Minnesota’s Return for Berrios Continues to Look Better

[Nine of twelve]

On 6/30/2022 at 2:08 PM, Ted Schwerzler said:

It's not a declaration either way, but the Twins got a TON of value at the time, and that's where you assess a trade for prospects.

Disagree. You assess any and every trade by comparing the total outlay and the total return. And we don't know the total outlay or total return until the players involved retire, are released, or leave in free agency. Or are traded, in which case the outlay and return in those trades have to be factored in.

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Yankees are 28-16 (103 win pace) when Kyle Higashioka appears in the game.  Should the Twins give up whatever it takes to get him?

NIce one. I'll bet you fooled some people. He's a detriment to their pitching staff. 28-16 in games when he appears is far worse than the Yankees' record in games in which he doesn't appear (31-7, 132 win pace).

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.  Didn't.

You obviously don't understand.  This is not a woulda situation it's a recap of the options because there are multiple possible scenarios where Berrios could still be part of this team.  The recap illustrates that there is not a scenario where keeping Berrios would have made sense given his current level of performance.  Obviously, the timeframe involved is the next 6 1/2 years so we won't know definitely until his contract has elapsed.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Disagree. You assess any and every trade by comparing the total outlay and the total return. And we don't know the total outlay or total return until the players involved retire, are released, or leave in free agency. Or are traded, in which case the outlay and return in those trades have to be factored in.

So, you're saying that sports media should quit doing the assessment of how well teams do in trades until years later when it's all played out.  No doubt those hundreds/thousands of conversations are speculative just like thousands of preseason conversations about which team will win contend.  However, it's perfectly reasonable to value the return based on what is known at the time.  Was it a top 10 prospect or an unknown?  We can measure the relative return.  I think any reasonable person understands the judgment is based on conjecture.

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You obviously don't understand.  This is not a woulda situation it's a recap of the options because there are multiple possible scenarios where Berrios could still be part of this team.  The recap illustrates that there is not a scenario where keeping Berrios would have made sense given his current level of performance.  Obviously, the timeframe involved is the next 6 1/2 years so we won't know definitely until his contract has elapsed.  

half a season does not a season make.  p.s.  Might want to take a look at his last two starts as well.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 7/5/2022 at 8:14 AM, Trov said:

Look at Corey Kluber, a guy that was never even a prospect really, it was not until he was 28 at the majors that he became a Cy young level pitcher.  28 to 32 he either won or got Cy Young votes, guess Cleveland should have sent him packing well before that because he was not going to be good. 

Very true, he was a 4th round pick out of Stetson by San Diego and was traded to Cleveland in 2010 (he was in AA), Cleveland had him in the majors the next season (age 25 3 games), 12 games in 2012, and he kind of broke out in 2103 with a 11-5 record and 3.85 ERA, then was amazing for 5 years.

[Cap'n Piranha]

19 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I'm assuming you've seen us play.  That should answer you question.

I honestly have no idea what you are saying here.

[Cap'n Piranha]

19 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

What you seem to be saying is that Berrios' team wins more games because they are a better team.  Hard to be the better team when you best players are playing for the other guys. Bottom line is that as this point in time we have gotten NOTHING in return for Berrios.  Can't call that a win.  In the  future.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  That's probably why they'll continue to play the games.

No, what he's saying is that Toronto has been winning the games Berrios starts DESPITE Berrios, not BECAUSE of him.  It's unfathomable to me that this is getting lost.  A team's record in games a pitcher starts is a potentially meaningful metric for that pitcher, but also a potentially meaningless metric for that pitcher.  Jose Berrios has been one of the very worst starting pitchers in baseball this year.  Out of 59 qualified starters, he is 58th in WAR, 57th in ERA, 59th in xERA, 57th in FIP, 52nd in xFIP, 47th in k/9, 48th in SIERA, 58th in WPA, and 53rd in swinging strike rate.  The fact the Jays have a good record in games Berrios starts is because the offense has showed up those games, not because Berrios has been good.

[Cap'n Piranha]

20 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

NIce one. I'll bet you fooled some people. He's a detriment to their pitching staff. 28-16 in games when he appears is far worse than the Yankees' record in games in which he doesn't appear (31-7, 132 win pace).

Yeah, my bigger point was that quoting a team's record in games a player appears in is not a good indicator for how good that player is.  The Yankees are better when Higashioka plays than the Twins are.  If you can gauge a player's ability by their team's record in games they play, than clearly Higashioka is better than anyone currently on the Twins.

[Linus]

Couple of things. If we have to evaluate the prospects only at the time of the trade then you can only evaluate Berrios at the time of the trade. You don’t get to have both sides of the coin. 
 

The trade isn’t even the point. Falvine didn’t want Martin and SWR instead of Berrios, they didn’t want to give Berrios $120 million. And that might turn out to be very shrewd.