Did Nelson Cruz Start to Decline at the End of 2020?

[Cooper Carlson]

The Twins finally brought back Nelson Cruz on a one year deal. The man simply doesn't age as he will be 41 at the end of the season. Is it actually true that he isn't slowing down? Come find out!At the end of the short 2020 season, it seemed like Nelson Cruz might have finally been slowing down a bit. His numbers took a dip as the season progressed, but was age catching up to him or was he just in a bit of an unlucky slump?

 

Cruz played 53 total games in 2020, so here are his splits broken into three parts. The first 18 games, the next 18, then the final 17 to reach 53.

• First 18: .328/.392/.552 (.944), 4 HR, 27.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 158 wRC+
• Next 18: .328/.451/.828 (1.278), 9 HR, 24 K%, 15.5 BB%, 226 wRC+
• Final 17: .250/.348/.417 (.764), 3 HR, 30.4 K%, 13.0 BB%, 108 wRC+

It's clear that Cruz dropped off quite a bit in the final third of the season, but maybe it was just due to some very bad luck. Looking at a couple of graphs, the numbers seem to go against each other.

 

Using xSLG, a metric that attempts to determine slugging percentage by taking exit velocity and launch angle and determining if a batted ball should be a single, double, triple, or home run, Cruz declined greatly near the end.

Download attachment: xSLG.png

 

That's not great. What's weird is if you then think "well he must have stopped hitting the ball hard," you're wrong. He actually hit the ball harder as the season progressed.

 

Download attachment: Screenshot 2021-02-03 141338.png

 

That doesn't make much sense, so I dug further to see if I could find anything convincing.

 

Near the end his fly balls decreased but his line drives increased so that might explain the home run and slugging dip. That shouldn't be a concern, as long as he continues to hit the ball hard the fly balls will return.

 

Basically what I have concluded is a very boring, stupid answer to the question of whether or not Cruz is falling off due to age ... I don't think so?

 

The shortened season of 2020 didn't give us clear answers to this. The sample is just so small that the stats cancel each other out. The Twins obviously have faith that Cruz will continue to be a productive player, so we should trust them.

 

There will be a day that Cruz can no longer be a productive player, but we'll all be dead by then.

 

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[ashbury]

Cooper, during the period Jun 22 to Jul 11, 2010, during an otherwise fine season for Texas, Cruz put up an OPS of just .631. Can you run a similar analysis on those 18 games and figure out what in the heck was ailing him?

[Cody Pirkl]

FWIW, Cruz had that knee issue that he missed time with. I'd have assumed that it'd affect his exit velo but maybe not? Could certainly see a knee affecting launch angle though. Especially the ability to load back and get balls in the air.

[Nick Nelson]

"Basically what I have concluded is a very boring, stupid answer to the question of whether or not Cruz is falling off due to age ... I don't think so?"

The candor is delightful  

[Nick Nelson]

Also "Next 18: .328/.451/.828 (1.278), 9 HR, 24 K%, 15.5 BB%, 226 wRC+" lol so ridiculous

[Trov]

It is hard to say because his last 18 games were not like his first 36 does not mean he dropped off.  He was best bat in playoffs.  Every hitter has bad stretches.  He was not going to crush like he did.  If the season was full season there is no reason to think he was not going to bounce back after the 18 bad games.  The rest of the team stopped hitting too, which makes me think he was getting less to swing at, and he was pressing to make things happen more because the guys behind him were not getting it done on offense either. 

[IAMNFan]

Hopefully there will be an expanded roster this season so Cruz can play a little less early and be fresher for the push and post season.  I really believe it is make or break time for Rooker and a few others that will need AB's this season and less time for Cruz early could be just the ticket.

[nicksaviking]

Man, I'm just looking forward to a full season's worth of games again so our player evaluations can come with a more confident sample size.

[ashbury]

Man, I'm just looking forward to a full season's worth of games again so our player evaluations can come with a more confident sample size.