Opening Day Lineup

[Badsmerf]

I would champion Mauer for the 2-hole for a few different reasons. The biggest, is that I want him to get more AB's in the season, and hitting second will accomplish this, small amount or not. Also, he isn't a big power threat (or hit many fly balls) so I don't consider him an RBI guy. I would be fine with him hitting 3rd if there were better (more traditional) options on the Twins. I can't justify a low OBP is this position because he can do the small things well. Those type of hitters have a place in the MLB, but its not at the top of a line-up, speed or not.

[Mike Sixel]

"productive outs". I hate productive outs. The object is to not make an out, not to advance the runner with a sacrifice bunt, or a ground out to 2nd. The math on this (before the 7th/8th inning) is super, super, super clear to anyone that wants to pay attention to it.

[Willihammer]

I'm not sure what your point is. Speed can be quantified to show value in some way?

 

Yes, that was my point. You said it was impossible to argue for speed and I'm saying its possible and here's an example of where we can see the value of superior speed. Rather than merely flatly siting UBR or some other esoteric stat that might get dismissed as sabr mumbo jumbo.

 

There's an average weighted value to taking the extra base, tagging up, breaking up a double play, beating out a potential double play for a fieldier's choice, advancing to third on a GB hit up the middle. There's anywhere from 1 to 2 wins or more separating the best and the worst baserunners every year, and that's before you even look at stolen bases.

[TheLeviathan]

Also -as good as hammer's analysis is the conclusion is still too strong. Some of that gap could be further reduced by any number of explanations other than speed. One example would be the number of those singles hit to RF vs LF.

[Badsmerf]

Yes, that was my point. You said it was impossible to argue for speed and I'm saying its possible and here's an example of where we can see the value of superior speed. Rather than merely flatly siting UBR or some other esoteric stat that might get dismissed as sabr mumbo jumbo.

 

There's an average weighted value to taking the extra base, tagging up, breaking up a double play, beating out a potential double play for a fieldier's choice, advancing to third on a GB hit up the middle. There's anywhere from 1 to 2 wins or more separating the best and the worst baserunners every year, and that's before you even look at stolen bases.

Ok, you've shown there is evidence. However, how can you predict it going forward? From a hitting standpoint, it is easy to show trends and point to things like LD%, BABIP, ISO and all kinds of other stats to predict future success. What can you point to (stat, clocked time, ect.) with a player that shows they are more likely to score when on the basepaths? Perhaps using this you can compare it to average RS% and then find where a difference in OBP is negated by speed. Sounds like an interesting blog post to me... shoot, maybe you could even get published! To me, its more work than its worth since it would take a large amount of data to overcome numerous variables that exist.

[Physics Guy]

Shockingly, LaVelle projects this lineup in his blog today:

 

"Hopefully, that Friday game will be the day manager Ron Gardenhire posts the lineup he intends to open the season with. Indications are that the order will go Hicks, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon. Gardy could come up with something else between now and Opening Day. But the last week to week and a half of camp is when spring training games are treated more like regular season games."

 

Twins spring training: Plouffe, Deduno, rain | StarTribune.com

[Mike Sixel]

Brian Dozier and his OBP hitting second....................not sure how either Doumit or Parmalee hit in front of Plouffe either, not based on last year. Maybe I'm missing something.

 

I know we have beat this horse so we can't even see it used to be a horse, but Mauer should be hitting second.

[Willihammer]

I don't see why Mauer shouldn't be leading off. He's an OBP machine and probably the 2nd best baserunner on the team.

[Badsmerf]

I don't see why Mauer shouldn't be leading off. He's an OBP machine and probably the 2nd best baserunner on the team.

I completely agree. Gardy would never bat someone leadoff without speed! (from now on I'm referring to it as speed!, and will try to work it into my posts from here on out). In the scheme of things, batting first or second wont matter too much if Hicks can get on base like he did in the minors.

[LaBombo]

Luckily Revere batted 2nd a couple hundred times last year. Otherwise, with a .271 Obp 2nd baseman in the 2 spot, we might start hearing more crazy talk about how Gardy almost always plugs in a middle infielder there regardless of their on base skills.

 

Anyway, as long as Dozey has teh SPEEDZ for it...

[Ultima Ratio]

Shockingly, LaVelle projects this lineup in his blog today:

 

"Hopefully, that Friday game will be the day manager Ron Gardenhire posts the lineup he intends to open the season with. Indications are that the order will go Hicks, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon. Gardy could come up with something else between now and Opening Day. But the last week to week and a half of camp is when spring training games are treated more like regular season games."

 

Twins spring training: Plouffe, Deduno, rain | StarTribune.com

 

 

Besides batting Dozier second, I can at least see why Gardy would want his lineup this way -- against LHP it alternates R/L batters as is, and RHB against RHP in only the 2 and 8 holes. (Florimon, Hicks and Doumit are all switch hitters, right?)

[Mr. Brooks]

Luckily Revere batted 2nd a couple hundred times last year. Otherwise, with a .271 Obp 2nd baseman in the 2 spot, we might start hearing more crazy talk about how Gardy almost always plugs in a middle infielder there regardless of their on base skills.

 

 

Anyway, as long as Dozey has teh SPEEDZ for it...

 

You know, when I made the statement, "play 2nd, bat 2nd", my initial thoughts were that it would be so obvious that I didnt mean this literally, that I didnt bother to further explain my point.

Then when people did take it literally, I made sure to explain that it wasnt meant that way, stated that I don't know or care if Gardy bats MI's more in the 2 hole than others, and explained what was behind the comment.

Yet, somehow there still seems to be belief that such a comment was meant literally. Either that or someone just prefers to intentionally ignore those facts because its funner to belittle someones posts.

[Physics Guy]

Besides batting Dozier second, I can at least see why Gardy would want his lineup this way -- against LHP it alternates R/L batters as is, and RHB against RHP in only the 2 and 8 holes. (Florimon, Hicks and Doumit are all switch hitters, right?)

 

I agree, the lineup looks good to me except where they have Dozier. Dozier should bat 8th with everyone 3-8 sliding up a spot, IMO.

[LaBombo]

Yet, somehow there still seems to be belief that such a comment was meant literally. Either that or someone just prefers to intentionally ignore those facts because its funner to belittle someones posts.

 

Slow down there, Mr. B. You should have more confidence in your earlier assertion. My post was a reference to the ridiculous, snarky post that offered Ben Revere's 347 AB's in the two spot as an attempted rebuttal to the fact, not opinion, that Gardenhire bats a middle infielder (very often a second baseman) in the two spot the overwhelming majority of the time.

 

Revere's 2012 total in the two spot is by far the most for a non-middle infielder during Gardenhire's tenure. Only two others have taken more than 100 AB's there in a season for him, Jacque Jones (159) and Mauer (123).

 

Batting middle infielders second is fine with me, if those middle infielders are qualified. But looking at OBP as a quick and dirty check of two spot hitter competence, Twins middle infielders are usually and emphatically not qualified.

 

In seven of Gardy's eleven seasons as manager, the two spot hitters have managed an aggregate OBP either worst or second worst in the lineup (3 worsts, 4 second-worsts). In every one of those seasons, a middle infielder received either the majority or plurality of AB's there. In all but one year, middle infielders accounted for at least 500 and usually 550 or more at bats in the two spot.

 

And it's really not much better if you use OPS instead. In the seven aforementioned seasons, the two spot hitters managed an OPS better than second-worst only three times, finishing 6th twice and 7th once. In one of the 6th place finishes for two spot hitters, 2009, Mauer spiked the OPS aggregate by taking 123 AB's there and slugging over .700.

 

So yes, Gardy bats a middle infielder in the two spot almost every game. He does it whether or not they can get on base or hit for power. And apparently he's getting ready to do it again with Dozier.

[Mr. Brooks]

Slow down there, Mr. B. You should have more confidence in your earlier assertion. My post was a reference to the ridiculous post that offered Ben Revere's 347 AB's in the two spot as an attempted rebuttal to the fact, not opinion, that Gardenhire bats a middle infielder (very often a second baseman) in the two spot the overwhelming majority of the time.

 

Which is fine with me, if that middle infielder is qualified. But looking at OBP as a quick and dirty check of two spot hitter competence, Twins middle infielders are usually and emphatically not qualified.

 

In seven of Gardy's eleven seasons as manager, the two spot hitters have managed an aggregate OBP either worst or second worst in the lineup (3 worsts, 4 second-worsts). In every one of those seasons, a middle infielder received either the majority or plurality of AB's there. In all but one year, middle infielders accounted for at least 500 and usually 550 or more at bats in the two spot.

 

And it's really not much better if you use OPS instead. In the seven aforementioned seasons, the two hitters managed an OPS better than second-worst only three times, finishing 6th twice and 7th once. In one of the 6th place finishes for two spot hitters, 2009, Mauer spiked the OPS aggregate by taking 123 AB's there and slugging over .700.

 

So yes, Gardy bats a middle infielder in the two spot almost every game. He does it whether or not they can get on base or hit for power. And apparently he's getting ready to do it again with Dozier.

 

Ok, gotcha.

[LaBombo]

Agreed. This slight against Gardy that he only bats second basemen in the 2-spot has always rubbed me the wrong way. What he does prefer is a "speedy guy who can run around and steal some bases" in the 2-spot. I don't blame him for that either. The fact that the Twins' speed guys have tended to be Second Basemen has simply made that occurrence more often. Now, arguing that he should pay more attention to these speed guys' On Base numbers before he puts them in the 2-spot would be a more fair criticism.

 

Pay more attention? Are you certain he's been paying ANY attention?

 

Gardenhire bats middle infielders in the two spot almost all the time. They've not only been mostly mediocre to dreadful relative to rest of the league at getting on base, they've usually been worse than the rest of the Twins' lineup . Given the absence of Jose Reyes/Ian Kinsler base stealing prowess, why is it that for over a decade there's usually a middle infielder who can't find his way onto first base with a GPS and a Sherpa guide manning the two spot for Gardenhire?

 

Bunting? Bat control? Because they battle until their tails come off? This may seem like a wacky conspiracy theory, but in the absence of any tangible evidence to the contrary, it looks to me like Gardenhire usually pencils a middle infielder into the second lineup spot because he believes that a middle infielder should bat second.

[10PagesOfClearBlueSky]

Pay more attention? Are you certain he's been paying ANY attention?

 

 

Gardenhire bats middle infielders in the two spot almost all the time. They've not only been mostly mediocre to dreadful relative to rest of the league at getting on base, they've usually been worse than the rest of the Twins' lineup . Given the absence of Jose Reyes/Ian Kinsler base stealing prowess, why is it that for over a decade there's usually a middle infielder who can't find his way onto first base with a GPS and a Sherpa guide manning the two spot for Gardenhire?

 

 

Bunting? Bat control? Because they battle until their tails come off? This may seem like a wacky conspiracy theory, but in the absence of any tangible evidence to the contrary, it looks to me like Gardenhire usually pencils a middle infielder into the second lineup spot because he believes that a middle infielder should bat second.

 

 

It's pretty simple. He values SPEED, SCRAPPINESS, BATTLING TAILS OFF... And let's not forget REALLY GETTING AFTER IT.

 

 

And he perceives the players on his roster that best fit those descriptions to have been middle infielders. So he bats them second. When he's had other players that he's perceived to fit that description, he's batted them second as well. And a discussion regarding the not-yet-quantified aspects of the game would take those qualities more seriously than many people participating in this thread are willing to take them. And if, one day, those ideas and quantifications become sophisticated enough to reliably project future performance, those people will have some reconsidering to do... Won't they doctor?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/attachments/minnesota-twins-talk/3538d1363832333-opening-day-lineup-image.jpg

 

All in good fun, and many of your criticisms are valid.... But I think everybody is guilty of sometimes taking for granted that we are NOW, OFFICIALLY living in the times when we've FINALLY GOT IT ALL FIGURED OUT.

[10PagesOfClearBlueSky]

Now..... Could you teach me how to put a photograph in here correctly...

[Badsmerf]

There is a little tree icon to the right of your smiley face above where you type. Click on that and it does it for you. You could use code too, I'm guessing since you're asking that you aren't familiar with it so the first way is easier.

[Pius Jefferson]

With his job on the line I thought he might mix things up with the lineup. I guess the writing is on the wall and he'd rather go out doing things is way and not change.

[LaBombo]

Now..... Could you teach me how to put a photograph in here correctly...

 

And get us both kicked? Ok, fine, my penance for a merciless, self-proclaimed win in a topic that barely registers with Twinskind, let alone mankind...

 

Cursor over picture. Right-click. From pop-up, left-click on "copy image". When you get to a post/page you want to throw down on with the graphic in question, place the cursor over the best guess insertion point, left-click and hit Ctrl-V:

http://calibermag.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/You-cant-handle-the-truth6.jpg

 

 

Btw, graphics in posts may be stealing bandwidth and profits from Twins affiliates like this site, and so by corollary this thread may be unintentionally draining resources that could prevent the future Twins from acquiring a Kevin Correia or retaining a Nick Blackburn. So when you speak of me, speak well. TBC.

[CDog]

You know, when I made the statement, "play 2nd, bat 2nd", my initial thoughts were that it would be so obvious that I didnt mean this literally, that I didnt bother to further explain my point.

Then when people did take it literally, I made sure to explain that it wasnt meant that way, stated that I don't know or care if Gardy bats MI's more in the 2 hole than others, and explained what was behind the comment.

Yet, somehow there still seems to be belief that such a comment was meant literally. Either that or someone just prefers to intentionally ignore those facts because its funner to belittle someones posts.

 

While this topic may have been pounded to a pulp...

 

I originally quoted the post you mention with a comment about Ben Revere not playing 2nd. That may or may not have been the impetus for later posts from others. I'll expand further on the point... As BlueSky has stated, it seems that Gardenhire likes certain things in his 2-hitter and many of those things also happen to be common in middle infielders.

 

Yes, I have looked and MI (not just second-baseman, which is part of why the "Play 2nd, Bat 2nd" snark irks me some...it's not even accurate so it comes off as lazy) have hit 2nd a HUGE amount since he's been the manager. BUT, the fact that Revere was almost always there when in the lineup just last year (and that there were even times when Mauer has been used there for not-tiny stretches) shows if he thinks there is reason to have someone else there, then he'll do it.

 

I think Mauer third is fine, in general, but given the people likely on the roster this year my preference would be that he hits second. If the spring training lineup with Dozier hitting there leaks into the season, I'll be disappointed.