VIDEO: Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan Have Unfair Expectations

[Tom Froemming]

Minnesota Twins rookie starting pitchers Bailay Ober and Joe Ryan both showed reasons to be optimistic about their futures but both are still so inexperienced. Twins fans seem to be placing hefty expectations on them, and given the current status of the rest of the rotation, what else are we supposed to do? The reality is, however, that development isn't always linear. This franchise desperately needs these two to build off their impressive debuts, but that's not always how things work out.

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[Brandon]

I am hoping for the best from Ryan and Ober, my minimum expectation is that 2 of Ryan, Ober, Thirpe, Dibnak, or Max can hold down the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation 5 to 10 starts till others start to show they are ready for opportunities like Winder or Balazovich.  In this expectation the Twins will need to sign or trade for 2 established staters.  Otherwise its management putting all of the pressure on those 2 to succeed.

[Whitey333]

Great article.  I totally agree that people are expecting of two pitchers with roughly 25 major league games between them.  They look good but for them to be considered front end of a major league rotation is ridiculous.  The starting staff as currently constructed is not major league caliber.  Not even AAA.  If and when the lockout ends I'm sure the dumpster diving for pitching will begin in earnest.

[Nick Nelson]

If you can throw strikes and miss bats in the majors I feel pretty good about your chances of having at least moderate success. Mejia and Romero never quite nailed down the "throwing strikes" part. How often have we seen a rookie pitcher (let alone two) come through and have the kind of K/BB success that Ober and Ryan did? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 12/30/2021 at 12:29 PM, Nick Nelson said:

If you can throw strikes and miss bats in the majors I feel pretty good about your chances of having at least moderate success. Mejia and Romero never quite nailed down the "throwing strikes" part. How often have we seen a rookie pitcher (let alone two) come through and have the kind of K/BB success that Ober and Ryan did? 

I agree, though I'm a lot less confident in Ryan. Ober went through lineups multiple times, pitched back-to-back against the same teams, etc. I'm more confident his stuff is legit, provided he stays healthy. Whereas I still have lingering concerns that Ryan's secondary stuff just isn't good enough and he'll ultimately revert to a one-trick pony. I'm still optimistic he can be good, there's just more concern surrounding him in my eyes.

[The Mad King]

I think what we saw with Ober is what we'll get again, but over the entire year. Expecting Ryan to be as dominant as he was...I think yeah, we're expecting too much. But I'm also old enough to remember Fernandomania. It could happen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 1/3/2022 at 9:17 AM, The Mad King said:

I think what we saw with Ober is what we'll get again, but over the entire year. Expecting Ryan to be as dominant as he was...I think yeah, we're expecting too much. But I'm also old enough to remember Fernandomania. It could happen.

Which Ober do you expect, though? He struggled mightily early in his 2021 debut. His first ten starts:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	FIP	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
May 18 to Jul 25, 2021	MIN	10	10	0	0	5-5	W-L:1-1	5.1	43.1	42	26	25	13	45	11	1	5.19	5.36	182	.251	.308	.521	.829	.277	733	66%	18%	9%	0.52		24%	7%	0	48		---%	2	3	0	167	6	3	0	2	1	3	.91	-0.460	.14	-0.07%	-3.36	107.90	202.00

His remaining ten starts:

Date	Tm	G	GS	GF	CG	Rslt	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	FIP	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	acLI	cWPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)
Jul 31 to Sep 24, 2021	MIN	10	10	0	0	7-3	W-L:2-2	5.1	49.0	50	19	18	6	51	9	0	3.31	3.84	197	.265	.284	.460	.745	.313	743	68%	16%	14%	0.54		21%	10%	0	53		---%	1	0	0	189	10	0	0	5	2	0	.93	0.532	.00	0.00%	6.62	150.65	270.00

[The Mad King]

My guess is we'll see both. Good and bad, hopefully less of the bad as he learns his way. We have a better sample size to go with.