How the Twins Top 3 Pitchers Stack Up Against Each Other

[Cooper Carlson]

The Kenta Maeda trade was one that a lot of Twins fans didn’t really like, but could he actually be the best starter in the rotation? Today I look at the last three seasons for Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda to see who has been the best.2017-2019 statistics:

• Jose Berrios: 537 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP, .298 wOBA
• Jake Odorizzi: 466 IP, 4.05 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP, .308 wOBA
• Kenta Maeda: 371 IP, 4.12 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP, .294 wOBA

Jose Berrios:

 

I don’t think it’s hard to argue that Berrios is the most talented of the group, but he still hasn't taken the final step to becoming a true ace. 2020 was hopefully going to be his breakout year where he jumped into the next tier, but as we all know this season is going to be different. If I was ranking on talent alone then Berrios would likely win, but he has not shown he can be a truly elite starting pitcher.

 

Berrios has been an All Star in back to back seasons and in both seasons he has had stretches where he looked unstoppable. The problem for him is there is always a long stretch where everything seems to fall apart. For his career, every month leading up to August has an ERA at 4.03 or lower but his career August ERA is 5.96 so there is where the problem lies.

 

Jake Odorizzi:

 

Doing a three year split really hurts Odorizzi because he pretty much became a new pitcher in 2019. In the two years prior, he was an average starter that could slide into the fourth or fifth spot of an okay rotation and it looked like that was where he would stay. After an offseason of revamping himself, Odorizzi became an All Star and had a career best stat in almost every category. You could argue he was the best of the three in 2019.

 

Last season, Odorizzi had the best ERA, FIP, and K/9 among the three as he seemed to become a new pitcher. He improved his fastball command and utilized the top of the strike zone and also swapped out his slider for an improved cutter.

 

Kenta Maeda:

 

It’s always surprising to me how good Kenta Maeda is because he isn’t talked about like Berrios or Odorizzi. Of the stats I listed above, Maeda was the leader in the majority of them. One reason Maeda isn’t talked about as much is likely because of his innings. I sorted by only games he started so his innings as a reliever do not count here. Perhaps coming to Minnesota where his role as a starter will be solidified and he isn’t frustrated could help him become even better.

 

It is now known that he was frustrated with the Dodgers because they would never allow him to hit his innings limit to get paid more money. The Twins acquired him with the full intent to keep him as a starting pitcher all season. This gives the Twins a great top three of Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda with all three having upside.

 

Figuring out who is the best of the three is difficult and I think a full 2020 season would have been excellent to find out. Berrios would be in his hopeful breakout year, Odorizzi would be trying to repeat his All Star season, and Maeda would be in a new organization with a situation he is finally comfortable with.

 

How would you rank these three pitchers? Is Berrios the consensus number one among them? I feel like 2020 would have definitely been the season to show who is the best of the best so it is too bad the season was messed up.

 

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[mikelink45]

Very enlightening.  Maeda's numbers surprise me. 

[joemama]

As far as comparing to Berrios & Odorizzi, the jury is still out on Maeda. AL vs. NL matters. Facing a pitcher (not named Baumgarner) at least twice per 9 IP has to be worth 1.5 or so K's/9, plus improve your ERA.

[Det95Twins]

I agree with Joe that the NL pitching stats need to be adjusted. Berrios is by far the most talented of the 3 and has performed the best overall. He’s not yet been a top ace yet but when he stops tipping his pitches he will be a Cy Young candidate.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree w/ you Cooper. Berrios is by far the best pitcher. He can be depended on to pitch at least 7 good innings on most days & now capable to pitch around 200 innings which helps the BP a lot. I expect him to take another step & become a Cy Young canidate.

Odorizzi is always improving himself & last year stepped up his game, he`s motivated this year to continue to improve his value.  Baldelli had him pitched by far the least of the starting rotation (except Pineda, who had not pitched for a long time & left early) if he had pitched more his #s would have dived.

Maeda is a polished pitcher & if he`s handled like LA did he will continue to be good. But don`t expect him to turn into an ace just because he`ll be given an opportunity to pitch longer. LA  has had a fantastic pitcher coaching staff & their organization isn`t worried about $ if it means winning. Maeda wasn`t limited his innings because LA wanted to save $, it was because Maeda pitched better w/ fewer times around the batting order & his #s were much better at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Now he`ll pitch in hitter friendly Target Field. Unless our staff has found a secret that LA missed that they`re not sharing. If you look at the adjusted Maeda stats of game`s away from LA & pitching 3x or more through the order, I think some fans will be disappointed

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

The Kenta Maeda trade is officially a bust! The months we gained by signing Maeda, and trading Brusdar Graterol have passed us by. Maeda will not likely pitch in 2020. IF Rich Hill an Pineda are ready, the reason for the trade is so weakened by the shutdown that I shudder to imagine what might-have-been in 2020, while Graterol adds strength and seasoning for 2021, and beyond. Face it, we lost the trade.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

The Kenta Maeda trade is officially a bust! The months we gained by signing Maeda, and trading Brusdar Graterol have passed us by. Maeda will not likely pitch in 2020. IF Rich Hill an Pineda are ready, the reason for the trade is so weakened by the shutdown that I shudder to imagine what might-have-been in 2020, while Graterol adds strength and seasoning for 2021, and beyond. Face it, we lost the trade.

[DocBauer]

People sometimes worry about what Berrios hasn't done yet they fail to remember what he HAS done. Really, he has been amongst the best SP in ball for about 3/4 of a season before seeming to wear out. I have always attributed that to his famous workout dedication being too strenuous for the season. He and the Twins seem to agree as he did much better at the end of 2019 and there has been additional talk of him adjusting his routine.

 

Oh, and he just turned 26yo I believe

 

Odorizzi needs to prove it again. But late 20's is right about the time a lot of pitchers really hit their peak as talent and experience mesh.

 

Maeda was moved to the pen to close out each of the past few years...from all in have read...because the Dodgers had depth, needed help in the pen, and he was lights out there. The numbers back up his effectiveness.

 

I don't know how good he will be, but his career has been very good so far. Just don't tire him put for the second half, but that's a non issue for 2020. BTW, he's also coming off his best season vs LH batters. We should be excited to watch him.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The Kenta Maeda trade is officially a bust! The months we gained by signing Maeda, and trading Brusdar Graterol have passed us by. Maeda will not likely pitch in 2020. IF Rich Hill an Pineda are ready, the reason for the trade is so weakened by the shutdown that I shudder to imagine what might-have-been in 2020, while Graterol adds strength and seasoning for 2021, and beyond. Face it, we lost the trade.

Or, the Twins now get Rich Hill from opening day (the Strib recently projected a mid-July return), Maeda won't wear down and get sent to the bullpen, and Graterol will essentially lose a year of development.

[MN_ExPat]

 

Here's the Twins next great pitcher . 15.3 K/9 this spring before the season got cancelled.