Article: The Road to Rebuild: Trading Away Assets

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1356-The-Road-to-Rebuild-Trading-Away-Assets

[glunn]

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

[LoganJones]

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

Absolutely. It looks like Miguel Sano will be the next great Twins first baseman, but that's still probably 3 years away. Give Morneau a 2-3 year extension this summer if he's hitting. Justin provides the team a lot more potential for value by being on their roster and healthy than he does in a potential trade.

 

Willingham makes a lot more sense to be traded, as the team picking him up will be getting a cost controlled slugger for a year and a half. I could see Baltimore being very interested if their season breaks good again this year. Or perhaps Texas, who will likely be in the need for some RH bats once Nellie Cruz gets suspended and or hurt like he does. Heck, they could probably use him already.

[snepp]

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

 

California math?

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Absolutely. It looks like Miguel Sano will be the next great Twins first baseman, but that's still probably 3 years away. Give Morneau a 2-3 year extension this summer if he's hitting. Justin provides the team a lot more potential for value by being on their roster and healthy than he does in a potential trade.

 

Willingham makes a lot more sense to be traded, as the team picking him up will be getting a cost controlled slugger for a year and a half. I could see Baltimore being very interested if their season breaks good again this year. Or perhaps Texas, who will likely be in the need for some RH bats once Nellie Cruz gets suspended and or hurt like he does. Heck, they could probably use him already.

 

I agree about Willingham. I think this off-season represented his highest trade value. Two years of a power bat at $7 million/year is a screaming value given the contracts given other over-30 OFs like Cody Ross and Shane Victorino. Unfortunately, it appears the off-season dealing is all but over. There are very few obvious trades for Willingham at this stage. So, I am hopeful Willingham is healthy and productive in the first half and brings back a prospect mid-summer.

[ThePuck]

California math?

 

Nope...if it was California math, he'd have written 'Morneau will be age 32'...and he would have gotten the birth month right as well... :-)

[B Richard]

Running a shrewd business demands staying as emotionally neutral as possible. Everyone has their price.

[70charger]

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

 

It might depend on Parmelee. Specifically, whether he hits and can take over for Morneau at 1B without much of a dropoff, and/or whether he's a wreck in the outfield making him necessarily a 1B. I think there are some moving parts here.

 

On the other hand, if the Twins aren't willing to commit years to a healthy and productive Morneau, they can always given him a qualifying offer at roughly the same amount they're paying him now. If he comes back, one more year of Morneau; if not, draft pick.

[Rosterman]

A decision on Morneau is the major move still this offseason. If he looks like he really wants to test the free-agent marketplace, jettison him. You'll get something more now than later, giving another team the opportunity to extend him or make him a qualifying offer. I'm for resigning Morneau to a team friendly 203 year extension with a 4th year option. He can stay a part of the Twins and clearly move into the DH role down-the-line. You don;t develop minor league prospects to DH. Once the season starts, his price becomes $13+ million or nothing.

[chuchadoro]

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

 

Maybe if the Twins org made any effort at fielding a competitive team in the near future. The fact that the Twins did nothing to address the disasters that are their rotation and middle infield leads any reasonable person to conclude that the Twins don't concern themselves with such things.

[PseudoSABR]

What is the upper limit for a Morneau extension that we would be willing to live with? LaRouche's recent deal provides some context (LaRoche obtains $10MM in 2013, $12MM in 2014 and a $2MM buyout for a 2015 mutual option).

[Willihammer]

Every offseason there are cheap 1B and DH bats, so I don't like an extension. Also we have paid for enough downtime with the concussions already. If Morneau has a good year, maybe the Twins make a qualifying offer but if he declines then you take the comp pick and let Mauer/Parmelee/Doumit/Plouffe/cheap FA play 1B. This team has enough DH stiffs already. Save the money for skill players who can hit. Or pitching.

[LoganJones]

A decision on Morneau is the major move still this offseason. If he looks like he really wants to test the free-agent marketplace, jettison him. You'll get something more now than later, giving another team the opportunity to extend him or make him a qualifying offer. I'm for resigning Morneau to a team friendly 203 year extension with a 4th year option. He can stay a part of the Twins and clearly move into the DH role down-the-line. You don;t develop minor league prospects to DH. Once the season starts, his price becomes $13+ million or nothing.

 

Important to note: you can't do the qualifying offer thing to players you acquired mid season.

[LoganJones]

Every offseason there are cheap 1B and DH bats, so I don't like an extension. Also we have paid for enough downtime with the concussions already. If Morneau has a good year, maybe the Twins make a qualifying offer but if he declines then you take the comp pick and let Mauer/Parmelee/Doumit/Plouffe/cheap FA play 1B. This team has enough DH stiffs already. Save the money for skill players who can hit. Or pitching.

 

Probably a good route to take, really.

[drjim]

I agree about Willingham. I think this off-season represented his highest trade value. Two years of a power bat at $7 million/year is a screaming value given the contracts given other over-30 OFs like Cody Ross and Shane Victorino. Unfortunately, it appears the off-season dealing is all but over. There are very few obvious trades for Willingham at this stage. So, I am hopeful Willingham is healthy and productive in the first half and brings back a prospect mid-summer.

 

I disagree a little on the value of Willingham being highest in the offseason. Corner bats were available only for money. Teams would prefee that over giving up prospects.

 

He should have the same or even more value at the deadline as teams need a final piece. Obviously health is a risk but that is also why his value might be lower right now than we think. Plus he has good value to the Twins right now.

[mcrow]

I think the answer in both cases is they would like to keep them if the price and years are right. Less so with Willingham given the depth in the system in the OF.

 

Justin's performance after the AS break last year is encouraging by posting numbers close to his career averages before the health issues. However, he is going to be 32 early in the season. If he has a big year this year it won't be the yearly salary that's a problem as much as the number of years he might command. at 32 do you want to commit to more than 2-3 years?

 

Same goes for Willingham. He's getting to an age where you debate wether it is best for the team to have the caliber of hitter he is now for maybe a year or two more or if you are better trading for some prospects.

 

The problem with both of these guys could be that they would demand longer term contracts than make sense for a young, up and coming team. I suppose a lot of this will depend on if the Twins are competitive or not this year as well.

[Mike Sixel]

If pitchers and other free agents supposedly will mot sign here, why would Morneau? At some point, he might feel like Torii and Johan did, that Ryan never plays for the present.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

Maybe if the Twins org made any effort at fielding a competitive team in the near future. The fact that the Twins did nothing to address the disasters that are their rotation and middle infield leads any reasonable person to conclude that the Twins don't concern themselves with such things.

 

The best option in the MI this offseason? Maicer Izturis? Marco Scutaro? Scutaro is 37 and Izturis has 1.5 WAR over the last 2 years. The rest of the FA list looks like crap. If there were great, young options that would fit with the org's timeline of expected comepetitiveness - good, great, grand - EVERYONE ON THE BUS. But there weren't. And this is what a re-build feels like.

[PseudoSABR]

If pitchers and other free agents supposedly will mot sign here,

Supposedly is the key word. If the Twins offer enough money players will sign (and have signed) here.

[johnnydakota]

The best option in the MI this offseason? Maicer Izturis? Marco Scutaro? Scutaro is 37 and Izturis has 1.5 WAR over the last 2 years. The rest of the FA list looks like crap. If there were great, young options that would fit with the org's timeline of expected comepetitiveness - good, great, grand - EVERYONE ON THE BUS. But there weren't. And this is what a re-build feels like.

gee i would be happy with a 0 war, it better then what we had ...average is what we strive for here..at shortstop, why ? because it an improvment...

[Kwak]

What is the upper limit for a Morneau extension that we would be willing to live with? LaRouche's recent deal provides some context (LaRoche obtains $10MM in 2013, $12MM in 2014 and a $2MM buyout for a 2015 mutual option).

 

No offer. Anything the Twins offer amounts to an insult--either to Morneau or the fans who are forced to endure the lost seasons. Some stepped-up for '09 and '10 but the loss of the MVP Morneau from the lineup was part of the disaster. Many have posted, "What if...?" That question was sadly answered starting in late '09. The Twins are clearly in rebuild mode. I definately support having Morneau in the '13 lineup to provide some offense, for a team that will struggle to score, anything more than a 1-year contract of average MLB salary is way too risky. But that offer would be considered by Morneau as insulting, anything more is insulting to everyone else--Morneau's time has passed (sadly). Morneau can no longer be considered a cornerstone but rather only a complimentary cog in the machine. He needs to move on to his next team who will likely welcome him.

[Oxtung]

I think many posters are overvaluing Morneau's worth come next offseason. We are seeing this year that good players in their prime are struggling to find contracts after they've turned down qualifying offers. Justin will be turning 33, coming off of a few injury plagued years (obviously we have no idea what will happen in 2013), hasn't hit the ball particularly well in few years. I understand that many people think Justin will have a nice rebound year, I actually think he will as well, but the odds at this point of him being worthy of a qualifying offer are not great. The odds that he turns down said qualifying offer and another team is willing to forfeit a first round pick for him I think is very small.

 

To me, if the Twins need to make a decision on his extension early in the season and if they decide to part ways he needs to be traded at the deadline. Of course I would also eat a large portion of his salary if that bring back more of value in return but we all know that is not the Twins way.