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Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan Have Unfair Expectations

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Tom Froemming

Minnesota Twins rookie starting pitchers Bailay Ober and Joe Ryan both showed reasons to be optimistic about their futures but both are still so inexperienced. Twins fans seem to be placing hefty expectations on them, and given the current status of the rest of the rotation, what else are we supposed to do? The reality is, however, that development isn't always linear. This franchise desperately needs these two to build off their impressive debuts, but that's not always how things work out.

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I am hoping for the best from Ryan and Ober, my minimum expectation is that 2 of Ryan, Ober, Thirpe, Dibnak, or Max can hold down the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation 5 to 10 starts till others start to show they are ready for opportunities like Winder or Balazovich.  In this expectation the Twins will need to sign or trade for 2 established staters.  Otherwise its management putting all of the pressure on those 2 to succeed.

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Great article.  I totally agree that people are expecting of two pitchers with roughly 25 major league games between them.  They look good but for them to be considered front end of a major league rotation is ridiculous.  The starting staff as currently constructed is not major league caliber.  Not even AAA.  If and when the lockout ends I'm sure the dumpster diving for pitching will begin in earnest.

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If you can throw strikes and miss bats in the majors I feel pretty good about your chances of having at least moderate success. Mejia and Romero never quite nailed down the "throwing strikes" part. How often have we seen a rookie pitcher (let alone two) come through and have the kind of K/BB success that Ober and Ryan did? 

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On 12/30/2021 at 12:29 PM, Nick Nelson said:

If you can throw strikes and miss bats in the majors I feel pretty good about your chances of having at least moderate success. Mejia and Romero never quite nailed down the "throwing strikes" part. How often have we seen a rookie pitcher (let alone two) come through and have the kind of K/BB success that Ober and Ryan did? 

I agree, though I'm a lot less confident in Ryan. Ober went through lineups multiple times, pitched back-to-back against the same teams, etc. I'm more confident his stuff is legit, provided he stays healthy. Whereas I still have lingering concerns that Ryan's secondary stuff just isn't good enough and he'll ultimately revert to a one-trick pony. I'm still optimistic he can be good, there's just more concern surrounding him in my eyes.

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I think what we saw with Ober is what we'll get again, but over the entire year. Expecting Ryan to be as dominant as he was...I think yeah, we're expecting too much. But I'm also old enough to remember Fernandomania. It could happen.

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On 1/3/2022 at 9:17 AM, The Mad King said:

I think what we saw with Ober is what we'll get again, but over the entire year. Expecting Ryan to be as dominant as he was...I think yeah, we're expecting too much. But I'm also old enough to remember Fernandomania. It could happen.

Which Ober do you expect, though? He struggled mightily early in his 2021 debut. His first ten starts:

Date Tm G GS GF CG Rslt Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA FIP BF BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc IR IS SB CS PO AB 2B 3B IBB GDP SF ROE aLI WPA acLI cWPA RE24 DFS(DK) DFS(FD)
May 18 to Jul 25, 2021 MIN 10 10 0 0 5-5 W-L:1-1 5.1 43.1 42 26 25 13 45 11 1 5.19 5.36 182 .251 .308 .521 .829 .277 733 66% 18% 9% 0.52   24% 7% 0 48   ---% 2 3 0 167 6 3 0 2 1 3 .91 -0.460 .14 -0.07% -3.36 107.90 202.00

His remaining ten starts:

Date Tm G GS GF CG Rslt Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA FIP BF BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc IR IS SB CS PO AB 2B 3B IBB GDP SF ROE aLI WPA acLI cWPA RE24 DFS(DK) DFS(FD)
Jul 31 to Sep 24, 2021 MIN 10 10 0 0 7-3 W-L:2-2 5.1 49.0 50 19 18 6 51 9 0 3.31 3.84 197 .265 .284 .460 .745 .313 743 68% 16% 14% 0.54   21% 10% 0 53   ---% 1 0 0 189 10 0 0 5 2 0 .93 0.532 .00 0.00% 6.62 150.65 270.00
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