BaseballAmerica top 100 drops today

[PseudoSABR]

But I believe in the bat ultimately and think Rosario could wind up as a Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Markakis or David Murphy type, a corner outfielder who hits for high average, hits a lot of doubles, draws walks and is an above-average offensive player despite average home run power.

Imagine, if that plays at 2nd base. Nice.

[CharacterGroove]

It has Hicks as a 55 for speed???

 

That surprised me as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Someone could certainly make the case, but Prospect Rankings generally have very little to do with actual on-field production. It's about upside. Now, I think Arcia has All-Star upside, but Buxton and Sano's upside is higher.

 

And this right here is the biggest problem with prospecting. Results matter, and ignoring them in favor of new guys from a historically weak draft seems foolish.

[drjim]

And this right here is the biggest problem with prospecting. Results matter, and ignoring them in favor of new guys from a historically weak draft seems foolish.

 

But the problem is that you seem to imply that looking at boxscores is superior to the opinions of every expert and scout in the game.

[Badsmerf]

But the problem is that you seem to imply that looking at boxscores is superior to the opinions of every expert and scout in the game.

Not at all. Opinions on guys makes a huge difference. For example, we always heard Eric Lis had too slow of a swing to hit well in the upper levels. I'm not sure if that was 100%, but he isn't to be found now. He had pretty good results, and if the scouts were high on him he'd still be moving through the organization. So yes, stats aren't the end all be all way to grade prospects. However, they just can't be ignored as often as they are. A guy like Arcia that puts up monster number at a high level deserves to be rated higher than someone like Buxton that is only rated on tools. The bust factor is too high of a probability for young prospects. You can argue that Buxton has the "tools" to be a superstar, but it is much much more likely he becomes an average MLB player at this point. While the probability that Arcia becomes a good MLB player is pretty good. Rating guys like Buxton so high just sets them up for failure. Delmon Young is a perfect example of being over-rated. He should have never ever been rated as high as he was. The first time I watched him play I was dumbfounded scouts once salivated over his "tools."

[gunnarthor]

Not at all. Opinions on guys makes a huge difference. For example, we always heard Eric Lis had too slow of a swing to hit well in the upper levels. I'm not sure if that was 100%, but he isn't to be found now. He had pretty good results, and if the scouts were high on him he'd still be moving through the organization. So yes, stats aren't the end all be all way to grade prospects. However, they just can't be ignored as often as they are. A guy like Arcia that puts up monster number at a high level deserves to be rated higher than someone like Buxton that is only rated on tools. The bust factor is too high of a probability for young prospects. You can argue that Buxton has the "tools" to be a superstar, but it is much much more likely he becomes an average MLB player at this point. While the probability that Arcia becomes a good MLB player is pretty good. Rating guys like Buxton so high just sets them up for failure. Delmon Young is a perfect example of being over-rated. He should have never ever been rated as high as he was. The first time I watched him play I was dumbfounded scouts once salivated over his "tools."

 

Young is also the exception and minor league ball had a nice article on why he failed. Mauer was the #7 prospect in baseball after 32 games in rookie ball - his tools were that good. Arcia performed well at AA and only 40 prospects in all of baseball have been rated higher. He's a good prospect. But his ceiling is still limited. BA did take into account his success which is why he is ranked ahead of superior tools guys like Addison Russell or our own Aaron Hicks. I don't think anyone is under appreciating him. I've pointed out before but the five professional ranking systems we fans have access to (BA, BP, Law, Sickels, Mayo) have him avg as the Twins 4th best prospect. All of them take into account results and tools. That ranking seems about right.

[PseudoSABR]

Let's put Arcia into some perspective. Here's a list of the non-up-the-middle defenders and non-pitching prospects (quick and dirty and lazy).

 

3 Oscar Taveras

4 Wil Myers

9 Miguel Sano

15 Christian Yelich

21 Nick Castellanos

22 Mike Olt

27 Jonathan Singleton

30 Anthony Rendon

34 Jorge Soler

41 Oswaldo Arcia

 

When comparing him to similarly tooled players, we see he's ranked tenth. Maybe we can make some quibbles here and there, but really Arcia's ranking isn't exactly the underestimate some people believe.

[Seth Stohs]

Good point. I am very comfortable with where they have Arcia. I'm really high on him, but I don't know that he should be any higher than he is.

[gunnarthor]

Let's put Arcia into some perspective. Here's a list of the non-up-the-middle defenders and non-pitching prospects (quick and dirty and lazy).

 

3 Oscar Taveras

4 Wil Myers

9 Miguel Sano

15 Christian Yelich

21 Nick Castellanos

22 Mike Olt

27 Jonathan Singleton

30 Anthony Rendon

34 Jorge Soler

41 Oswaldo Arcia

 

When comparing him to similarly tooled players, we see he's ranked tenth. Maybe we can make some quibbles here and there, but really Arcia's ranking isn't exactly the underestimate some people believe.

 

That's a pretty good point.

 

Was going to like that post but that doesn't seem to be possible. What happened to the like button?

[drjim]

Arcia's bat is not without flaws either. He ks more than you would like and has some struggles with lefties (unsurprisingly). His bat is ahead of Buxton right now but Buxton has a legit shot to close that gap. Plus, while Arcia is a decent athlete and legit rf profile, his speed, arm, and overall defense are not in the same league as Buxton. This is a significant factor in prospect rankings as well.

[Twins Twerp]

Arcia is the kind of prospect that doesn't rank high, but the kind that you KNOW will make it. He may not be a perrenial all-star, but he is going to give you a great bat. I would take a system full of Arcia's rather than a system full of "lofty, toolsy" guys who haven't put the tools together. Sometimes those guys win you the lottery, but sometimes those guys end up being punch lines. Arcia is going to hit close to .300 with 20+ homers. He is going to have a pretty good arm and is going to be below average fielder. Sounds like a pretty legit player to me.

 

For some reason, an entity like BaseballAmerica and Keith Law enjoy higher ceiling guys than sure thing guys. If you look at baseballamerica's list, the top is full of guys who were drafted last year (Buxton, Gausman, etc.). Towards the bottom of the top 100 you see much safer picks with guys who are close to the bigs and some who have even seen some time. If I were to do a list, I would lean more towards the Major League ready guys and less towards the projection type guys in low A.

[cmb0252]

Alex wimmers was a safer, close to the bigs type, and how has that turned out? The reason why arcia is so "low", even though 41 is pretty darn good, has more to do with his position than his ability. Heck, the only right fielders I count ahead of arcia are myers, taveras, soler and yelchy so he is in some pretty elite company.

 

The fact is a .300ba/20~hr average right fielder is a ~2 WAR player. While a Cf, Ss, or C with half the bat of Arcia is a ~4 WAR player. while WAR is a very flawed stat even the eye test can tell you elite guys up the middle are significantly harder to find.

[Mike Sixel]

How is 41 in the entire minors low?

[cmb0252]

How is 41 in the entire minors low?

 

Exactly. 41 in the entire minors for a right fielder is anything but low.

[Badsmerf]

Psuedo you brought up a very good point. I'm not going to fully retract my statement since I'm obviously higher on Arcia than many. I think he should be in the top 20. For the 100th time, his defense is above average, that makes a big difference. Positions matter little to me since most of the CF or SS prospects don't stick there.... obviously why there is a shortage of quality SS and CF in the MLB right now. I believe Arcia could easily be a 5 WAR player, putting him in the top 11 OF in the MLB (based on WAR alone). So yes, I think 41 is too low.

[glunn]

A few things I noticed from the list - there were only six 80 (the highest ranking) given out, and two are Twins prospects.

 

Gerrit Cole's (Pirates P) Fastball

Miguel Sano's Power

Byron Buxton's Speed

Billy Hamilton's (Reds of/ss) Speed

Bruce Rendon's (Tigers P) Fastball

Roman Quinn's (Phillies SS) Speed

 

Pretty cool that the only 80 for Power was Sano's.

 

Anybody else surprised that Sano got a 75 for his arm? I saw him last year when Beloit visited Cedar Rapids, he definetly has a cannon, but a 75? Higher than Buxton or Hicks?

 

Also, Sano was the only player with two separate ratings greater than 70.

 

Can't wait to go down to CR this summer. Great park, cheap tickets, cheap beer, players are accessible, I can't encourage people to make the trip enough!

 

With his speed and arm, maybe Sano should end up in right field?

[PseudoSABR]

Psuedo you brought up a very good point. I'm not going to fully retract my statement since I'm obviously higher on Arcia than many. I think he should be in the top 20. For the 100th time, his defense is above average, that makes a big difference. Positions matter little to me since most of the CF or SS prospects don't stick there.... obviously why there is a shortage of quality SS and CF in the MLB right now. I believe Arcia could easily be a 5 WAR player, putting him in the top 11 OF in the MLB (based on WAR alone). So yes, I think 41 is too low.

I also think his bat is a bit better than BA is letting on, as well. But when looking at the list of the guys above him, it's fair company.

 

Scouting--and I'm aware of the blanket generalization I'm about to make--just loves tools. They also love pedigree (which might as well be defined as "how long have we liked this guy"). So I understand why some higher profile, skill position players get higher ranking on prospect lists--whether those players end up being worth so much in the ML is a different question.

 

Arcia was relatively unknown to the prominent, public scouting community (maybe my memory is wrong on this..) before he started to produce. He's a good defender, but he doesn't have lights out speed or a cannon arm or Sano power. He's got an incredible bat so far which will always be iffyier for scouts to quantify than any physical skill; everyone just seems scared to believe in him.

[iastfan112]

I also think his bat is a bit better than BA is letting on, as well. But when looking at the list of the guys above him, it's fair company.

 

Scouting--and I'm aware of the blanket generalization I'm about to make--just loves tools. They also love pedigree (which might as well be defined as "how long have we liked this guy"). So I understand why some higher profile, skill position players get higher ranking on prospect lists--whether those players end up being worth so much in the ML is a different question.

 

Arcia was relatively unknown to the prominent, public scouting community (maybe my memory is wrong on this..) before he started to produce. He's a good defender, but he doesn't have lights out speed or a cannon arm or Sano power. He's got an incredible bat so far which will always be iffyier for scouts to quantify than any physical skill; everyone just seems scared to believe in him.

 

All I remember is that Sickels loved him.

[Steve Lein]

For the 100th time, his defense is above average, that makes a big difference. Positions matter little to me since most of the CF or SS prospects don't stick there....

 

I think you need to temper what your definition of "above average" defense is a bit. In Arcia's case, everything I see and read says he has enough arm for RF, but not really a "cannon," and will not impress anyone with his range or speed. Having the arm is nice, but we all know it has a far less impact on outfield defense than actually being able to run down fly balls. I'd put exactly "average" as his peak (which is to say if everything develops perfectly for him there, he will be an average RF defender)

 

I highly recommend this site, run by Mark Anderson of Scout.com, and here's his write-up on Arcia: http://baseballprospectnation.com/2013/01/21/scouting-report-oswaldo-arcia-of/

 

As for your second sentence in my quote snippet, that's why the guys that do stay there (and have the other "tools" besides the defense to stay there) become the blue-chipper-top-10-in-all-of-baseball-prospects, so sorry, but position does matter.

 

But I agree with the others, being ranked where Arcia is as a RF is not a slight to him and what he's done at all. It shows that most everyone believes he has a "plus" bat.

[cmb0252]

Easily a 5 WAR player? Was there even a single 5 WAR right fielder last year? By WAR standards, which always ham strings RF/1B value, he would have to hit .330 ba/35+ homers/1000 OPS and be a well above defender. While i havent read that being his ceiling, i hope you are right! That. Would. Be. AWESOME. About the well above average defender part...

 

Badsmerf where did you see he was an above average defender? I know when he was 18 he played a little center field but that's a long time ago. BA and Mayo have him at 50 defense because while he reads the ball well and has a plus arm he is a 40 runner. I can't find defensive grades from law/sickles, they are always too busy talking about his sexy swing, but maybe you read different? Maybe Seth had him at an above average defender? I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just saying I haven't read it.

 

Either way, I hope you are right and he becomes a top 25 player in all of baseball because our twinkies sure could use one.

[Twins Twerp]

A little off topic, but what is the Twins International cap for this year? Everyone had the same cap this year but I have read multiple times that this year and in future years the cap will be inversly related to teams records. That would obviously put the Twins at having the 4th highest cap on international signing. The penalties will be stiff for teams that go over that cap (the Rangers are an example as they were WAY over the cap).

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think you need to temper what your definition of "above average" defense is a bit. In Arcia's case, everything I see and read says he has enough arm for RF, but not really a "cannon," and will not impress anyone with his range or speed. Having the arm is nice, but we all know it has a far less impact on outfield defense than actually being able to run down fly balls. I'd put exactly "average" as his peak (which is to say if everything develops perfectly for him there, he will be an average RF defender)

 

I highly recommend this site, run by Mark Anderson of Scout.com, and here's his write-up on Arcia: http://baseballprospectnation.com/2013/01/21/scouting-report-oswaldo-arcia-of/

 

As for your second sentence in my quote snippet, that's why the guys that do stay there (and have the other "tools" besides the defense to stay there) become the blue-chipper-top-10-in-all-of-baseball-prospects, so sorry, but position does matter.

 

But I agree with the others, being ranked where Arcia is as a RF is not a slight to him and what he's done at all. It shows that most everyone believes he has a "plus" bat.

 

He was a centerfielder until he had to share an outfield with Aaron Hicks. I don't expect him to be Ben Revere in the corner, but for people to expect him to be an above average outfielder is hardly unrealistic. Perhaps he will continue to fill out and slow down a bit, who knows, but right now, he should slot into right as an above average defender. If Benson can work his bat out, he could be a gold glove calliber in left... With Hicks in center, that outfield defense is looking pretty good for the remainder of the decade.

[Badsmerf]

Steve, a simple google search with Oswaldo Arcia and defense will provide you with numerous results stating he is an above average defender whom might taper to an average defender once he fills out. Considering he is 22, I think he has 5 years or so of being an above average fielder (RF to be specific). When his range starts to drop off hopefully he will be hitting 30+ HR's a year to make up for it.