on to something, that maybe there is evidence that Buck's power rating among the experts is on the rise. (Well, that and his 450 foot Grand Slam in the bottom of the 9th tonight.)

[jokin]

Here it is!

[video=youtube_share;ESFtlpmPxT4]

 

Thanks, 30whales! I detected a lot of bat speed, turning on a fastball reportedly clocked at 98. That ball was out of the park in what seemed like less than a second!

 

Can't wait for the weekend.

[jokin]

Reverse angle of the HR. Much louder, watch the bat speed.

 

[amjgt]

I know I wasn't the only one that was nervous when he was jumping on home.

[Steven Buhr]

I know I wasn't the only one that was nervous when he was jumping on home.

 

I admit I had that thought when I saw him jump at home. Then again, I was just happy his teammates waited at home for him this time and the runners all crossed home ahead of him instead of having everyone tackle him as he rounded second base the way they did for Travis Harrison's grand slam "single" a couple weeks back. Lesson well learned, apparently.

[cmathewson]

That's not at all what you have said in this thread nor what I have disagreed with. You have directly said that his power tool is comparable to Justin Upton's. that is false.

 

Are these claims binary? No? I didn't think so. To qualify as being comparable to JUP, he needs to be "somewhat comparable", not "exactly comparable."

[Turd Furgeson]

Let's be clear, Justin Upton has 70-80 power. There may be more that would firmly put him in the 80 camp than the 70 camp.

 

Byron Buxton likely has 55-65 power. At least that would be the range I would expect most scouts to put him in. Still above average, to potentially well above average and that's really good for someone who profiles as an elite center field defender, base runner etc.

[Siehbiscuit]

One thing that separates both Upton brothers right now from Buxton is the ability to hit for average. Justin may have 70's power but his low contact rate might translate to only 35-40 homers in a good season (See Adam Dunn, Giancarlo Stanton).

 

Buxton may only be a 50's power guy, but his contact rate is better than Justin Upton's so Buxton to be in the 30's isn't at all out of the question. The # of homeruns isn't the best way to figure who has the best "tool" or most "power potential." Think Mike Trout's season a year ago. I would say that Justin Upton has a higher "power" tool than Mike Trout. But Trout may hit more homers than him some years, because he will make solid contact more often. Upton's homers may even travel farther, but a HR is still a HR.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that Buxton has the potential to have a Barry Bonds (pre-'roids) or Ken Griffey Jr type of career based on his skill set and projection. BJ Upton is SKINNY and has never filled out (equals bad comparison, IMO). Buxton is bigger NOW. Justin Upton and Miguel Sano are closer in comparison in my opinion than JUpton and Buxton.

 

Buxton can and will fill out (and get his man muscles) and be a regular 30-30 guy soon.

 

...and please don't say that I am predicting multiple MVP's and a HOF career for Buxton. Only he has that potential.

[Turd Furgeson]

Jason Parks had this to say recently:

 

Peter (Georgia): Back on Buxton, if all things come to fruition, what kind of power/speed numbers are we talking about here? Could he reach Mike Trout levels?

Jason Parks: Mike Trout is a freak and I'm hesitant to put other players in his universe, but Buxton has a crazy ceiling and I think the speed numbers could be there. I think the power will develop, but I don't see him as a 30+ HR type.

 

Peter (Georgia): In fairness not many ppl threw 30Hr projections on Trout either, so Buxton is wait and see, but would you call the power average to plus now?

Jason Parks: I wouldn't. I'd say plus potential [key word] is possible, and maybe more as he finds his body and his swing.

Not that Parks is the ultimate authority on this issue of course, but he seems to echo the same sentiments that I have been.

[cmb0252]

From Matt Eddy's chat over at baseball America:

 

 

• Reportedly Buxton's walk off grand slam last night went 450 feet. While Buxton only has 6 HRs most of them have been no doubters. What is his future power potential?
  

Matt Eddy: Substantial. Think of all the five-tool big league center fielders playing right now. He can be one of them in time. You don't need to apologize for Buxton having "just" six homers. He's got 20 extra-bats hits in 38 games as a middle-diamond teen in the Midwest League (.594). That's amazing.

 

BA gave Buxton a 60 grade for power which should be 15-20 HRs for a CFer. Buxton is still raw and once he fills out more could end up having more power but comparing his power upside to Upton's is a little much for my blood. At age 24 Upton already has 121 HRs, 13 on the year, and a 31 HR campaign when he was 22. Personally I can see JUp having at least one 35+ HR season, if not multiple, if he can stay healthy. As I say this, I could also see Buxton having a few years in the mid 20's for HRs.

 

Power wise Upton >Buxton. But, if Buxton keeps developing he should end up better than Upton in every other category.

 

[jokin]

Jason Parks had this to say recently:

 

Peter (Georgia): Back on Buxton, if all things come to fruition, what kind of power/speed numbers are we talking about here? Could he reach Mike Trout levels?

Jason Parks: Mike Trout is a freak and I'm hesitant to put other players in his universe, but Buxton has a crazy ceiling and I think the speed numbers could be there. I think the power will develop, but I don't see him as a 30+ HR type.

 

Peter (Georgia): In fairness not many ppl threw 30Hr projections on Trout either, so Buxton is wait and see, but would you call the power average to plus now?

Jason Parks: I wouldn't. I'd say plus potential [key word] is possible, and maybe more as he finds his body and his swing.

Not that Parks is the ultimate authority on this issue of course, but he seems to echo the same sentiments that I have been.

 

I think we're all coming to an agreement. Myself and others on this thread have been saying "plus potential" all along. Buxton's 450 HR last night doesn't exactly hurt our case. I wonder if Jason Parks likes "maybe more", "Buxton's body and his swing" and his power potential after last night's blast?

[jokin]

One thing that separates both Upton brothers right now from Buxton is the ability to hit for average. Justin may have 70's power but his low contact rate might translate to only 35-40 homers in a good season (See Adam Dunn, Giancarlo Stanton).

 

Buxton may only be a 50's power guy, but his contact rate is better than Justin Upton's so Buxton to be in the 30's isn't at all out of the question. The # of homeruns isn't the best way to figure who has the best "tool" or most "power potential." Think Mike Trout's season a year ago. I would say that Justin Upton has a higher "power" tool than Mike Trout. But Trout may hit more homers than him some years, because he will make solid contact more often. Upton's homers may even travel farther, but a HR is still a HR.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that Buxton has the potential to have a Barry Bonds (pre-'roids) or Ken Griffey Jr type of career based on his skill set and projection. BJ Upton is SKINNY and has never filled out (equals bad comparison, IMO). Buxton is bigger NOW. Justin Upton and Miguel Sano are closer in comparison in my opinion than JUpton and Buxton.

 

Buxton can and will fill out (and get his man muscles) and be a regular 30-30 guy soon.

 

...and please don't say that I am predicting multiple MVP's and a HOF career for Buxton. Only he has that potential.

 

Excellent post and well-stated. It is all about the potential. Buxton is already hitting tape-measure HRs, for even his power-potential at this point, the sky is the limit.

[Turd Furgeson]

I think we're all coming to an agreement. Myself and others on this thread have been saying "plus potential" all along. Buxton's 450 HR last night doesn't exactly hurt our case. I wonder if Jason Parks likes "maybe more", "Buxton's body and his swing" and his power potential after last night's blast?

 

This is what we've been arguing with against,

 

If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers.

 

What is the best feature of Justin Upton? His plus plus power. He had it going into the minors when he was drafted. Byron Buxton does not have plus plus power. He could possibly have plus power maybe more if the stars align. Do you see the difference?

[jokin]

This is what we've been arguing with against,

 

 

 

What is the best feature of Justin Upton? His plus plus power. He had it going into the minors when he was drafted. Byron Buxton does not have plus plus power. He could possibly have plus power maybe more if the stars align. Do you see the difference?

 

Again, you're picking needless nits for what reason? I of course, never said that Buxton has "plus plus power". Rather than quoting an isolated statement, why not acknowledge that this entire discussion from the onset has been couched in "potential", "possiblys" and "maybes". The reassessment upgrades of Buxton's power potential by the professional national experts are being constantly rewritten this spring, as Buxton's stars appear to be aligning. All that this side of the debate has said is that Buxton's power potential needed to be taken more into consideration than was the previous general perception ("Buxton is BJ"), line drive hitters can still be home run hitters, and that 30/30 seasons were definitely within his reach.

[cmathewson]

I don't care about how guys are rated. But it is odd that you say Upton had 80 power as a 19 year old and Buxton only has 70 speed. The only 80 power guy I've seen in the last few years is Sano, and Upton did not have Sano's power when he was 19. Meanwhile, if any player has 80 speed, it's Buxton. Several scouts have said he's the fastest player they've ever seen.

[Mike Sixel]

Back to the timeline......just did a quick search....of last year's top 10 WAR position players:

 

2 came up at 23

3 came up at 22

1 at 21

3 at 20

1 at 19

 

So, it would not be rushing him, if he's truly elite, to have him up here in 2 years.....is he on that pace? I looked because I had previously read online that elite player come up earlier than average players.....

[jokin]

I don't care about how guys are rated. But it is odd that you say Upton had 80 power as a 19 year old and Buxton only has 70 speed. The only 80 power guy I've seen in the last few years is Sano, and Upton did not have Sano's power when he was 19. Meanwhile, if any player has 80 speed, it's Buxton. Several scouts have said he's the fastest player they've ever seen.

 

And Tom Kelly, as well, who never talks in sterling absolutes about anybody.

[Turd Furgeson]

I don't care about how guys are rated. But it is odd that you say Upton had 80 power as a 19 year old and Buxton only has 70 speed. The only 80 power guy I've seen in the last few years is Sano, and Upton did not have Sano's power when he was 19. Meanwhile, if any player has 80 speed, it's Buxton. Several scouts have said he's the fastest player they've ever seen.

 

Who said that Buxton has 70 speed? I know I did not. Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though. They usually wait to see a player multiple times, listen to scouting reports or what have you before putting an 80 on a tool. I remember it took awhile before Sano was considered to have 80 power.

 

That said, Gallo probably has 80 power right now, along with Sano. Harper most definitely had 80 power. Giancarlo Stanton had 80 power.

 

Also, Buxton is not the fastest player in the minors. That would be Billy Hamilton. The guy who stole 155 bases last year.

[jokin]

Back to the timeline......just did a quick search....of last year's top 10 WAR position players:

 

2 came up at 23

3 came up at 22

1 at 21

3 at 20

1 at 19

 

So, it would not be rushing him, if he's truly elite, to have him up here in 2 years.....is he on that pace? I looked because I had previously read online that elite player come up earlier than average players.....

 

I brought up Machado's career minor league numbers preceding his call-up at age 20. They of course, are less than "break down the door", overwhelming. Seth brought up a legitimately good point that, of course, there are other reasons besides ridiculous Trout-like stat lines for fast-tracking a prospect tabbed as "elite".

 

Unfortunately, I could only come to the sneaking suspicion that were the Orioles and Twins situations exactly reversed, that Machado, with his just-OK numbers at the A level, would have played not 39 games in Low A before his promotion to A+, but likely a whole season there. And that his subsequent much worse numbers at A+, would have also merited another full year at Fort Myers- so that this year, what would have been his 4th year in the minors, he would be playing a combined year of A+ and AA, instead of starting at 3B for a playoff-contending team.

[jokin]

Who said that Buxton has 70 speed? I know I did not.

Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though. They usually wait to see a player

multiple times, listen to scouting reports or what have you before putting an 80 on a tool. I remember it took awhile before Sano was considered to have 80 power.

 

That said, Gallo probably has 80 power right now, along with Sano. Harper most definitely had 80 power. Giancarlo Stanton had 80 power.

 

Also, Buxton is not the fastest player in the minors. That would be Billy Hamilton. The guy who stole 155 bases last year.

 

And John Sickels stated that Buxton's speed compared favorably with Hamilton. (I'm not saying that Buck will steal 155 bases!) Sickels:

" I literally said "holy ****" out loud. There are reports that he's been timed at 3.70 down the first base line and I completely believe it. He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton."

 

Scouts generally err on the side of caution when rating players, though.

 

Much like scouts erring on the side of caution with Buxton's power potential.

[Turd Furgeson]

And John Sickels stated that Buxton's speed compared favorably to Hamilton. (I'm not saying that Buck will steal 155 bases!)

 

Not exactly.

 

"He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton." John Sickels

 

I mean, he's essentially said he has 80 speed which is amazing enough. I've just heard plenty say that Billy Hamilton is something beyond 80 speed. Though there isn't an official numbering system for it, it's somewhere beyond that.

[jokin]

Not exactly.

 

"He's almost as fast as Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton." John Sickels

 

I mean, he's essentially said he has 80 speed which is amazing enough. I've just heard plenty say that Billy Hamilton is something beyond 80 speed. Though there isn't an official numbering system for it, it's somewhere beyond that.

 

I supplied the entire quote in my post. Being mentioned in the same paragraph with All- World speedster Hamilton, couched in drop-jaw epithet verbal amazement, implies that Buxton's speed is pretty special, too.

[cmathewson]

Well, it's good to see Buxton mentioned in the same discussions as Hamilton, Trout, and Harper. I doubt he has any one tool to equal their best tools, except perhaps batting eye. But his combination of tools puts him in an elite class.

 

As to the original question, I'd be surprised if he is not in the majors before age 22. He could jump two levels this year alone. Worst case, he starts his age 20 year in AA.

[Turd Furgeson]

You did, but you edited your post after I already posted my reply. That wasn't originally in there.

 

That said, of course it's special, it's a friggin 70-80 tool! That would make him faster than the vast majority of the league.

[cmb0252]

This is one great conversation and both sides have done a great job arguing their sides. One thing I would like to note is that the scouts grading system has some gray areas. An example below:

 

A 80 grade fastball for a RHP isn't the same as a 80 grade fastball for a LHP. LHP tend to throw slower than RHP but don't tell the Red's Chapman this. If a RHP throws a 100 mph fastball and a lefty throws a 98 mph fastball even though the speed is 2 mph different they get the same grade. Movement also can affect a fastball grade.

 

I bring this up because while both Hamilton and Buxton have 80 speed I have read they are a little different. Hamilton has better burst which results in more stolen bases while Buxton has better top end speed which should lead to more extra base hits. Dont get me wrong, to have 80 speed they both have ridiculous top speed/burst, but there speed has been noted as different.

[jokin]

This is one great conversation and both sides have done a great job arguing their sides. One thing I would like to note is that the scouts grading system has some gray areas. An example below:

 

A 80 grade fastball for a RHP isn't the same as a 80 grade fastball for a LHP. LHP tend to throw slower than RHP but don't tell the Red's Chapman this. If a RHP throws a 100 mph fastball and a lefty throws a 98 mph fastball even though the speed is 2 mph different they get the same grade. Movement also can affect a fastball grade.

 

I bring this up because while both Hamilton and Buxton have 80 speed I have read they are a little different. Hamilton has better burst which results in more stolen bases while Buxton has better top end speed which should lead to more extra base hits. Dont get me wrong, to have 80 speed they both have ridiculous top speed/burst, but there speed has been noted as different.

 

And, in terms of baserunning, while Hamilton has mastered the stolen base (no doubt due in no small part due to his first step quickness), Buxton is still learning the finer points of base stealing, ie which pitch to go on, lead establishment, etc. (CS in 7 of 23 attempts, he's stealing at a career 72.9%, with 69.6% at Class A ball, not too bad, but not great.... while Hamilton is 82.5% for his career, with a 83.7% rate at Class A ball.)

 

Regardless, either player is going to track down just about everything hit their way in CF (if that's where Hamilton ends up- that's where the Reds have him this year).

[jokin]

Though Buck has slowed down recently from his torrid start, long-term he remains 1 or 1A on Twins prospects lists and still projects to be top-ten in all of baseball in the midseason rankings...Thanks to HOFer Paul Molitor for adding further expert support and opinion to the notion that Buxton has legitimate projection as a 30/30 guy. Here's the ESPN1500 audio link:

 

Paul Molitor says Byron Buxton can be a 30/30 player

[diehardtwinsfan]

Back to the timeline......just did a quick search....of last year's top 10 WAR position players:

 

2 came up at 23

3 came up at 22

1 at 21

3 at 20

1 at 19

 

So, it would not be rushing him, if he's truly elite, to have him up here in 2 years.....is he on that pace? I looked because I had previously read online that elite player come up earlier than average players.....

 

I'm not sure why you needed to look up that elite players tend to come up earlier than average players. That's the nature of the game.

 

That said, these stats are complete cherry picking. We don't know yet if Buxton will be elite. You are simply pointing out that today's elite players came up at a young age, but you are ignoring the failure of every player that came up at a young age that isn't elite... The fact that the 10 best position players were 23 or under when they arrived says absolutely nothing about whether or not Buxton should be on the Trout timeline or not.