Marcum To Mets

[ThePuck]

Yes. Was about to put up a link and that quote earlier. The open and implied disdain for the Twins' free agency offseason seem to grow every week.

 

And look, it's not just pessimistic Twins fans that feel that way...

[panolo]

All of it, so true. And adding Marcum, as well, for even better reasons, would be even a more significant upgrade over the AAAAs.

 

Where are you going here?

 

The Twins have plenty of dollars available, have the worst pitching staff in all of baseball, and we are still(?) worried about 3 filler guys (throw DeVries into the mix, too) who came to, (and will likely leave from), the Twins as probably their last major league stop. From AA on up, there are only, maybe, 3 other guys who end up in mostly remote consideration for a future #5 SP role.

 

I was pro Marcum. Just the amount of butt hurt over a guy who was going to give you (possibly) one year and be gone for better riches if he pitched well is insane.

 

I'm resigned to the fact we will not compete next year and I don't think he brought us that much closer to competing. My excitement with the upcoming year is hopefully seeing some progression out of guys like Hendricks, Parmelee, Plouffe. Hopefully some extensive time for Gibson, Arcia, Hicks, etc. Seeing how Worley does against AL hitters.

 

And again I don't think it was about $$$. I understand we have a "projected" payroll and there are no rules saying that TR has to spend $100mil.

[TheLeviathan]

And look, it's not just pessimistic Twins fans that feel that way...

 

Right now old nurse, 70charger, and others are scolding them for their unnecessary negativity and their inability to understand the vast conspiracy by baseball FAs against our poor, misunderstood ball club.

[jokin]

I was pro Marcum. Just the amount of butt hurt over a guy who was going to give you (possibly) one year and be gone for better riches if he pitched well is insane.

I'm resigned to the fact we will not compete next year and I don't think he brought us that much closer to competing. My excitement with the upcoming year is hopefully seeing some progression out of guys like Hendricks, Parmelee, Plouffe. Hopefully some extensive time for Gibson, Arcia, Hicks, etc. Seeing how Worley does against AL hitters.

 

And again I don't think it was about $$$. I understand we have a "projected" payroll and there are no rules saying that TR has to spend $100mil.

 

Actually, the definition of insanity is "doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results". Call me crazy, but I come down on the side of Albert Einstein over TR and Panolo on this matter.

[jokin]

Right now old nurse, 70charger, and others are scolding them for their unnecessary negativity and their inability to understand the vast conspiracy by baseball FAs against our poor, misunderstood ball club.

 

Is that where they are? What with their conspicuous lack of rah-rah chatter today, I thought they'd gone to ground, knowing all the "personal insults" they'd have to yet again, endure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not how the game works in mid market baseball and you know that. The Twins don't just jettison folks. I have often wondered why someone has stayed at a level too long and not gotten a shot at moving up. Lotsa times it's a philosophical issue and many others there simply isn't enough room at the next level.

 

That's exactly how it works. The Twins, like every other team, do not prioritize guys in their late 20s who haven't been dominant at any level. Ryan is not going to let Sam-freakin-Deduno block May or Meyer if he steamrolls through the low minors. You don't let 30 year olds get in the way of early 20s flamethrowers. That's just common sense and Ryan, despite my differences of opinion with him, is not a moron.

[edavis0308]

No more bold and thank you for the answer. You are at least the first person to say that the Twins have never offered equal pay or top dollar during the last 28 years. Extremely hard to believe, but just as possible as FAs not wanting to come to the cold of the Northern states.

 

Top college players generally come from warmer climate (SEC / ACC / PAC / Etc.) universities. Players generally want warm weather cities to play out their careers if given the choice. That's my view as to why players don't come. Dome or no dome.

 

Hey its all good. Guys around here take notice when its reported when a guy signed that the Twins don't make an offer to. If this offseason is an indicator.. the overall results would blow your mind. They literally don't offer money to any healthy quality pitching.

[Kwak]

I guess we all need to wear tin-foil hats and believe that FA prices are set at GM meetings and that any team that "overpays" has to pay a penalty to MLB. The Twins have been conditioned to strictly adhere to this policy because the Pohlads refuse to return money to the "shared revenue kitty". The end result is that the Twins never offer more than "the price" to FAs and therefore are routinely refused by the "better" players because they refuse to play in East Dakota unless they are "overpaid". We know this because Ryan has stated the Twins won't "overpay" and that our location is deemed undesireable by MLB players (because we are Twins fans and are familar with the area).

There! It's out in the open--a giant conspiracy that ensures that quality FAs won't sign with the Twins. [Though it doesn't explain why Twins players {not from here} sign lucrative contract extentions]--unless the conspiracy is even greater to include collusion with all FAs that make it unlikely that FAs (those of any quality) to sign with a new team! This policy does not apply to FAs assigned to "The Dumpster" or "The Leper Colony".

[twinsnorth49]

I guess we all need to wear tin-foil hats and believe that FA prices are set at GM meetings and that any team that "overpays" has to pay a penalty to MLB. The Twins have been conditioned to strictly adhere to this policy because the Pohlads refuse to return money to the "shared revenue kitty". The end result is that the Twins never offer more than "the price" to FAs and therefore are routinely refused by the "better" players because they refuse to play in East Dakota unless they are "overpaid". We know this because Ryan has stated the Twins won't "overpay" and that our location is deemed undesireable by MLB players (because we are Twins fans and are familar with the area).

There! It's out in the open--a giant conspiracy that ensures that quality FAs won't sign with the Twins. [Though it doesn't explain why Twins players {not from here} sign lucrative contract extentions]--unless the conspiracy is even greater to include collusion with all FAs that make it unlikely that FAs (those of any quality) to sign with a new team! This policy does not apply to FAs assigned to "The Dumpster" or "The Leper Colony".

 

Wait until Alex Jones finds out about this!

[johnnydakota]

Wait until Alex Jones finds out about this!

 

kwak kwak shuck a duck =)

[panolo]

That's exactly how it works. The Twins, like every other team, do not prioritize guys in their late 20s who haven't been dominant at any level. Ryan is not going to let Sam-freakin-Deduno block May or Meyer if he steamrolls through the low minors. You don't let 30 year olds get in the way of early 20s flamethrowers. That's just common sense and Ryan, despite my differences of opinion with him, is not a moron.

 

 

Of course you aren't blocking your #1 and #2 pitching prospect. Which isn't even close to what I said.

[FrodaddyG]

Of course you aren't blocking your #1 and #2 pitching prospect. Which isn't even close to what I said.

The point is, guys like Deduno aren't blocking ANYONE who performs halfway decent, not just Meyer or May. If half the AA rotation throws lights out the first few months of the season, not one of them will be stifled by Deduno being on the AAA roster. They will replace him on it in a heartbeat.

[old nurse]

Jack Morris, and he was paid as one of the top pitchers too.

 

Without knowing the bonus money, if the Mets gave Marcum $4 million, are you actually trying to say he wouldn't have come to the Twins for $6 million? That's ludicris and the players union would put up a stink if he did that, just as they would if David Price took a 33% discouont to stay with Tampa Bay.

 

P.S. Just read your last two lines. What did money have to do with Justin Upton? He is already under contract, if anything, that proves that he had the luxery to be picky about his destination because he had ALREADY been paid.

Like many contracts in baseball Upton had a limited no trade clause. He, like many others were able to negotiate their ability to be picky. They are usually picky about going to losing teams.

[old nurse]

I think it's even more telling that the Mets passed on Pelfrey!

 

Marcum could be more risky, but he's not coming off of September TJ (Pelfrey) and his last year of pitching effectiveness wasn't 2009 (Harden, w/ catastrophic shoulder surgery overlooming any potential comeback) or being extremely sucky for an entire career (Correia).

.

 

TJ was early May

Pelfrey made 5.7 million last year. Of course the Mets non tendered that. Given his first couple years in the majors, how much of a raise do you think Boras could have won?

[old nurse]

The bar is set extremely low. Just better isn't good enough. Significantly better is what we need.

Yes the Twins need significantly better. That is why it baffles me why these people have been so gung-ho on all of the third tier free agents. Marcum is not a third tier.

[jokin]

TJ was early May

Pelfrey made 5.7 million last year. Of course the Mets non tendered that. Given his first couple years in the majors, how much of a raise do you think Boras could have won?

 

Metaphor Mixmaster strikes again.

 

Hard to know why I bother, but the argument was why Pelfrey would leave the big market and big opportunity on a team in desperate need of pitching. News flash, guys who get non-tendered often re-sign with their old clubs, sometimes at a discount. The Mets chose to pursue Marcum and decline on Pelfrey, the Twins chose to pursue Pelfrey and decline on Marcum, both signed at the same base salary, First year after TJ historical results suggests the Twins, with their 1-year deal with no team option on year 2, took on more risk than the Mets. It's really not hard to ascertain which team played the odds for success out of their deals better.

 

Mea Culpa on the TJ date, too many google searches for TJ dates for prospective Twins pitchers this offseason.

That still leaves it likely that Pelfrey is unable to start out in the rotation and puts a big question mark about when he might regain his career-level of effectiveness.

[nicksaviking]

 

Mea Culpa on the TJ date

 

Shame on you for admitting you were incorrect when faced with evidence contrary to your original premise. Do you not know that debate in this age is based entirely on stubbornly holding fast to every word you say regardless of any and all evidence showing you were wrong?

[Guest USAFChief]

Of course you aren't blocking your #1 and #2 pitching prospect. Which isn't even close to what I said.

Then who ARE you blocking? And what does it matter anyway, even if your, um, questionable theory is correct?

[drjim]

Metaphor Mixmaster strikes again.

 

Hard to know why I bother, but the argument was why Pelfrey would leave the big market and big opportunity on a team in desperate need of pitching. News flash, guys who get non-tendered often re-sign with their old clubs, sometimes at a discount. The Mets chose to pursue Marcum and decline on Pelfrey, the Twins chose to pursue Pelfrey and decline on Marcum, both signed at the same base salary, First year after TJ historical results suggests the Twins, with their 1-year deal with no team option on year 2, took on more risk than the Mets. It's really not hard to ascertain which team played the odds for success out of their deals better.

 

Mea Culpa on the TJ date, too many google searches for TJ dates for prospective Twins pitchers this offseason.

That still leaves it likely that Pelfrey is unable to start out in the rotation and puts a big question mark about when he might regain his career-level of effectiveness.

 

Pelfrey probably left the Mets for many the same sort of reasons that Baker left the Twins. Despite your news flash, it is pretty uncommon for players to stay on teams if they have to take a pay cut unless it is done either before the season ends or at the end of the offseason (when there are few other options).

[FrodaddyG]

Then who ARE you blocking? And what does it matter anyway, even if your, um, questionable theory is correct?

Anyone from #3 on down, I guess.

[jokin]

it is pretty uncommon for players to stay on teams if they have to take a pay cut unless it is done either before the season ends or at the end of the offseason (when there are few other options).

 

Works both ways. "Few other options" must have been where Pelfrey was then already, for him to jump on such an early low-ball offer from a crummy team like the Twins, and with far more "frozen tundra" headaches to deal with and far fewer "cultural amenities" and "endorsement opportunities" in the Big Apple- ahh, Minneapolis, a cold Omaha, indeed.

[Kwak]

"Endorsement opportunites". Yes I have seen some commercials for Mauer, for Jeter, and for some retired players (Hernandez and R. Johnson) but I really can't think of any others. Plus, all of these guys were from the "top-of-the-mountain" so to speak. Locally, Hrbek did one-or-two commercials, but that's it. When I think of "endorsements" I think of shoes, clothes, golf clubs, cars--deals that pay hundreds of thousands or millions per year, not standing next to Joe of Joe Schmo's Heating and Cooling. I really don't think baseball players cash-in on this stuff much--especially compared to the other sports.

[twinsnorth49]

"Endorsement opportunites". Yes I have seen some commercials for Mauer, for Jeter, and for some retired players (Hernandez and R. Johnson) but I really can't think of any others. Plus, all of these guys were from the "top-of-the-mountain" so to speak. Locally, Hrbek did one-or-two commercials, but that's it. When I think of "endorsements" I think of shoes, clothes, golf clubs, cars--deals that pay hundreds of thousands or millions per year, not standing next to Joe of Joe Schmo's Heating and Cooling. I really don't think baseball players cash-in on this stuff much--especially compared to the other sports.

 

I agree, baseball endorsements tend to be local, not national or global. A player can just as easily get an endorement deal from ACME in Minnesota or Chicago or Milwaukee.

 

Of course there are always exceptions, who can forget Palmiero's infamous "Works for me" quote, while plugging Viagara (although now we know why it had to), and of course one of the most famous endorsements of all time when Pete Rose was robbed of a sure HR off a 12 year old, by none other than the jug of Kool-Aid guy......what a catch!!!

 

Here's an article from a few year's back that pretty much supports what you're saying. It's an odd phenomenon.

 

SportsBiz: Why advertisers shun baseball - Business - Sports Biz | NBC News

[panolo]

Then who ARE you blocking? And what does it matter anyway, even if your, um, questionable theory is correct?

 

 

I said the Twins don't jettison arms. If you have guys like Deduno, Walters, etc. are taking up a roster spot at AAA they obviously are taking a spot that could be used for a younger player to try his hand.

 

Over half of the starters at Rochester last year were 27 or older. For the most part these older arms don't have a revelation and start pitching well enough to earn a ML roster spot unless something like a bullpen switch happens. In general the Twins have been at the top for Minor League AB's and Minor League IP before promotion.

 

I'm sure the last year or two the lack of organizational depth has contributed to this but IMO it has been this way for 15 years.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

It's the chicken. Actuality is logically prior to potency.

 

Wow! It amazes how this forum really is full of true geniuses.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

The only thing more ridiculous than trying to project win totals for 2013 is trying to project win totals beyond 2013.

 

I've linked to this before, but here it is again. A compilation of 5 projections going back 2 years.https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TWNCNWNIVHA1NVk/edit

 

Something to think about, is how actual wins have compared to pythagoran wins (ie. (runs scored)^1.83 / ((runs scored)^1.83 + (runs allowed)^1.83). The standard deviation over this period is 3.85 wins. Meaning, about 5 teams every year can be counted on to finish 4 games or worse than their pythagorean record. In the same way, 5 seemingly random teams will finish 4 games or better than their pythagorean record.

 

So if the Tigers are a 87 win team again, and the Twins are a 68 win team again (by Pythagorean record), there's about a 1.4% chance that the Twins finish at 73 wins or better, and the Tigers finish at 82 wins, or worse. And there's a .62% chance the Twins finish 8 games better than their Pythagorean record, while the Tigers finish 7 games worse - 76 wins to 80 wins. And that's with no improvement from the Twins roster whatsoever (or decline), and no improvement or decline overall from the Tigers team either over last year.

 

If the Twins improve their pythagorean record by just 5 wins, and the Tigers repeat their 87 pythagorean wins, then there is a small but real chance the Twins steal the division just by shear random pythagorean luck.

 

If the Twins post a pythagorean record of 78, that is, ten games better than 2012, as Gunnarthor suggests the Twins would by simply eliminating the 80 lousy starts by our AAA guys and replace them with 80 starts of replacement level (0 WAR) production, then the Twins are looking at roughly a 4% chance of posting an actual win total that's higher than any 87 Pythagorean win team.

 

That's incredible. You just blew my mind.