Article: Could Oswaldo Arcia's Ascension Mean Josh Willingham's Exit?

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1583-Arcia-s-ascension-could-mean-Willingham-s-exit

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins decide Arcia is ready, they can reduce Doumit's playing time at DH when everyone is healthy.

 

Any trade of Willingham or Morneau should based on the quality of return the Twins can get from a team in need of a bat.

 

The trade should not be based on the Twins need to find him a spot for a 21 year old. When Arcia is ready to contribute, Doumit will be a valuable piece on the bench. A trade is not necessary.

[clutterheart]

W/O Willingham this team becomes really left handed.

I can't see the trading him unless they are blown away.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

We can only hope. Willingham's exit means that he produces over the first half and makes himself even more marketable than ever. Arcia's ascension means that he produces at a level where the Front Office believes he's the 'real deal' for the long term. We end up with two for one--a productive rookie who's raking, and a top notch prospect in trade for the thirty-four-year-old Hammer. That's the best case scenario.

[Brandon]

The third wheel in the trade options is if Parmalee doesn't hit enough to stay up either. While he should, it should be noted that he may not hit enough also Willingham can get pushed to DH making Doumit a backup catcher/ back up OF/ pinch hitter/ back up 1B and Arcia starting in LF. There is no reason to rush to trade anyone as we don't have to trade anyone we can just have a stronger offense. There's also no reason to trade Morneau as we can make him a qualifying offer and get him on another 1 year deal or get another first round draft pick. I mean if we can get a top rated pitcher in a deal sure we make the trade but I don't think we will get the return needed to make a deal beneficial.

[mako83]

He is the cheapest 30-100 guy we could have and everybody says we should trade him. Same with Morneau qualifying offer for what he is making now get a first rounder if he doesn't take it. I still believe it also in the interest of ticket sales to.

[josecordoba]

Few Thoughts on Hammer

 

1. The issue though really shouldn't be his value in 2013. Extreme Best Case Scenario (And I Mean Extreme)- The Twins win 80 games. Trading Hammer maybe makes a difference of 5 games (A highly extreme scenario). Nothing really lost. I would think playing for 2014 even would be a bit of stretch (When Willingham's contact would expire). So the goal should be finding value for the next good Twins Team which might be 2015. If TR finds a Pitcher or Middle Infielder that looks attractive for these teams (They need to consider it)

 

2. The Liriano trade was criticized in some corners throughout the Twins Blogosphere. Yet the reality is Escobar looks to be the Twins Utility Guy for the Next Half-Decade where as Roberto Hernadez seems to be a 4 AAAA type pitcher. This is more value then going forward then Liriano would have offered.

[Jeff P]

There has been a lot of discussion about Hicks and team control, what about Arcia? In other words, if he does stay up without going back down to the minors, would he have spent enough time at Rochester this year so that the Twins get an extra year of team control?

[DK]

I am big Willingham fan and would like to see the Twins keep him. They need his right handed bat in the lineup. If the Twins wanted to put their best lineup on the field, they should go with this lineup: 2b Escobar, C Mauer, Lf Willingham, 1b Morneau, DH Parmalee/Doumit, Rf Arcia, 3b Plouffe, Cf Hicks, SS Florimon. If Florimon faulters then Escobar to SS and Dozier back in the lineup. The pitching staff is another question.

[Mike Sixel]

If you get an offer of a guy that is a good prospect, you take it. They are not competing this year, and probably not next.

[Steve Penz]

Few Thoughts on Hammer

 

1. The issue though really shouldn't be his value in 2013. Extreme Best Case Scenario (And I Mean Extreme)- The Twins win 80 games. Trading Hammer maybe makes a difference of 5 games (A highly extreme scenario). Nothing really lost. I would think playing for 2014 even would be a bit of stretch (When Willingham's contact would expire). So the goal should be finding value for the next good Twins Team which might be 2015. If TR finds a Pitcher or Middle Infielder that looks attractive for these teams (They need to consider it)

 

I like this and that there is a lot of focus on the value to be gained from Willingham and Mourneau. Arcia, Parmarlee and/or whoever would fill open spots provide no assurances but these are gambles the Twins need to make. Recently there is talk of how Span is performing vs the value of May/Worley. The twins gained a possibly serviceable player and possible front runner for a guy who might not be around when the team will next be relevant. If they are able to make these types of moves for Willingham and Mourneau I think it will be awesome and I will be comfortable with the risk that is does not work out vs resigning the older guys.

[Mike Sixel]

While the upside for the future is good, what do they do about the present? Just give up? I think they are in a tough spot, a spot they created.

[kab21]

There has been a lot of discussion about Hicks and team control, what about Arcia? In other words, if he does stay up without going back down to the minors, would he have spent enough time at Rochester this year so that the Twins get an extra year of team control?

 

He needs another week or so of AAA time to delay FA another year.

 

Any Willingham trade should be based on the return that the Twins get back. I don't think you will get a productive rookie and a good prospect unless you take a low upside solid rookie (worley for example) and a flawed prospect (May). that's not bad but I would be looking for more of a Meyer type return (a risky potential front line starter). They at least need to get something decent since they can still trade him during the offseason or next trade deadline.

[cc80man]

If Pirates are indeed in the talk that is great, with Willinghams team friendly contract, you have to ask for one of their 3 good pitching prospects; Cole, Taillon or Holmes. Resign Morneau 3 year 24 Million and now all of a sudden your rotation potential next year is Myers, May, Gibson, Taillon and Diamond or Worley. You could even throw in Worley/Diamond/Hendricks to make sure you get Taillon AA or Cole AAA.

[Steve Penz]

Few Thoughts on Hammer

 

1. The issue though really shouldn't be his value in 2013. Extreme Best Case Scenario (And I Mean Extreme)- The Twins win 80 games. Trading Hammer maybe makes a difference of 5 games (A highly extreme scenario). Nothing really lost. I would think playing for 2014 even would be a bit of stretch (When Willingham's contact would expire). So the goal should be finding value for the next good Twins Team which might be 2015. If TR finds a Pitcher or Middle Infielder that looks attractive for these teams (They need to consider it)

 

I like this and that there is a lot of focus on the value to be gained from Willingham and Mourneau. Arcia, Parmarlee and/or whoever would fill open spots provide no assurances but these are gambles the Twins need to make. Recently there is talk of how Span is performing vs the value of May/Worley. The twins gained a possibly serviceable player and possible front runner for a guy who might not be around when the team will next be relevant. If they are able to make these types of moves for Willingham and Mourneau I think it will be awesome and I will be comfortable with the risk that is does not work out vs resigning the older guys.

 

I have just realized that I have mixed up the details of the Span trade and the Revere trade. Sorry about that. I will now go to penalty box and feel shame.

[SweetOne69]

There has been a lot of discussion about Hicks and team control, what about Arcia? In other words, if he does stay up without going back down to the minors, would he have spent enough time at Rochester this year so that the Twins get an extra year of team control?

 

I believe that he is about a week short. Now he would have to be sent down for 3 weeks to get that week back. A player has to be sent down for 21 days for that time to NOT count against his clock.

[kab21]

If Pirates are indeed in the talk that is great, with Willinghams team friendly contract, you have to ask for one of their 3 good pitching prospects; Cole, Taillon or Holmes. Resign Morneau 3 year 24 Million and now all of a sudden your rotation potential next year is Myers, May, Gibson, Taillon and Diamond or Worley. You could even throw in Worley/Diamond/Hendricks to make sure you get Taillon AA or Cole AAA.

 

One of these are not like the other...

Cole

Taillon

Holmes

 

Cole and likely Taillon are probably not even close to attainable for Willingham. Holmes would only be acceptable as a 2nd (or 3rd) piece. The guy I would target on the Pirates is Alen hanson. I doubt the Pirates would do that but he's the only guy that really interests me (attainable guys). Heredia perhaps but there would have to be a few other really good prospects to go with him. Heredia sounds like the former prospect Deolis Guerra at this point.

[SweetOne69]

Assuming Parmelee can hold his own, I believe that Morneau will be traded first. Willingham is one of the few right handed power bats that the Twins have, so I would hold on to him as long as possible.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, Cole and Tallion are probably not attainable, but what if you did this?

 

Willingham, Worley, Wimmers (or something like this). yes, that makes 2013 even WORSE, but 2014 looks a lot better....

[Top Gun]

Parmelee sucks pretty soon he will have no value at all, should have traded him last winter.

[cc80man]

If you want a 30HR hitter, 100 RBI hitter who has a cheap contract you have to give up something. The Pirates have a semi deep #2, #3 minor league pitching. We got Phillies #1 prospect for Revere, we got Nationals #1 for Span, if you don't think you can get Pirates #1 or #2 for a 30 HR hitter with team friendly contract you are crazy, especially if other teams get involved.

[Mike Sixel]

Tallion and Cole are much better prospects than the Twins got....or are you suggesting they can get Profar for Willingham? Some systems just aren't as deep as others. Also, Revere and Span are younger than Josh. Both also play defense. The Nationals have a super deep system, and a team that is a WS contendor, they were more likely to give up some of the future for the present than the Pirates are....

[ashbury]

While the Pirates sound like they may have the right pieces to ask for in return, I kind of hate to see Willingham traded to a non-contender. The guy deserves better, and it's in the Twins' own interest to be seen as a good place for free agents like him to consider.

[cc80man]

I disagree, 6 of their 10 top prospects are pitchers. You got the #40 prospect for a .280 fast no power centerfielder. The Nationals have their top pitcher as AJ cole at #90, no other pitcher for them is in top 100 and they only have 3 pitchers in their own top 10. Nationals are not super deep, Baseball America has them ranked as the 25th deepest farm system and pitching poor while Pittsburg is ranked 5th and is pitching rich. 2013 Baseball Farm System Rankings - Minor League Ball

[Mike Sixel]

They are deep if you consider their starting staff in the majors is young, and awesome.....it isn't just about the minors, but I did not make that clear...my bad. You also just totaly ignored the "they are world serires contenders" part of the post, which to me is the biggest delta between them and the Pirates.

[cmb0252]

I agree, Cole and Tallion are probably not attainable, but what if you did this?

 

Willingham, Worley, Wimmers (or something like this). yes, that makes 2013 even WORSE, but 2014 looks a lot better....

 

They refused to move tallion or Cole for Upton so why would they do it for wilingham? Adding fillers wont help. Best case is we get hermida.

[kab21]

I agree, Cole and Tallion are probably not attainable, but what if you did this?

 

Willingham, Worley, Wimmers (or something like this). yes, that makes 2013 even WORSE, but 2014 looks a lot better....

 

I see that you are applying the Duensing rule with this trade speculation.

 

Duensing rule - including a lot of useful but not great players with very little upside when trades don't even come close to an acceptable offer.

 

Origin - BYTO - About 2 years ago Duensing (and even Casilla) found himself in pretty much every speculated trade. It was getting ridiculous.

[Mike Sixel]

one can always dream.....but let's be realistic, Worley is a legit #3/4 in the NL, and Wimmers was once considered a safe number 3. Neither is Duensing.....

 

And, I was replying to people suggesting somehow Willingham alone could get a good pitching prospect.......the only way Pit trades one of their big prospects is:

 

1. they get something good and young in return

2. they really, really, really want to get over .500 this year

 

Otherwise, I see no chance of dealing with Pit

[kab21]

If you want a 30HR hitter, 100 RBI hitter who has a cheap contract you have to give up something. The Pirates have a semi deep #2, #3 minor league pitching. We got Phillies #1 prospect for Revere, we got Nationals #1 for Span, if you don't think you can get Pirates #1 or #2 for a 30 HR hitter with team friendly contract you are crazy, especially if other teams get involved.

 

Trevor May isn't even in the top 100 on prospect lists. There is absolutely no way that he is comparable to Cole or even Taillon. These are legit top 25 overall prospects and aren't ranked very far behind Sano/Buxton. Would you give up Sano or Buxton for a guy like Willingham? If you would then you are crazy? If you think Willingham is worth that then you need to re-examine Willingham. He is entering his mid 30's, he has a long history of injuries and he's terrible defensively. He's a nice player but I would consider a top 50 prospect to be a good get for Willingham.

 

I also think everyone on here is crazy for overlooking Alen Hanson in that org. Starting pitching is one need but MI is in pretty bad shape at all levels also. he also is getting close to attainable.

[kab21]

one can always dream.....but let's be realistic, Worley is a legit #3/4 in the NL, and Wimmers was once considered a safe number 3. Neither is Duensing.....

 

And, I was replying to people suggesting somehow Willingham alone could get a good pitching prospect.......the only way Pit trades one of their big prospects is:

 

1. they get something good and young in return

2. they really, really, really want to get over .500 this year

 

Otherwise, I see no chance of dealing with Pit

 

After 2010 Duensing wasn't that far off from Worley. He had less success as a starter but he seemed like a solid option even if he didn't have great stuff (which Worley doesn't).

 

Wimmers has been a complete trainwreck since he was drafted and is currently recovering from a major injury. His trade value is practically non-existent. you can't just throw quantity together and try to get elite prospects. It just doesn't work like that.