Cafardo: Twins have inquired about Shields

[old nurse]

I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.

 

They draft extremely well. The prospects received for Garza and Kazmir have not panned out. A good salesman could trade major league talent. A slick trader could trade a couple for Shields and a decent pitching prospect.

Is Ryan a "slick trader"?

 

When all he could do is trade players for prospects he came out ahead. Ryan lost when he traded the residents of Gardy's doghouse. There are those on this board who would say no to him being a slick trader. Trading for established talent and signing free agents to larger contracts is new territory for the Ryan crew.

[DaveW]

As a dimwitted Twin's fan' date=' I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."

 

The one guy I would want that the Ray's have is unobtainable - Matt Moore. The team friendly contract he signed in the last year further cements that. If I was Terry Ryan, I would give Friedman a call and say - "Hey Andy, I want to give you Justin Morneau and we'll eat all of his salary next year, Denard Span, and Joe Benson for... have you guessed yet? Are you ready for it? Matt Moore!

 

Friedman will either hang up, say no thanks, or want Hicks, Gibson, or Arcia instead of Benson if not more.

 

THE END.[/quote']

 

What if they extend Shields? And the Twins very well can be a contender in 2014, no reason why they can't. 2013 isn't even out of reach, getting a front line guy like Shields is an excellent way to start though. If they can somehow get Shields, Baker+ Another solid pitcher off the FA market (Marcum). I like our chances. Shields, Marcum, Baker, Gibson, Diamond/Hendriks. That is a potentially very nice rotation.

[johnnydakota]

sanchez is the pitcher to target even to the point of over paying...every win he gets for the twins is a win the tigers dont get....

[kab21]

the innings pitched advantage that shields has on Marcum is a huge advantage. This isn't due to Marcum's usage by his manager. It's due to the fact that he gets injured a lot. With that being said he is quite underrated in this thread.

 

The reason that you trade Span for shields is that keeping Span also does little to help the Twins long term and teams are currently hoarding prospects. While it's not that great that Shields becomes a FA in 2 years the Twins will also likely net a draft pick or get a nice deadline deal.

[TheLeviathan]

I think my favorite part was when it was said that we could "realistically contend" if we just add "three more pitchers." When you couple that with the idea that Span is worth a top starter and you can tell why this thread is getting pretty silly. Span isn't going to land you Shields unless you're willing to attach a significant prospect to it.

 

That's far too many assets devoted to the immediate future after two near 100 loss seasons. It's just a foolish waste IMO.

[Guest USAFChief]

As a dimwitted Twin's fan' date=' I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."[/quote']

 

 

 

So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

 

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

[TheLeviathan]

So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

 

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

 

The analogy doesn't work (not well for Bark either, but to stick with it) because the problem here isn't that you totally punt 2013 and 2014, it's just that you avoid investing money and assets into acquiring someone who won't be here any longer than that. If you want to pour a bunch of money into a guy like Grienke or Marcum or someone likely to be here 2-4 years. Fine. But trading Span and a minor leaguer to get a guy there is virtually no chance you resign in two years? That's bad organizational planning.

[notoriousgod71]

I think most people over value prospects far too much.

[Physics Guy]

You can all keep arguing Shields vs Marcum all you want, but I'm with VodkaDave and want them both. They both have solid stats in their years in the AL East. The stats can be used to argue either way depending on which stats you cherry-pick to support your argument. The way the Twins do business, the only way they get two 10M starters is by shedding Span's contract. I think Shields is due around 10M and Marcum might get close to 10M (although I think his elbow issues may limit him). By shedding Span's 6+M contract it makes room for Baker also. They might be able to get all three for around $20M in additional salary (Shields+Marcum+Baker-Span). Whether TR is willing to do that, who knows?

 

The big issue is what it would take in addition to Span to get Shields. If they can get him without touching their top 10 prospects, I could live with it. If they can somehow free a younger guy such as Minor or Hellickson, I'd prefer that but I'm not sure we can get pull such a trade off.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I'd like to see Span traded for a pair of AA-AAA pitchers.

[Bark's Lounge]

So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

 

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

 

The analogy doesn't work (not well for Bark either, but to stick with it) because the problem here isn't that you totally punt 2013 and 2014, it's just that you avoid investing money and assets into acquiring someone who won't be here any longer than that. If you want to pour a bunch of money into a guy like Grienke or Marcum or someone likely to be here 2-4 years. Fine. But trading Span and a minor leaguer to get a guy there is virtually no chance you resign in two years? That's bad organizational planning.

 

Agreed. My analogy sucked. It is not not the first time, and I can assuredly say it won't be the last.

 

I am glad there are some hopeful posters who think the Twins will trade Denard Span and a prospect for James Shields, sign Shaun Marcum, resign Scott Baker, yakity, yak, yak, and win the World Series. I am not one who subscribes to that theory.

 

I hope the Twins make some smart moves that can raise their success level the next few years without mortgaging their future. Reality whispers in my ear, informing me that the 2000's Twins are now defunct. I now patiently await the new wave of Twin's prospects who will fill the roster, develop with good to great success and the Twins are at a place where it makes sense to add pricey/semi-pricey free agents.

 

From 2000-2010, we had mostly playoff teams. With 2006 being the exception, none of these teams looked or felt like a world championship team. I've seen enough Twin's playoff baseball to know I'd rather they not make the playoffs until we have a team that acts and smells like they are the group of guys that can win the Big Sha-Bang!

[kab21]

I'm as much as a pessimist as the next guy guy I thought but resigning Baker (highly likely) and trading for Shields is a good start of getting back to competitive in the short term. I'm not for trading Span and a top prospect but Tampa doesn't have a lot of partners in a Shields trade and I think they have made it clear that they will trade shields. What other team has a good up the middle (C/MI/CF) player on a cheap contract that will get traded for a starter making 11/yr? The only team I can think of is Texas IF they put Andrus into play (easily beating the Twins offer).

[Physics Guy]

I'm as much as a pessimist as the next guy guy I thought but resigning Baker (highly likely) and trading for Shields is a good start of getting back to competitive in the short term. I'm not for trading Span and a top prospect but Tampa doesn't have a lot of partners in a Shields trade and I think they have made it clear that they will trade shields. What other team has a good up the middle (C/MI/CF) player on a cheap contract that will get traded for a starter making 11/yr? The only team I can think of is Texas IF they put Andrus into play (easily beating the Twins offer).

 

Agreed that Texas blows us out of the water, but I've seen proposals that the Rangers would possibly go after Price if they offer Andrus. I think Price is going to get (pardon the pun) pricey for that franchise and I've read rumblings they may look to move him.

[70charger]

As a dimwitted Twin's fan' date=' I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."

[/quote']

 

If your argument is that Shields won't be around for Twins' success, then why would you think Span would? Unless 2015 is quite clearly the year the magic happens?

 

Span has only one year more on his contract than Shields, and it's an option year no less.

[DaveW]

I think my favorite part was when it was said that we could "realistically contend" if we just add "three more pitchers." When you couple that with the idea that Span is worth a top starter and you can tell why this thread is getting pretty silly. Span isn't going to land you Shields unless you're willing to attach a significant prospect to it.

 

That's far too many assets devoted to the immediate future after two near 100 loss seasons. It's just a foolish waste IMO.

 

Do you ever get tired by playing your heel role when it comes to anything Minnesota Sports?

[DaveW]

I'm as much as a pessimist as the next guy guy I thought but resigning Baker (highly likely) and trading for Shields is a good start of getting back to competitive in the short term. I'm not for trading Span and a top prospect but Tampa doesn't have a lot of partners in a Shields trade and I think they have made it clear that they will trade shields. What other team has a good up the middle (C/MI/CF) player on a cheap contract that will get traded for a starter making 11/yr? The only team I can think of is Texas IF they put Andrus into play (easily beating the Twins offer).

 

Yeah, I have a feeling they hold onto Andrus for a bit, or aim a bit higher then Shields at this point if they want to trade Andrus. As long as the "minor leaguer" included in the Span for Shields trade isn't one of Sano, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Gibson, Buxton, Berrios, I really don't think the Twins ultimately give up to much. Also I really don't understand where all this "The Twins won't be able to sign Shields to an extension" garbage is coming from, other then being a good pitcher there is nothing to suggest he wouldn't be open to such a thing, it's not like he is a Boras client or whatever. His agency is PSI, which features other "huge" names such as Dana Eveland, Doug Fister and Luke Scott (the rest are pretty slim pickens)

 

Unrelated/off topic: I think NOW is the time to try to trade Rosario for something, if the kid can't stick at 2B he loses a ton of value. I have a bad feeling his value will never be higher then it is now, and I sorta have concerns about him sticking in the MI, perhaps trade him now for a high upside minor league pitcher and hope for the best?

[Steve J]

Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

 

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

 

Fangraphs values his performance the past two years as $21.9m and $19.3m respectively. It's quite plausible his value exceeds $18m each of the next two seasons. The going rate on the FA market is about $10m for a decent #3 starter, and usually with a comittment of at least three years. Shields looks very much like a 'number 1', is only 30 years old, and the type of pitcher he is doesn't seem to be prone to suddenly falling off a cliff in their early 30's.

 

TB is looking for pitching because every team is always looking for pitching. I'm just not sure they'll like what we have.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

 

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

 

Fangraphs values his performance the past two years as $21.9m and $19.3m respectively. It's quite plausible his value exceeds $18m each of the next two seasons. The going rate on the FA market is about $10m for a decent #3 starter, and usually with a comittment of at least three years. Shields looks very much like a 'number 1', is only 30 years old, and the type of pitcher he is doesn't seem to be prone to suddenly falling off a cliff in their early 30's.

 

TB is looking for pitching because every team is always looking for pitching. I'm just not sure they'll like what we have.

 

Fangraphs valued Span at $17.4m last season. Span is under contract for three years at almost the same price Shields is for two.

 

Again, if they want much more than Span for Shields, I'd pass.

[TheLeviathan]

Do you ever get tired by playing your heel role when it comes to anything Minnesota Sports?

 

Where do I get the koolaid that makes almost laughably, childishly naive? But if you want to start a T-Wolves thread I'd be really optimistic! (Hint: They don't suck)

[Top Gun]

Matt Moore would be a great pitcher to get, he will be a 20 game winner real soon!

[old nurse]

Do you ever get tired by playing your heel role when it comes to anything Minnesota Sports?

 

Where do I get the koolaid that makes almost laughably, childishly naive? But if you want to start a T-Wolves thread I'd be really optimistic! (Hint: They don't suck)

 

 

You probably pissed and moaned over every move they made when the Timberwolves did suck. Also 26-40 is a great record?

[TheLeviathan]

They are 2-1 with reasons to be optimistic. Back to back 90+ loss seasons deserve pessimism. You are entitled to be optimistic but ridiculing pessimism because it doesnt make you a real fan is stupid.

[old nurse]

They are 2-1 with reasons to be optimistic. Back to back 90+ loss seasons deserve pessimism. You are entitled to be optimistic but ridiculing pessimism because it doesnt make you a real fan is stupid.

 

 

Ridiculing optimism with this statement

 

"Where do I get the koolaid that makes almost laughably, childishly naive? But if you want to start a T-Wolves thread I'd be really optimistic! (Hint: They don't suck)"

 

makes you what?

[TheLeviathan]

Dave goes beyond optimistic - I was replying to him. He is right now planning the next ten years of World Series parades after Deduno took a minor league deal. He's in his own ballpark.

[DaveW]

Dave goes beyond optimistic - I was replying to him. He is right now planning the next ten years of World Series parades after Deduno took a minor league deal. He's in his own ballpark.

 

Yeah, that simply isn't true. I said the Twins have the chance to compete in 2013 if they fix the rotation, adding Shields, Baker and Gibson IMO gives them enough of a chance to compete in a weak AL Central. Also there is zero reason why with Ryan at the helm they can't compete in 2014.

 

I admit I was wrong in my prediction for 2012 when I said they would win 78-84 games, but that wasn't exactly me predicting 10 world series. You need to lay off the hyperbole, champ.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Matt Moore would be a great pitcher to get, he will be a 20 game winner real soon!

 

Good grief, give the 20 game winner stuff a break.

[johnnydakota]

Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

 

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

shields was the 11 best starter in 2012 , and was ranked higher in 2011...and which pitcher of the twins broke the top 50? top 75even?

[johnnydakota]

So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

 

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

 

The analogy doesn't work (not well for Bark either, but to stick with it) because the problem here isn't that you totally punt 2013 and 2014, it's just that you avoid investing money and assets into acquiring someone who won't be here any longer than that. If you want to pour a bunch of money into a guy like Grienke or Marcum or someone likely to be here 2-4 years. Fine. But trading Span and a minor leaguer to get a guy there is virtually no chance you resign in two years? That's bad organizational planning.

 

so you want to keep 13 pitchers 3 catchers and 6 outfielders?,id love to keep span and trade lil ben , but ...who is worth more

[TheLeviathan]

I admit I was wrong in my prediction for 2012 when I said they would win 78-84 games, but that wasn't exactly me predicting 10 world series. You need to lay off the hyperbole, champ.

 

Drudging up the overly optimistic Dave predictions would take centuries - there have been so many comically awful examples that it doesn't pay to just pick one. You're an optimist, great. The rest of us in the real world suffered with awful game experiences, no ability to sell season tickets when we couldn't make a game, inept play, and a product barely worth paying attention to unless you are a diehard. I've earned the right to be a pessimist and so has any other Twins fan.

 

So no, I don't feel trading Span and a prospect for a two year rental is a sound idea. You want to swap him for Mike Minor, Tommy Hanson, or some other expanded deal with a prospect - fine. At least then you're helping the organization long-term and not trying to chase some naive delusion of contention.

[John Bonnes]

Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.