Buyer Beware: Reviewing the Twins’ Recent Reliever Trades

[Major League Ready]

Anyone know what the deal is with Alcala?  

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am confused by this, Fox sports has the twins tied for 4th (Blue Jays and Cubs) with the most blown saves (17), behind the Rays, Braves and Red Sox.

And 20th with 19 saves

and the tied for 3rd with 57 holds (Astros)

The holds being high isn't a huge surprise since you get quite a few chances when the team is good and the bullpen is required to pitch more innings, The Twins are 25th in Quality stars (22), one behind Detroit, and one ahead of Baltimore and the Royals.

"https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/team-stats?category=pitching&season=2022&seasonType=reg"

I sorted Fangraphs' team data from a couple days ago. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=11,a

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Anyone know what the deal is with Alcala?  

No sign of return from injured list Alcala (elbow) remains in a holding pattern and hasn't made progress after being shut down once again June 1 with tightness in his pitching elbow, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports...

Impact There have been conflicting reports on whether Alcala is set to throw again or has been shut down for an extended period. Either way, it doesn't sound like he has a chance to return any time soon. Alcala has been on the injured list since April 12 with right elbow inflammation. He made a rehab appearance June 1 but was later shut down again with tightness in his pitching elbow.

4 DAYS AGO • ROTOWIRE

[old nurse]

Saves, holds, and blown saves are really not indicative of much in regards to the bullpen. The team has to have a lead for any of them. Without a decent rotation the counting stats are less likely to happen. If the offense clicked there are no counting stats. If the offense isn’t there the defense could let in a run, now you have a blown save

[Mike Sixel]

We're looking at sample sizes of three now? Maybe look at every RP trade over the last five years across baseball for useful data. 

The site is filled with people saying the team has too many players for the 40 man next year, and people don't want to trade anyone? I get that some feel this team will be better next year. But they probably won't have CC. They won't have a built in 4.5 game lead. If the team doesn't add players when leading the division, why would anyone think they would next year? It would be a terrible decision not to try to get better.

Any news on Maeda?

[PatPfund]

On 7/10/2022 at 11:52 PM, bean5302 said:

Matt Capps was a huge upgrade over Jon Rauch and the Twins acquired Matt Capps for the playoffs, not necessarily for the following year. Wilson Ramos was the Twins' 3rd or 4th ranked prospect and he was on some of the top 100 lists to begin the year, but by 2011, Ramos was about the #5 (or lower) prospect for the Nationals.

Ramos has managed a 15 WAR career over 11 years since and is a free agent recovering from his 3rd ACL repair. People on this site act like Ramos was Buster Posey or something...

Wilson Ramos was a two-time All Star, and Silver Slugger winner at a position the Twins were about to be in dire need of filling. 

And then you make my point precisely. Capps (who was a waiver claim months before, and would be out of baseball not too long afterward) was acquired for the playoffs instead of the starter the Twins needed (Ramos originally was the key piece in a Cole Hamels trade). Without the needed starter, the Twins never had a lead in the playoffs for Capps to protect, and he was useless. In the playoffs. (Through no fault of his own.) This team needs a very good starter first. Only then will the 'pen matter.

[PatPfund]

On 7/10/2022 at 7:42 PM, tony&rodney said:

The New York Yankees traded a reliever for a top prospect, Gleybar Torres. The Twins don't have anyone who is in the category that Torres was at that time. The Cubs would do that trade for that little relief pitcher they acquired every single time. There wasn't any guarantee then and there aren't any now either. The Twins need some (two) relievers. Falvey isn't going to trade Lewis or anyone on the MLB roster. A trade should be accomplished.

I'll take Chapman as the exception that proves the rule.

The Cubs had one of the best teams in baseball with a World Series winning manager already in place, but were missing that one piece. The Yankees were willing since they weren't winning it that year, and they had the relationship to get Chapman right back in free agency. Chapman was the most dominating arm in the game.

So if you want to name the most dominating reliever in baseball, and you think we are only one piece away from winning it all (which I know isn't true from your posts including the one quoted), and you believe we have a post-season wizard managing the Twins (which I also suspect might not be true), then, yeah. Send a top prospect to make your championship team even better.

But I have seen nobody name an arm dominating the game the way Chapman did, I think our manager is okay, but not great, I would say we are a decent team, but not a great one, and I don't think our rotation is anything more than solid; certainly not good enough to average 5 innings per start against a mediocre Texas team, let alone playoff competition. So sending top prospects for a reliever is goofy IMO. At all times, but especially for this team.

[bean5302]

56 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Wilson Ramos was a two-time All Star, and Silver Slugger winner at a position the Twins were about to be in dire need of filling. 

And then you make my point precisely. Capps (who was a waiver claim months before, and would be out of baseball not too long afterward) was acquired for the playoffs instead of the starter the Twins needed (Ramos originally was the key piece in a Cole Hamels trade). Without the needed starter, the Twins never had a lead in the playoffs for Capps to protect, and he was useless. In the playoffs. (Through no fault of his own.) This team needs a very good starter first. Only then will the 'pen matter.

Yep. This is what I'm talking about. Ramos the great... More like Ramos had 2 good seasons in his career and was hurt constantly, otherwise.

Ramos vs. Top Twins Catcher
2011 = 4.4 vs. 2.1
2012 = 0.5 vs. 4.6
2013 = 2.0 vs. 5.2
2014 = 1.0 vs. -0.1
2015 = -0.5 vs. -1.0
2016 = 3.6 vs. 0.0
Total = 11.0 Ramos vs. 10.8 Twins Catchers

So Ramos was worth 0.2 fWAR across the 6 years of team control vs. Joe Mauer and Kurt Suzuki. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I'll take Chapman as the exception that proves the rule.

The Cubs had one of the best teams in baseball with a World Series winning manager already in place, but were missing that one piece. The Yankees were willing since they weren't winning it that year, and they had the relationship to get Chapman right back in free agency. Chapman was the most dominating arm in the game.

So if you want to name the most dominating reliever in baseball, and you think we are only one piece away from winning it all (which I know isn't true from your posts including the one quoted), and you believe we have a post-season wizard managing the Twins (which I also suspect might not be true), then, yeah. Send a top prospect to make your championship team even better.

But I have seen nobody name an arm dominating the game the way Chapman did, I think our manager is okay, but not great, I would say we are a decent team, but not a great one, and I don't think our rotation is anything more than solid; certainly not good enough to average 5 innings per start against a mediocre Texas team, let alone playoff competition. So sending top prospects for a reliever is goofy IMO. At all times, but especially for this team.

The thing is that many folks on TD, yourself included, fear the loss of the "Pipeline" or "All of the teams best prospects" or just losing prospects in general. The Twins are not going to trade MLB players or the injured Lewis. This leaves a host of promising but unproven prospects, none of which rate among the top 100 in the game. The Twins can and should trade any 2-5 minor league players to acquire players to help this year. I cannot think of any player from the Twins system, other than Emmanuel Rodriguez, who should be protected. 

All of this also understands that Derek Falvey has not made any trades to acquire a player in season worth mentioning and we can all agree that he is not going to trade 4-7 of the teams top 10 prospects. He is likely to be open to some moves this July given the youth at the MLB level. Falvey needs to act, it is that simple.

As far as winning goes, we should agree that this team is more fun than last year's squad. Nothing is guaranteed in the postseason and Twins fans need to get over/drink away their angst of the record losing streak in October. Having been a Twins fan since 1961, my preference is for competitive teams that get a shot as opposed to the never ending rebuilding models. I would rather watch the Twins lose again in the playoffs than watch them lose 90-110 games. They have a chance but need a couple of players to be better. If Canterino can replicate Duran in his initiation to MLB in late July, I'm good with that too. The current pitchers aren't the answer though which means it is Falvey Time.