Leadoff Spot

[LaBombo]

I guess the belief that this guy was a first round pick for a reason and that maybe a guy that is that high of a draft pick shouldn't take 6, 7 years to make the bigs?

 

My point was that the AAA or majors decision should be based on what Hicks has accomplished (and what he has not) in his 5 years and over 2000 plate appearances in the minors, not what Twins scouts thought of him in high school.

 

Scout evaluations in 2012 and in 2013 ST have relevance, but even those are made less and less revealing as we increasingly see what Hicks is becoming by what he's actually done, as opposed to what the scouts think he'll be, much less what they thought 5 years ago.

[IdahoPilgrim]

How is having a first round pick spend 5 years in the minors considered rushing?

 

I concur.

 

And let's not forget that he earned his way onto the roster. What's the point of having a spring training and inviting non-roster invitees to camp if we're going to determine who belongs and who doesn't by minor league regular season numbers only anyway? Based on his performance in ST, he deserves his shot now. Whether he capitalizes on it is up to him.

 

And if I recall from earlier this year, the big question people were debating in these forums wasn't whether he was ready for the majors - it was should he be held back a few months to get the extra year of team control.

[IdahoPilgrim]

My point was that the AAA or majors decision should be based on what Hicks has accomplished (and what he has not) in his 5 years and over 2000 plate appearances in the minors, not what Twins scouts thought of him in high school.

 

Scout evaluations in 2012 and in 2013 ST have relevance, but even those are made less and less revealing as we increasingly see what Hicks is becoming by what he's actually done, as opposed to what the scouts think he'll be, much less what they thought 5 years ago.

 

You've hit upon a major source of disagreement, both in these forums and in baseball in general. How much should player evaluation depend primarily on past results and various sabermetric statistics, and how much should it depend on visual evaluation by scouts and coaches?

[Riverbrian]

You've hit upon a major source of disagreement, both in these forums and in baseball in general. How much should player evaluation depend primarily on past results and various sabermetric statistics, and how much should it depend on visual evaluation by scouts and coaches?

 

I think the best are believers in both.

[LaBombo]

I concur.

 

And let's not forget that he earned his way onto the roster. What's the point of having a spring training and inviting non-roster invitees to camp if we're going to determine who belongs and who doesn't by minor league regular season numbers only anyway? Based on his performance in ST, he deserves his shot now. Whether he capitalizes on it is up to him.

 

And if I recall from earlier this year, the big question people were debating in these forums wasn't whether he was ready for the majors - it was should he be held back a few months to get the extra year of team control.

 

It's called spring training instead of spring tryouts for a reason. Trusting 50 plate appearances over 2000 as an indicator of ability because they're the 50 most recent is a very bad decision. Good lord, ST barely even resembles major league ball the first couple of weeks.

 

And after the train wrecks that resulted from the promotions of Benson, Dozier, and Parmelee, it's pretty clear that promoting another position player without establishing that he can hit in AAA should absolutely be debated, regardless of the team control issue.

[jokin]

You've hit upon a major source of disagreement, both in these forums and in baseball in general. How much should player evaluation depend primarily on past results and various sabermetric statistics, and how much should it depend on visual evaluation by scouts and coaches?

 

People tend to forget that it was just a year ago, that Hicks' national and team prospect rankings had nosedived and there were more than a few calls by bloggers and fans that Hicks was appearing to be a bust as others in the organization were leap-frogging him. Of course, we all know that no sooner was the ink dry on these prognostications that Hicks proceeded to prove them all wrong. Talk about forest for the trees evaluation, his numbers in 2012 were very reflective of his entire pro career. It takes time for him to adjust at each level- let's give it time before we indict him or the organization for his rate of development- he is who he is. An argument can be made that the Twins should have pushed him harder, sooner, faster, but they had Span on a cheap long-term deal so they were more than happy with Hicks' baby-step progression. Fast forwarding to 2013, to me, the Twins knew this was a punted season, so moves were made and Hicks is now learning on the job in preparation for 2014 or even 15, there could easily be some backtracking to AAA when he struggles. The Twins would be pleased either way- if he is the 2013 ROY- or if he finally begins fitting comfortably into a Twins uniform for good in a year or two, it happened with Hunter.

[cmathewson]

First off, your argument is based on what? Those averages and formulas you referenced are based on years of results from all prospects, not just non-prospects but guys like Mauer and Cabrera who outperform their minor league careers. Dismissing them is simply ignoring overwhelming evidence, or just being ignorant of them. I would like to know more about why you feel Hicks can outperform his past 4 years results by 20 or 30%. The numbers you referenced are what I am hoping from Hicks in his prime (with a little more power) not his rookie year! I like him and his approach, just would like to know where these high expectations are coming from.

 

Also, if my wife is fat, I'd tell her. I firmly believe in not lying to your wife, including things she might not want to hear. You owe her that much IMO. If she doesn't want to hear it, she shouldn't ask.

 

I think you missed my point. I said "average", which I think includes all the best guys and all the worst guys and every guy in between. No one thought Mauer or Cabrera or Fielder would project to average. They were exceptional. I don't think Hicks is in that class, but he's well above average. Someone quoted those averages recently, which translated to something like .233/.290/.350 for Hicks. I think Hicks will be 20 to 30% above that, which was .270/.360/400/760

 

If that is all you expect Aaron Hicks to do in his prime, you do have low expectations for him.

 

You either have a very forgiving wife or are not married.

[LaBombo]

How much should player evaluation depend primarily on past results and various sabermetric statistics, and how much should it depend on visual evaluation by scouts and coaches?

 

 

I think the best are believers in both.

 

Absolutely. But like sb said, you can believe in both but still wonder if there is some sort of unofficial ratio of stock to be put in each. And especially which one wins out if they're in conflict. It's pretty clear from both words and actions that the Twins tend to put more stock in scouting.

 

They've had some wins with that approach, like sticking with Span when he appeared to be washing out with his lack of production in the minors. What makes the sabre crowd so irritated by the Twins is the number of failures, often spectacular ones like Blackburn, Marquis, Capps, and Nishi vs Hardy that have resulted when they seem to have paid minimal attention to, or just outright ignored, statistical portents of doom.

[jokin]

Absolutely. But like sb said, you can believe in both but still wonder if there is some sort of unofficial ratio of stock to be put in each. And especially which one wins out if they're in conflict. It's pretty clear from both words and actions that the Twins tend to put more stock in scouting.

 

They've had some wins with that approach, like sticking with Span when he appeared to be washing out with his lack of production in the minors. What makes the sabre crowd so irritated by the Twins is the number of failures, often spectacular ones like Blackburn, Marquis, Capps, and Nishi vs Hardy that have resulted when they seem to have paid minimal attention to, or just outright ignored,

 

"statistical portents of doom".

 

Isn't that the name of the sequel to Moneyball? ***

 

***Coming to a theater near you

[cmathewson]

People tend to forget that it was just a year ago, that Hicks' national and team prospect rankings had nosedived and there were more than a few calls by bloggers and fans that Hicks was appearing to be a bust as others in the organization were leap-frogging him. Of course, we all know that no sooner was the ink dry on these prognostications that Hicks proceeded to prove them all wrong. Talk about forest for the trees evaluation, his numbers in 2012 were very reflective of his entire pro career. It takes time for him to adjust at each level- let's give it time before we indict him or the organization for his rate of development- he is who he is. An argument can be made that the Twins should have pushed him harder, sooner, faster, but they had Span on a cheap long-term deal so they were more than happy with Hicks' baby-step progression. Fast forwarding to 2013, to me, the Twins knew this was a punted season, so moves were made and Hicks is now learning on the job in preparation for 2014 or even 15, there could easily be some backtracking to AAA when he struggles. The Twins would be pleased either way- if he is the 2013 ROY- or if he finally begins fitting comfortably into a Twins uniform for good in a year or two, it happened with Hunter.

 

I don't forget that, but I tend to discount it because he's developed since then. I look at the year he had in AA last year and focus on that. By all accounts, he has turned a corner. I see no reason to take his projection down by looking around that corner. But I also think those who pick apart his earlier years take an overly dim view of it. So let's look at it.

 

I don't think Twins fans are used to having guys drafted in the teens who come up as prospects. Hunter was drafted 20th overall. Span was also drafted 20th overall. When was the last outfielder taken higher than 20 in the June draft by the Twins before Hicks? I can't recall. Kirby was drafted in the January draft. It's been a while. Hicks was the top high school outfielder in that draft class at 14th overall. Based on his draft position, he should become a solid major leaguer. I know there are some high-profile busts in the draft. But the vast majority in his draft position succeed.

 

He had some issues in his development. But outfielders are known to have issues in development. Hunter didn't hit until AAA. Span didn't hit until his third year in AAA.

 

Both took longer than Hicks to get here. Hicks tore up rookie ball. Based on that, they sent him right to Beloit as a 19 year old. He wasn't ready. So they kept him there an extra year. If he had taken the traditional path through Elizabethton, he would have been in Beloit for the first time as a 20 year old and progressed normally to A+ as a 21 year old and AA as a 22 year old. A lot of those who discount him as a prospect talk about repeating Beloit. The neglect the fact that he skipped a level first. He had some issues in Fort Myers. Lots of guys struggle there. But two out of the last three years he's been excellent.

 

I do expect him to have his share of slumps in the majors. Hitting in the major leagues is hard. He'll face a lot of guys who are almost as good as Verlander. But his patient approach is relatively slump resistent. He's way more advanced at this age than either Hunter or Span were. I wouldn't surprised if he doesn't put up better numbers than Span did last year. I'm going out on a limb odds wise to say that. But, I've been over that. The odds don't favor better prospects, who often beat their projections by playing closer to their minor league numbers than the average ballplayer.

[LaBombo]

Isn't that the name of the sequel to Moneyball? ***

 

***Coming to a theater near you

 

That was funny. If they can't get Pitt I'm betting on direct to video. And I thought about going with something less over-the-top, but couldn't pass it up.

[cmathewson]

Hicks is projected to have a slightly better OPS than Revere, Carroll or Mastroianni. It is unlikely any of the 3 will be in the 700s. Overall, they will all be close with Hicks having a little more power and the others a little more on base.

 

If Hicks is given a chance, he should grow well into the 700s in the next few years while Revere and Mastro remain static and Carroll goes into coaching.

 

Hicks has way more raw power than any of those guys. He also has much better patience. Those two things combined peg his upside at 800+ OPS. The question is, when will he show his upside? I think we need to wait longer than one game to push the panic button.

[Twins best friend]

Too early to get down on Hicks and Verlander makes a lot of people look bad.

 

I was at the game as well (first time at an opening day game and, despite the cold, it was well worth it) and I believe that at least two of Hicks strikeouts from Verlander came on nasty curveballs, the likes of which Hicks hasn't seen so far in his career. I was also impressed with the walk he took. I know the prospects for the coming year aren't good but it'll at least be interesting to watch a kid with a (hopefully) bright future continue to develop.

[jorgenswest]

Hicks has way more raw power than any of those guys. He also has much better patience. Those two things combined peg his upside at 800+ OPS. The question is, when will he show his upside? I think we need to wait longer than one game to push the panic button.

 

Didn't mean to infer panic... just patience. It could be a 240/320/370 year. That is based on his minor league performance and has nothing to do with game 1. No reason to panic. That's normal. I would expect him to approach his minor league level (career 800 OPS) as he gains experience. It may be in his second 1000 plate appearances and not his first 1000.

[LaBombo]

The question is, when will he show his upside? I think we need to wait longer than one game to push the panic button.

To me it was both a bad baseball decision and may end up being a bad business decision to have Hicks start the season with the Twins.

 

That being said, I have no intention of making any judgements about Hicks in ten games, let alone one, whether it's Verlander or Porcello 2012 on the mound. If he's struggling to make contact at the end of April or so, the Twins should probably rethink their approach with him.

 

And if you feel that speculating what to do without him implies an unwarranted expectation of failure instead a hypothetical exercise that has nothing to do with yesterday, how about this: what do the Twins do about CF if Hicks is injured tomorrow and is out for a big chunk of the season?

 

Sure, Mastro starts, and could even be a pleasant surprise by managing above-replacement performance. But do the Twins really expect Benson to be the 4th OF for a whole season after his run of injuries and struggles at the plate?

[cmathewson]

Didn't mean to infer panic... just patience. It could be a 240/320/370 year. That is based on his minor league performance and has nothing to do with game 1. No reason to panic. That's normal. I would expect him to approach his minor league level (career 800 OPS) as he gains experience. It may be in his second 1000 plate appearances and not his first 1000.

 

I agree. If his upside is 800+, he might not hit it until he's 25 or 26. Until then, I expect something in the mid .700s, which is still very good fr a center fielder. Last year a 100 OPS+ was .740 I think.

[cmathewson]

And if you feel that speculating what to do without him implies an unwarranted expectation of failure instead a hypothetical exercise that has nothing to do with yesterday, how about this: what do the Twins do about CF if Hicks is injured tomorrow and is out for a big chunk of the season?

 

Sure, Mastro starts, and could even be a pleasant surprise by managing above-replacement performance. But do the Twins really expect Benson to be the 4th OF for a whole season after his run of injuries and struggles at the plate?

 

I think they'd add Boggs to the roster before Benson. After last season, Benson really does need a half a year of AAA at bats to get back to where he was in 2011. Plus, I'm not sure how his wrist is doing. Last I heard, he was resting it (the one he broke last year).

[LaBombo]

I think they'd add Boggs to the roster before Benson. After last season, Benson really does need a half a year of AAA at bats to get back to where he was in 2011. Plus, I'm not sure how his wrist is doing. Last I heard, he was resting it (the one he broke last year).

 

Yeah, that sounds right. To be honest, I had forgotten that Boggs is even considered an option in center. Either choice would be ugly, but at least there's a still a chance for Benson to turn into a useful player, and that's probably only going to happen the way you said.

[kab21]

I think you missed my point. I said "average", which I think includes all the best guys and all the worst guys and every guy in between. No one thought Mauer or Cabrera or Fielder would project to average. They were exceptional. I don't think Hicks is in that class, but he's well above average. Someone quoted those averages recently, which translated to something like .233/.290/.350 for Hicks. I think Hicks will be 20 to 30% above that, which was .270/.360/400/760

 

If that is all you expect Aaron Hicks to do in his prime, you do have low expectations for him.

 

I think you are pulling numbers out of thin air. There are no batters that hit .000/.000/.000 so you can't just say 20-30% above the projections. I'm not even sure that you understand how those projections work or just how good of a prospect one has to put up a .750 OPS season as a rookie. Hicks has elite defense but compared to other hitters he hasn't had an elite bat in the minors. He's young and he has a bright future but expectations are too high this early.

[LaBombo]

Hicks has elite defense but compared to other hitters he hasn't had an elite bat in the minors. He's young and he has a bright future but expectations are too high this early.

 

+1,000. When the arguments against having a double A guy start the season in triple A started including things like 'It will hurt attendance' and 'He'll pout and never sign an extension because they messed with his service time', it was obvious that reason had given way to rationalization in the discussion about Hicks.

[Badsmerf]

So cmathew, you're basis for Hicksie's numbers is on his approach and maturity. I can understand the optimism, because that is why I see him as a potential 800 OPS player that settles in the upper .700's. Pretty good player really. The problem is that even last season he has contact issues. He K's at 20% per year and his average was supported by a .346 BABIP. Now, that isn't a crazy BABIP, but he's alternated between a little above .300 to around .350. Sooooo.... anyway, you have your opinion and we'll just have to let it play out.

[cmathewson]

So cmathew, you're basis for Hicksie's numbers is on his approach and maturity. I can understand the optimism, because that is why I see him as a potential 800 OPS player that settles in the upper .700's. Pretty good player really. The problem is that even last season he has contact issues. He K's at 20% per year and his average was supported by a .346 BABIP. Now, that isn't a crazy BABIP, but he's alternated between a little above .300 to around .350. Sooooo.... anyway, you have your opinion and we'll just have to let it play out.

 

He'll never have the contact of Revere or even Span. But I don't really care as long as he shows the patience and power he has shown in the minors. I used to think making outs with contact had more value than strikeouts. That was before I saw Ben Revere ground out 222 times in one year.

[kab21]

BA on K's is .000. If you K a lot then you it's hard to have a good BA. The exception would be big power hitters that hit a lot of HR's (BA = 1.000) or the lucky few that can maintain a .340+ BAPIP. I'm not ready to consider Hicks one of those lucky few yet.

 

If he K's in 20-25% of his PA's then it's going to be difficult to post a .260 BA. that's just how the numbers work and as a young rookie I think it's likely that he K's more often this year in the majors than last year in the minors.

[cmathewson]

BA on K's is .000. If you K a lot then you it's hard to have a good BA. The exception would be big power hitters that hit a lot of HR's (BA = 1.000) or the lucky few that can maintain a .340+ BAPIP. I'm not ready to consider Hicks one of those lucky few yet.

 

 

BA is a practically worthless stat. Hicks' career OBP is .379. His career slugging percentage is .421. Compare that to Revere. Career minor league OBP of .383 and SLG of .404. Of course, most of Revere's OBP and SLG is BA. Much of Hick's OBP is BB. His SLG is IsOP. Which would you rather have? I'd take Hicks' numbers in a heart beat. What's the difference between a K and a ground out? A ground out can lead to a DP. It can also advance the runner. Those two things tend to balance each other out.

[Shane Wahl]

This discussion is occurring after one game???? Anyway, Verlander is demonically good and one cannot expect someone who has barely faced pitching beyond AA to deal appropriately with a pitcher like that. Verlander fooled Willingham on the same pitch many times (the curve). It is a ridiculous pitch.

 

Michael Bourn's career OPS in the minors was .770. His MLB OPS is .704 (though one should adjust for steals some). Andrew McCutchen's career minor OPS was .785. His MLB OPS is .858 and that is going to climb.

 

Hicks' career minors OPS is .800, better than both of them. I would look for Hicks to be somewhere right in the middle in his MLB career over the next several years (so .775-.800) and this coupled with great defense makes him a huge value for the Twins. A better value than Span and he was above average overall.

 

There is ZERO reason to mess with the lineup except in days off for Hicks (Mastro takes position, Carroll takes leadoff).

[Mr. Brooks]

I think you missed my point. I said "average", which I think includes all the best guys and all the worst guys and every guy in between. No one thought Mauer or Cabrera or Fielder would project to average. They were exceptional. I don't think Hicks is in that class, but he's well above average. Someone quoted those averages recently, which translated to something like .233/.290/.350 for Hicks. I think Hicks will be 20 to 30% above that, which was .270/.360/400/760

 

If that is all you expect Aaron Hicks to do in his prime, you do have low expectations for him.

 

You either have a very forgiving wife or are not married.

 

I don't think those expectations are low at all.

A CF who can OPS .760 while giving you elite defense has a lot of value.

[Badsmerf]

BA is a practically worthless stat. Hicks' career OBP is .379. His career slugging percentage is .421. Compare that to Revere. Career minor league OBP of .383 and SLG of .404. Of course, most of Revere's OBP and SLG is BA. Much of Hick's OBP is BB. His SLG is IsOP. Which would you rather have? I'd take Hicks' numbers in a heart beat. What's the difference between a K and a ground out? A ground out can lead to a DP. It can also advance the runner. Those two things tend to balance each other out.

It isn't a worthless stat at all, you need a hand slap for that. Different players bring different skill sets. Revere's value is driven by his ability to make contact at an insane rate. Add in his speed and most GB's aren't turned into DP. He hit 295 ground balls last season, only 8 resulted in a double play. I couldn't find GIDP successful %, but I'm guessing it is pretty low. So, for a player like Revere, hitting a GB is a very successful approach. He also avoid infield fly balls, which are the worst type of contact.

 

Hicks is a different type of player, true. His OBP should be pretty good, despite his high amount of K's. That is still valuable. I will completely argue, an OBP driven by AVG is better than an OBP driven by BB because hitting the ball moves runners and forces the defense to make plays plus there will be a % that go for extra bases. Like kab said, striking out a lot makes it difficult to have a good average. Add in a small amount of power (potential to continue development) and it makes it even less likely. My guess for Hicks this season is .250/.320/.410, and that is being pretty optimistic.

[Mr. Brooks]

BA is a practically worthless stat. Hicks' career OBP is .379. His career slugging percentage is .421. Compare that to Revere. Career minor league OBP of .383 and SLG of .404. Of course, most of Revere's OBP and SLG is BA. Much of Hick's OBP is BB. His SLG is IsOP. Which would you rather have? I'd take Hicks' numbers in a heart beat. What's the difference between a K and a ground out? A ground out can lead to a DP. It can also advance the runner. Those two things tend to balance each other out.

 

I think you misunderstood the point he was trying to make about K rates.

(I think) his point is that you CAN get a hit on a groundball, you can never get a hit on a K.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I will completely argue, an OBP driven by AVG is better than an OBP driven by BB because hitting the ball moves runners and forces the defense to make plays plus there will be a % that go for extra bases.

 

I think most people would agree with that if the AVG was guaranteed.

 

But, as we know, AVG fluctuates and has a tendency to drop off before many other skills (such as BB%) unless you're a Joe Mauer or Paul Molitor (and that has a lot to do with their BB%, as it shows they maintain that AVG through bat control and discipline, not outright speed).

 

Which is why Revere has value now but as he enters into his late 20s, he could turn into Juan Pierre (or worse) as he loses a step.

[ThePuck]

I think most people would agree with that if the AVG was guaranteed.

 

But, as we know, AVG fluctuates and has a tendency to drop off before many other skills (such as BB%) unless you're a Joe Mauer or Paul Molitor (and that has a lot to do with their BB%, as it shows they maintain that AVG through bat control and discipline, not outright speed).

 

Which is why Revere has value now but as he enters into his late 20s, he could turn into Juan Pierre (or worse) as he loses a step.

 

He'll be lucky to have a Juan Pierre type career.