The "Nobody Wants To Come Here" Theory

[Rosterman]

In free agency, you look at adding 1-2-3 players at the most each season. You may sign a few more as fringe/minor league free agents. You maybe add one rookie to the full-time roster, and in an average year, look at 3-4 other players that may be around for more than one season. And you might make a real trade or a simple exchange. What is the average team roster turnover, in reality....30% at the most? The Twins had an oddity last year, and probably again this year.

 

But in regard to this question about "why play here." Let me ask again, how many free agents are telling their agents to "check out an offer from Minnesota."

[Mike Sixel]

I do not buy it. Free agents go where the money and playing time are. I have always thought this was some kind of excuse for fans, or an inferiority complex.

[Boom Boom]

During the Metrodome era it provided a convenient excuse that wasn't "we don't want to spend the money". Though some of those teams in the 'Dome were pretty good and I'd guess that they could have signed some more and better free agents if the Twins had put some more money into the team. Until two years ago the Twins weren't any less attractive of a destination than Chicago or Detroit.

[powrwrap]

[h=2]The "Nobody Wants To Come Here" Theory [/h] Where does the "Twins Must Overpay" theory (or myth) come from?

 

Which of these two theories do you want to discuss?

[Boom Boom]

The "Nobody Wants To Come Here" Theory

 

Where does the "Twins Must Overpay" theory (or myth) come from?

 

Which of these two theories do you want to discuss?

 

I think he means the one springs from the other - Minnesota is not an attractive landing spot for free agents, so in order to bring them in the Twins would have to offer more money than other teams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

in order to bring in free agents, teams have to offer more money than anyone else.

 

fify.

[Boom Boom]

in order to bring in free agents, teams have to offer more money than anyone else.

 

fify.

 

Well yeah, obvy.

 

But that gets away from the topic. When a free agent is considering destinations, does Minnesota have some kind of negative cachet that would have to be mitigated by more guaranteed money/years/both? If you're Dan Haren, would you take 1 million less to sign with the Yankees than with the Twins?

[ericchri]

I think it probably bleeds over from basketball especially (being a winter sport). And some people don't take the time to consider differences in sports, once they hear "Nobody wants to go to Minnesota" in regards to one sport, they just assume it applies to other sports. I also think Minnesota's reputation for not spending that last little bit to make the play for a championship, while not completely accurate, is out there. Meaning if your choices are Minnesota and Detroit, where most other factors are going to be similar (market size, climate), you're going to think that Detroit is the team more likely to make the move at the deadline to put the team over the top. There's also no getting around the fact that the Twins have been putrid two years in a row. Even if you don't subscribe to any other factors, most people facing equal opportunities in all factors except "chance to win" are going to rank Minnesota low on that factor right now. Also, what are state income taxes considered to be for Minnesota? I should know, but I have nothing more than a gut feeling that for some reason tells me they're a little on the high side.

 

Without being able to listen to the thoughts of every free agent on the market, you're never going to definitively answer that question, but it's not too far-fetched to believe some FA's are going to need a little extra financial incentive to go to Minnesota versus somewhere else. Not all, but some.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well yeah, obvy.

 

But that gets away from the topic. When a free agent is considering destinations, does Minnesota have some kind of negative cachet that would have to be mitigated by more guaranteed money/years/both? If you're Dan Haren, would you take 1 million less to sign with the Yankees than with the Twins?

 

Probably not. A million dollars is a lot of money and pitching in NY brings with it an incredible pressure to perform. If I'm 37 years old and trying to win a ring, yeah, that might swing my vote to NY. If I'm 32 and looking at a 3 year deal, I take the money and run. If I'm looking for a one-year "make good" contract that will bring me a multi-year payday the following season, I look at the teams who will guarantee me playing time... Which probably isn't going to be the Yankees.

[mnfireman]

Blame it on Big Papi....turning a power hitter into a singles and doubles hitter. Blame it on Torii Hunter....refusing to overpay for a CF who was about to be a corner OF...... Blame it on Johan Santana.....a small framed workhorse who's career was about to be decimated by forseeable injuries. Blame it on Nathan....a closer who can't close in the playoffs. Blame it on Cuddy and Kubel.......well, one took more money and one wasn't offered a contract. Top tier FA's won't sign with the Twins because the Twins won't go all in after them. And probably rightly so. Except for defense, Willingham, Cuddy, Kubel and Hunter are about the same player, but one earned $18M while the others earned $8M or less. Papi is an injury plagued 1B/DH, wait, we have one of those. Santana, oh my could you imagine the backlash on these boards if the team had kept Santana and gotten 46 wins for $100M over 5 years with 2 more years and $50M to go. The posters on here might even leave Mauer alone if the team still had that contract. The team paid Nathan and had a viable replacement already on the team, they just didn't know it (Perkins). The one thing I think the team shies away from is Boras clients, and he usually represents the big name guys. Just sayin'!

[powrwrap]

This thread is filled with question begging. Leading off is "Nobody wants to come here". Following that is "but they would if the Twins paid them more." These are assumptions and there is no way to know if they are true or not. The Twins have retained their own players at a hometown discount (Gaetti, Hrbek) and have paid top dollar (Puckett, Mauer).

 

Let's look at Josh Willingham.

 

Josh Willingham's agent, Matt Sosnick, said Thursday to Jane Lee of MLB.com that he "got a good amount of calls last night and this morning" from potential suitors. Sosnick added Willingham is looking to secure a three-year deal and one preferably closer to his home in Florence, Alabama. [Nov. 4, 2011]

 

As December played out Willingham had narrowed his choices to Colorado, Cleveland, and Minnesota. Looks to me like Denver and Cleveland is closer to Alabama than Minneapolis. So did the Twins outbid those other clubs? One day after the Twins signed Willingham to a 3 year, $21M contract Denver signed Cuddyer for 3 years, $30M. There is no way to know, but I would think the Rockies offered more than $21M for Willingham (if he indeed got an offer from them) yet he signed with the Twins.

 

To summarize, there is no way to know if the premise of these statements are valid or not.

[ThePuck]

This thread is filled with question begging. Leading off is "Nobody wants to come here". Following that is "but they would if the Twins paid them more." These are assumptions and there is no way to know if they are true or not. The Twins have retained their own players at a hometown discount (Gaetti, Hrbek) and have paid top dollar (Puckett, Mauer).

 

Let's look at Josh Willingham.

 

Josh Willingham's agent, Matt Sosnick, said Thursday to Jane Lee of MLB.com that he "got a good amount of calls last night and this morning" from potential suitors. Sosnick added Willingham is looking to secure a three-year deal and one preferably closer to his home in Florence, Alabama. [Nov. 4, 2011]

 

As December played out Willingham had narrowed his choices to Colorado, Cleveland, and Minnesota. Looks to me like Denver and Cleveland is closer to Alabama than Minneapolis. So did the Twins outbid those other clubs? One day after the Twins signed Willingham to a 3 year, $21M contract Denver signed Cuddyer for 3 years, $30M. There is no way to know, but I would think the Rockies offered more than $21M for Willingham (if he indeed got an offer from them) yet he signed with the Twins.

 

To summarize, there is no way to know if the premise of these statements are valid or not.

 

Probably doesn't matter much, but Minneapolis is closer to Florence, AL than Denver is...

[Rosterman]

This is baseball economics that I don't understand. It seems Cleveland didn't go Year Three. And why, after the Twins signed Willingham, the Rockies felt they had to pay Cuddyer significantly more. Was there another destination on tap for Cuddyer (I think not). This was something, right up there with overpaying A-Rod by $100 million over the second suitor. Like, they weren't going to sign, or maybe there was a high-end single year offer that the player was looking at.

[johnnydakota]

deuno and vasquez have both agreed to contracts with the twins for 2013

[StormJH1]

Yeah, I don't buy the argument that players are opposed to coming here. That's CERTAINLY an issue for the NFL (because player have to play in the cold) and NBA (because they would primarily live in Minnesota during the coldest months of the year), but summers in Minnesota are nice. And I think pro athletes have a much broader knowledge than the general public of which major cities are nice and which are less nice based on the fact that these guys travel CONSTANTLY.

 

The only legitimate part of that argument came from the fact that the team has just been BAD the last two years, and I do agree that some of the more sought-after free agents don't want to play for bad teams. However, this is usually a problem that takes care of itself because teams that are bad for any period of time usually lower their budget, and don't run out and sign guys to $20 million/year contracts, unless they also happen to be a in a huge, lucrative market, like New York.