Trading Taylor Rogers

[Tim]

First time poster, long time lurker. Howdy!

So this was a comment I recently had on John Bonnes's piece on trading Taylor Rogers. I wanted to expand on my thoughts and lay out my opinion for everyone...

Taylor Rogers has more value than we think. Left handed relievers who over the course of the last 3 years (aside from covid shortened season), have averaged 60-70 games, with a 10.5/K9, and a 2.63 ERA don't grow on trees. 

He also has another year of control on his deal. Take a look at what guys like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman have brought back in recent years at the deadline. Teams overpay for lockdown arms at the deadline. Deploying these late inning guys has been the blueprint to success in the postseason.

While Rogers is not on the same level as Chapman and Miller, the packages are interesting to examine. 

The Yankees received Clint Frazier, the no. 15 prospect in baseball, and Justus Sheffield, the no. 78 prospect in baseball for Andrew Miller, who at the time had a reasonable contract with 2.5 years remaining. I suppose that's what 1.39 ERA and 77k's in 44IP gets you.

Aroldis Chapman on an expiring deal was able to net the Yanks Gleyber Torres, the no. 17 prospect in baseball. That said, he had a 2.01 ERA with an absurd 15.8/K9 that season.

Zach Britton, on an expiring deal, brought the Orioles the no. 7 prospect (Tate) and no. 17 prospect (Carroll) from within the Yankees farm system in 2018. He also had only pitched 15 innings that season to the tune of 3.45 ERA.

Rogers should bring a return better than that.

My point is that teams will overpay for relievers who have proven track records of being dominant. Rogers is not getting you the return that Chapman and Miller got the Yankees, but he certainly can get you more than what Britton got the Orioles. A top 100 prospect is certainly not out of the question.

This front office does not pay for relievers. Yes, Addison Reed and Colome are exceptions, but those signings, well, lets not revisit them. They also seem to view relievers as expendable. Letting Trevor May walk in free agency and trading away Ryan Pressley in 2018 when he was in a similar situation with 1.5 of control. Rogers will most likely command somewhere in the range of a 3/30mil deal on the open market. He'll also be turning 32 going into the 2022 season. If I had a crystal ball, I say no way they go for that. 

Teams that make sense? 

I'd look at the Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Padres, and Dodgers as potential fits. 

_______________________________________________________________

What does a package looks like?

Personally, the Mets really intrigue me. Cohen has been very vocal that the front office is in "win - now" mode and that's apparent with the the recent moves the front office has made. Currently leading the NL East, the pitching staff has an MLB leading 2.64 ERA (!!!) from their starters.. Recently they've been rumored to be in the market for bullpen help. 

baseballtradevalues.com, a great site for evaluating a players value is typically fairly spot on. Not so much with relievers. They currently have Rogers worth 5mil, which frankly is not right at all. 

Furthering that point, the Willy Adames trade validates that, check it out here - https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-46556/

Trevor Rogers projected ZIPS projection for the remainder of the season places him worth about .9 in WAR, roughly 8.8mil in value. The projected WAR for Rogers in 2021 is about 1.1 so lets estimate that's about 9,1mil in value.

 Factor in the demand aspect and teams overpaying in the past for lockdown relievers, I'd anticipate Rogers being worth somewhere in the 18-21 mil range. 

So, using baseballtradevalue.com to look at the Mets farm system, here's my proposed package:

 

Mets - Taylor Rogers LHP - 20mil value

Twins - Matt Allan RHP, Robert Dominguez RHP, Jordany Ventura RHP - 17.20mil value

 

Allan being the headliner, currently out for the season having Tommy John this past spring. Ranked as the No. 59 prospect in baseball per MLB.com prior to the season, Allan projects as a middle of the rotation starter with a 96mph fastball and really great spin rate numbers. I've seen a few reports that he looked fantastic against double and triple A talent at the Mets alternate site last season. If we can secure a 20 year old starter with a clean delivery and projectable frame, I'm comfortable waiting until 2022-2023 to see it. Dominguez No, 11 and Ventura No. 19 in the Mets farm system, both are upside assets. Solid scouting reports with projectability to develop and stick as starters.

So this being my first ever post, it was a bit too long. But would love to hear your guys thoughts and comments. Cheers

[Dman]

I really liked your article reminding us how valuable elite Lefties can be on the trade market. Especially at the deadline.  Top 100 prospects have been traded for elite relief.  

IMO it is a little bit dangerous to assume Allen comes back and back as strong as ever from TJ surgery so there is some risk there.  I don't have a great mind for trades as I am generally biased about the players in the Twins system because I follow them more closely.  If Allen is as good as predicted it sounds like a very good trade to me.  Picking up mid to front line rotation piece is exactly what the Twins need.

[Dodecahedron]

Very good post.  Thank you!

[Thegrin]

Trade Rogers? Oh No! MY heart couldn't take it! 

[beckmt]

On 6/24/2021 at 12:51 PM, Tim said:

First time poster, long time lurker. Howdy!

So this was a comment I recently had on John Bonnes's piece on trading Taylor Rogers. I wanted to expand on my thoughts and lay out my opinion for everyone...

Taylor Rogers has more value than we think. Left handed relievers who over the course of the last 3 years (aside from covid shortened season), have averaged 60-70 games, with a 10.5/K9, and a 2.63 ERA don't grow on trees. 

He also has another year of control on his deal. Take a look at what guys like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman have brought back in recent years at the deadline. Teams overpay for lockdown arms at the deadline. Deploying these late inning guys has been the blueprint to success in the postseason.

While Rogers is not on the same level as Chapman and Miller, the packages are interesting to examine. 

The Yankees received Clint Frazier, the no. 15 prospect in baseball, and Justus Sheffield, the no. 78 prospect in baseball for Andrew Miller, who at the time had a reasonable contract with 2.5 years remaining. I suppose that's what 1.39 ERA and 77k's in 44IP gets you.

Aroldis Chapman on an expiring deal was able to net the Yanks Gleyber Torres, the no. 17 prospect in baseball. That said, he had a 2.01 ERA with an absurd 15.8/K9 that season.

Zach Britton, on an expiring deal, brought the Orioles the no. 7 prospect (Tate) and no. 17 prospect (Carroll) from within the Yankees farm system in 2018. He also had only pitched 15 innings that season to the tune of 3.45 ERA.

Rogers should bring a return better than that.

My point is that teams will overpay for relievers who have proven track records of being dominant. Rogers is not getting you the return that Chapman and Miller got the Yankees, but he certainly can get you more than what Britton got the Orioles. A top 100 prospect is certainly not out of the question.

This front office does not pay for relievers. Yes, Addison Reed and Colome are exceptions, but those signings, well, lets not revisit them. They also seem to view relievers as expendable. Letting Trevor May walk in free agency and trading away Ryan Pressley in 2018 when he was in a similar situation with 1.5 of control. Rogers will most likely command somewhere in the range of a 3/30mil deal on the open market. He'll also be turning 32 going into the 2022 season. If I had a crystal ball, I say no way they go for that. 

Teams that make sense? 

I'd look at the Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Padres, and Dodgers as potential fits. 

_______________________________________________________________

What does a package looks like?

Personally, the Mets really intrigue me. Cohen has been very vocal that the front office is in "win - now" mode and that's apparent with the the recent moves the front office has made. Currently leading the NL East, the pitching staff has an MLB leading 2.64 ERA (!!!) from their starters.. Recently they've been rumored to be in the market for bullpen help. 

baseballtradevalues.com, a great site for evaluating a players value is typically fairly spot on. Not so much with relievers. They currently have Rogers worth 5mil, which frankly is not right at all. 

Furthering that point, the Willy Adames trade validates that, check it out here - https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-46556/

Trevor Rogers projected ZIPS projection for the remainder of the season places him worth about .9 in WAR, roughly 8.8mil in value. The projected WAR for Rogers in 2021 is about 1.1 so lets estimate that's about 9,1mil in value.

 Factor in the demand aspect and teams overpaying in the past for lockdown relievers, I'd anticipate Rogers being worth somewhere in the 18-21 mil range. 

So, using baseballtradevalue.com to look at the Mets farm system, here's my proposed package:

 

Mets - Taylor Rogers LHP - 20mil value

Twins - Matt Allan RHP, Robert Dominguez RHP, Jordany Ventura RHP - 17.20mil value

 

Allan being the headliner, currently out for the season having Tommy John this past spring. Ranked as the No. 59 prospect in baseball per MLB.com prior to the season, Allan projects as a middle of the rotation starter with a 96mph fastball and really great spin rate numbers. I've seen a few reports that he looked fantastic against double and triple A talent at the Mets alternate site last season. If we can secure a 20 year old starter with a clean delivery and projectable frame, I'm comfortable waiting until 2022-2023 to see it. Dominguez No, 11 and Ventura No. 19 in the Mets farm system, both are upside assets. Solid scouting reports with projectability to develop and stick as starters.

So this being my first ever post, it was a bit too long. But would love to hear your guys thoughts and comments. Cheers

I  see this as depending on the Twins direction.  If you can't extend Berrios or Buxton then this is the correct way to go.  If you can then Rogers maybe should be extended to keep the window open.  

Great article though.  Padres and Dodgers should both also be in the mix and both have top level farm systems.

[In My La Z boy]

Great write up! The decision will depend upon our willingness to be competitive next year. If we intend to compete next year we are keeping him. If we do a blow up, Rogers is most definitely a key trade piece.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree.  This all comes down to what the vision forward for this team is with our FO.  If we're in "Burn this House to the Ground" mode then a trade of Rogers makes sense.  However, it appears to me in your Mets Trade that we're one "fringy" prospect short.  The Mets are getting MORE value as it appears to me and as the team in "win-now" mode, they should at least equal or over-pay to do so.  I don't want the Twins to burn everything to the ground, but the failures of our FO have put them in a position where they need to address some MAJOR roster decisions at the trade deadline and into the off season.  Rogers is really our only GOOD bullpen arm (unless Duffey comes around).  Are we burning our ships on the shore to show we're not giving up on the near future or are we admitting we have to completely re-tool ??