2021 Off-Season Thread

[cHawk]

On 7/14/2021 at 1:19 PM, nicksaviking said:

"I know I wrote earlier that the Vikings will have no chance to contend for the division if Rodgers stays in Green Bay. But let me walk that back a little. Because the Vikings have all the ingredients to be one of those squads that shakes off a "good-not-great" early designation and ends up making an actual deep playoff run."

I wonder how deep we’re talking here…

[Vanimal46]

25 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I wonder how deep we’re talking here…

I feel like being a homer since it’s pre-training camp and no injuries have occurred. If the OL and DL gels together, I think they could play in the NFC Championship game, and you’re on your own after that.

Rick Spielman and our cap guy Rob B had a great offseason. Addressing OL, DL, and CB. There’s still time and cap space left before training camp to sign additional needs. It’s been so long since our OL has been a strength, and I really hope it’s been addressed enough in the draft. I really liked the Darrisaw and Davis picks. 

I’m not a Kirk Cousins fan admittedly, but he’s never had the chance to play behind a good OL. If that unit is good, no more excuses for him not to elevate the team. 

The thing I’m really intrigued about this season is if the defense becomes a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. They have the ability to showcase a ton of pre-snap looks this season. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm pretty bullish on them as well.  I like the investments they've made and I think the team is much deeper than it was in the past.

[cHawk]

55 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I feel like being a homer since it’s pre-training camp and no injuries have occurred. If the OL and DL gels together, I think they could play in the NFC Championship game, and you’re on your own after that.

Rick Spielman and our cap guy Rob B had a great offseason. Addressing OL, DL, and CB. There’s still time and cap space left before training camp to sign additional needs. It’s been so long since our OL has been a strength, and I really hope it’s been addressed enough in the draft. I really liked the Darrisaw and Davis picks. 

I’m not a Kirk Cousins fan admittedly, but he’s never had the chance to play behind a good OL. If that unit is good, no more excuses for him not to elevate the team. 

The thing I’m really intrigued about this season is if the defense becomes a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. They have the ability to showcase a ton of pre-snap looks this season. 

I agree with this. I think the roster is set pretty well. The coaching staff will make the difference between NFCCG/Super Bowl (maybe??) and a Divisional/WC Round loss.

[Vanimal46]

42 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm pretty bullish on them as well.  I like the investments they've made and I think the team is much deeper than it was in the past.

My dirty mind is thinking about showing a 4-3 pre snap look then Hunter backs up and becomes a rushing LB opposite Barr. Having Pierce, Tomlinson, and Richardson on the line gives them the ability to switch and confuse opposing offenses. 

[Mike Sixel]

If they are reasonably healthy and don't win at least ten games, I'll be shocked. 

[TheLeviathan]

31 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

My dirty mind is thinking about showing a 4-3 pre snap look then Hunter backs up and becomes a rushing LB opposite Barr. Having Pierce, Tomlinson, and Richardson on the line gives them the ability to switch and confuse opposing offenses. 

Until Richardson was signed I was really skeptical that would happen.  Now I have significantly more confidence it will.  You can shift a 3-4 look in and out of an effective 4-3 with over/under adjustments.  

Stunting and blitzing is then a 5 man operation with the three big guys and Hunter and Barr and Wonnum moving all over.

My hesitation is that linebacker is our weakest group.

[cHawk]

I’ve noticed a lot of fans on other forums aren’t sold on the OL, particularly Bradbury. Although I do wonder how he would perform with competent LG and RG play.

[Danchat]

20 hours ago, cHawk said:

I’ve noticed a lot of fans on other forums aren’t sold on the OL, particularly Bradbury. Although I do wonder how he would perform with competent LG and RG play.

I completely get why, they didn't add a proven veteran and going to be relying on a bunch of prospects to solidify the unit, which includes Bradbury who is trending towards bust, and Cleveland who looked promising, but struggled with pass protection.

Here is a little snippet from an article from the Athletic 

Quote

Will Darrisaw and Davis win starting jobs?

Awhile back we looked at which positions generally adapted to the NFL quickest. Spoiler alert: It’s not offensive linemen.

The recent history of teams asking O-linemen to be difference makers right away has more misses than hits, especially when trying to block the world’s best pass rushers.

But if we consider a grade above 65 as being solid, the performances haven’t been a disaster across the board. Here’s the number of starting rookie linemen that scored above 65 pass blocking grade in the last five years.

2020: 5 of 14

2019: 5 of 13

2018: 7 of 13

2017: 4 of 7

2016: 7 of 13

Total: 33 of 66
 

I like Darrisaw and Davis as prospects, with with the odds of 1st and 3rd round picks panning out, it's going to be unlikely that they will both play well in their rookie seasons. 

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, Danchat said:

I completely get why, they didn't add a proven veteran and going to be relying on a bunch of prospects to solidify the unit, which includes Bradbury who is trending towards bust, and Cleveland who looked promising, but struggled with pass protection.

Here is a little snippet from an article from the Athletic 

I like Darrisaw and Davis as prospects, with with the odds of 1st and 3rd round picks panning out, it's going to be unlikely that they will both play well in their rookie seasons. 

Is there any way we can weight this based on what round they’re taken in? I wouldn’t want to put some 7th Rounder in the same category as Darrisaw. Neither of the two are “projects” like Bradbury.

Also don’t centers tend to take longer to develop than other positions on the line? And Cleveland played out of position on the right side. I think you’ll see him look a lot better on the left, where he belongs. 

[Danchat]

29 minutes ago, cHawk said:

Is there any way we can weight this based on what round they’re taken in? I wouldn’t want to put some 7th Rounder in the same category as Darrisaw. Neither of the two are “projects” like Bradbury.

Also don’t centers tend to take longer to develop than other positions on the line? And Cleveland played out of position on the right side. I think you’ll see him look a lot better on the left, where he belongs. 

The study would have only included rookies who started enough games, which would rule out most 5th-UDFA rookie O-linemen - this could actually cause an opposite affect, as I would assume only really good Day 3 rookies get starting opportunities (see 2020 6th NE's G Michael Onwenu), barring several injuries.

Here is a clip from another study on 1st round tackles for a Darrisaw comparison. This only takes into account the player's rookie year, not their whole career. See the link for more details:

Quote

2011
PLAYER	PICK	POS.	O/ALL GR	P/BLK	R/BLK	SNAPS
Tyron Smith	9	T	80.2	71.7	84.5	1040
Mike Pouncey	15	G (C)	73.0	66.6	72.9	1005
Nate Solder	17	T	68.3	59.2	79.4	862
Anthony Castonzo	22	T	68.9	73.3	61.9	693
Danny Watkins	23	G	63.6	66.9	64.2	787
James Carpenter	25	T (G)	52.6	48.4	63.0	578
Gabe Carimi	29	T	67.4	60.5	69.8	98
Derek Sherrod	32	T	54.6	59.4	59.7	110

Quote

After going through 2011-2020...

So what do we learn from all of this? It's already well established that drafting is difficult. There is no sure fire guaranteed can't miss prospect. Drafting a top 10 prospect isn't a sure fire thing, as 7 out of 17 guys in this study were underwhelming.

Overall, if we take an average from the last 10 years, 41.3% of our prospects graded out above 70 which is starter level by PFF metrics. If we lower the threshold to use 65 as a pass mark, then the number increases to 55.3% which is serviceable by rookie standards.
 

Quote

Based on these numbers:

Successful rookie tackles drafted in the 1st around where Darrisaw was or later

Justin Pugh
Bolles
Ramcsyk

Unsuccessful rookie tackles drafted in the 1st around where Darrisaw was or later
Carpenter
Carimi
Sherrod
James

Ogbuehi
Humphries
Wynn
Dillard
Howard
McGary
Wilson
Jackson
 

Link: https://purplepainforums.com/thread/4794/oc-analyzing-1st-round-ol?page=1

As for development times, I can't think of any articles that go into the differences between T/G/C, but I do know that Bradbury is 26 this year. He's not a young and raw prospect, he was supposed to be a "plug and play" center. I don't know if there is a solution for him getting blasted back in pass protection, even if he is helped by better guards.

As for Cleveland, I would guess playing on the left side would help, but the scouting reports did say he would be a bad fit at guard due to a lack of strength, which is something he did have problems with in pass protection. Evidently the Vikings think he can handle guard, so we shall see. There have been some examples in the past of OL playing well in positions that scouts didn't think they could handle, so I would not jump to conclusions yet.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

The study would have only included rookies who started enough games, which would rule out most 5th-UDFA rookie O-linemen - this could actually cause an opposite affect, as I would assume only really good Day 3 rookies get starting opportunities (see 2020 6th NE's G Michael Onwenu), barring several injuries.

Here is a clip from another study on 1st round tackles for a Darrisaw comparison. This only takes into account the player's rookie year, not their whole career. See the link for more details:

Link: https://purplepainforums.com/thread/4794/oc-analyzing-1st-round-ol?page=1

As for development times, I can't think of any articles that go into the differences between T/G/C, but I do know that Bradbury is 26 this year. He's not a young and raw prospect, he was supposed to be a "plug and play" center. I don't know if there is a solution for him getting blasted back in pass protection, even if he is helped by better guards.

As for Cleveland, I would guess playing on the left side would help, but the scouting reports did say he would be a bad fit at guard due to a lack of strength, which is something he did have problems with in pass protection. Evidently the Vikings think he can handle guard, so we shall see. There have been some examples in the past of OL playing well in positions that scouts didn't think they could handle, so I would not jump to conclusions yet.

I see. Based on this, I wonder where the OL would rank…

[Vanimal46]

A couple of weeks until training camp, and this still hasn’t been resolved. 

[TheLeviathan]

One advantage Wade Davis and Ezra Cleveland have is the incredibly low bar for guard play we have.  It'd be hard for them to be worse.

Speaking of unresolved.....Gladney?

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

One advantage Wade Davis and Ezra Cleveland have is the incredibly low bar for guard play we have.  It'd be hard for them to be worse.

Speaking of unresolved.....Gladney?

I read that Gladney’s court date is July 29th. So he will miss the start of training camp, if not more than that. 

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

A couple of weeks until training camp, and this still hasn’t been resolved. 

Wait what? I read somewhere that he’s coming back to GB: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/broncos/.amp/news/aaron-rodgers-return-packers-2021-nfl-rumors

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, cHawk said:

Wait what? I read somewhere that he’s coming back to GB: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/broncos/.amp/news/aaron-rodgers-return-packers-2021-nfl-rumors

He’s still under contract and has no choice but to report to GB if he wants to play. There’s still no indication whether he’s going to play or sit out. No one really knows what Rodgers wants out of this ordeal. Maybe he wants the GM fired, or the coach fired. Something’s still bothering him. 

[cHawk]

39 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

or the coach fired.

I highly doubt it’s LaFleur. He said he loves his teammates and coaches, but said nothing about Gutekunst.

[nicksaviking]

On 7/15/2021 at 5:45 PM, cHawk said:

I wonder how deep we’re talking here…

Well if they're a five win team, it's really hard to say. Probably only the NFC championship.

[nicksaviking]

45 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

He’s still under contract and has no choice but to report to GB if he wants to play. There’s still no indication whether he’s going to play or sit out. No one really knows what Rodgers wants out of this ordeal. Maybe he wants the GM fired, or the coach fired. Something’s still bothering him. 

Whether he comes back or not, this has all been such a big distraction and divisive moment for the fans and organization, I'm still feeling pretty good about season long dysfunction.

You know, despite pretty much three decades of GB success telling me otherwise.

[Danchat]

23 hours ago, cHawk said:

Is there any way we can weight this based on what round they’re taken in? I wouldn’t want to put some 7th Rounder in the same category as Darrisaw. Neither of the two are “projects” like Bradbury.

I just saw the perfect article for this, it goes over exactly what you were asking for here - how have centers drafted in the 1st-3rd rounds fared in their first three years in the NFL:

Quote

Conclusions:

- 5 out of 19 (26%) players had their best year in Year 1 (ie, Pat Elflein)
- 4 out of 19 (21%) players had significantly improved by Year 2 (ie, Frank Ragnow)
- 8 out of 19 (42%) players had significantly improved by Year 3 (ie, Maurkice Pouncey)
- 2 out of 19 (11%) players didn't really improve at all over their first 3 years in league (ie, Mason Cole)
- Of those 8 players that improved significantly in Year 3, 7 of them were drafted in 2014 or prior and only 1 (A Corbett) has done so recently
- In terms of pass-blocking (Bradbury's weakness), 13 out of 19 (68%) players improved their pass-blocking PFF grades by at least 5 pts form Year 1 to Year 3, but again, most of the players that fall into this category were players from 2008-2014

https://purplepainforums.com/thread/4809/bradbury-analysis-prove-turning-point

[nicksaviking]

So NFL media is claiming 14 teams are over 85% vaccinated.  I don't suppose one of those 14 are the Vikings?

Also, Florio did make a good point the other day.  The numbers might decrease once rosters are cut since it's more likely that the guys on the bubble would get vaccinated curry favor. 

[Vanimal46]

Worthwhile thread to read. The NFL is going to make the players hurt in the record column, AND their weekly paycheck if unvaccinated players cause a Covid outbreak on their teams. 

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

So NFL media is claiming 14 teams are over 85% vaccinated.  I don't suppose one of those 14 are the Vikings?

Fat chance. 

[cHawk]

Should they add a 3rd Wideout? IMO it wouldn’t hurt.

[Danchat]

7 hours ago, cHawk said:

Should they add a 3rd Wideout? IMO it wouldn’t hurt.

I don't see why not, but it seems all the guys they've put 1 year fliers on have went down in flames (Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Josh Doctson, Tajae Sharpe). DeDe Westbrook seems like the next logical name in that line... others available include Larry Fitzgerald, Alshon Jeffery, Danny Amendola, and Golden Tate.

[cHawk]

9 hours ago, Danchat said:

I don't see why not, but it seems all the guys they've put 1 year fliers on have went down in flames (Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Josh Doctson, Tajae Sharpe). DeDe Westbrook seems like the next logical name in that line... others available include Larry Fitzgerald, Alshon Jeffery, Danny Amendola, and Golden Tate.

Jeffery...

 

[Vanimal46]

Inject this content straight into my veins!

[cHawk]

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Inject this content straight into my veins!

[Danchat]

It gets better:

Quote

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Davante Adams has "broken off long-term extension talks" with the Packers. 
The team's "classic structure" in forging long-term extensions has produced limited options for Adams, Rapoport reports. The behind-the-scenes extension "proposals have not acknowledged Adams as the highest paid" wide receiver in the game even after the receiver's ludicrous 7.53 receptions, 91.7 receiving yards, and 0.87 touchdowns per game over the past three years. The Athletic's Matt Schneidman said the Packers "don't want to recognize DeAndre Hopkins' deal when considering" an Adams extension. Hopkins makes around $5.2 million per year more than Adams. The breakdown in contract negotiations, along with Aaron Rodgers' holdout, constitute a crisis for the Packers unlike any we've seen in recent league history. Rodgers' shaky status with the team surely won't help them lock up Adams for the long run. 

It looks like they're lowballing him... and on top of Rodgers quitting on the team, Adams has to be very upset.