110 million 4 Donaldson or Prospects for Bryant Faceoff

[nicksaviking]

 

Hmmmm.....Lewis and two near MLB prospects? That seems like one of the most rational trade proposals this site has ever seen. It depends on what the As think of Thorpe, I'd guess.

 

A flyball lefty with a bit of swing an miss stuff sounds like the kind of guy Oakland traditionally likes.

 

But it finally sounds like the A's are getting their new stadium, their days of obscene frugality may soon be behind them. Even if they don't get their windfall from the opening of a new stadium for a few more years, they may start to resist their yearly urge to be a bottom 5 team in payroll to show good faith to the city and fans and to ensure there's a winning club on the field when it does open.

[akmanak]

Donaldson has proven he can hit in the American League and Bryant has not. If they are going to risk a bunch of moolah I would rather them go for Donaldson.

[yarnivek1972]

The only way the FO ever listens to the fans is when they stop showing up to games. Stadium was full and ratings were up. They don't care.

Attendance last year was still more than a million shy of Target Field’s first two years. Considering the Twins had one of the league’s best records for most of the season, that’s not very impressive IMO.

[purplesoldier4u]

 

Welcome to the site. It’s beyond “reasonably cool” because the moderators do such a great job keeping people on topic and making sure that it remains a civil place for great discussion among people who contribute good insights. 

 

So what’s your view on Bryant vs. Donaldson? Mine would be Donaldson, but I mainly agree with the group that says if we’re thinking about trading prospects, let’s do it for pitchers. 

If the rumor that the JD sweepstakes has reached 4/114 (because of the Dodgers) and the Twins are short of 4/<100, it's time to move on.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Attendance last year was still more than a million shy of Target Field’s first two years. Considering the Twins had one of the league’s best records for most of the season, that’s not very impressive IMO.

 

Attendance tends to lag a year behind whatever the trend is for winning or losing....so this year should be higher.

[Oxtung]

 

I don't want either!  I want Matt Chapman. The A's can't afford to extend him or buy out his expensive arbitration years coming up, but the Twins can. Marcus Simeon only has 1 year left with the A's at SS so Lewis is the perfect trade chip to start this deal. If Polanco is your SS and Buxton your CF, why the need to hang on to Lewis? Chapman has 4 years of team control (compared to 2 for Bryant) and Donaldson doesn't warrant a 4 year deal. Arbitration is going to be very expensive for the A's starting in 2021. Would Lewis,Thorpe,& Rooker get it done?

I love the idea but I don't think the A's return your call with that package. From a "surplus value" perspective...

 

Chapman:

Conservative Average WAR: 4

Aggressive Average WAR: 6

Years Control: 4

Expected Arbitration $: 50M

Cnsv. Surplus Value: $112M

Aggr Surplus Value: $200M

 

Lewis:

Fangraphs Rating: 60

Avg 60 Surplus Val: $61M

 

Thorpe:

FG Rating: 45

Avg Srpls Val: $10.5M

 

Rooker:

FG Rating: 40

Avg Srpls Val: $4.5M

 

Values:

Chapman: $112M - $200M

Twins: $76M

 

Other Twin Values

Kirilloff/Larnach/Graterol/Balazovich/Duran: 

FG Rating: 50

Avg Surplus Value: $26M

 

Obviously what the A's think of Chapman and the Twins prospects is really the key here, but I think this shows in a general sense that Chapman is a stud with many years of control left and that is an incredibly valuable thing. I'm not even convinced they would accept a package of Lewis, and three of Kirilloff, Larnach, Graterol, Balazovich, Duran. From a surplus value perspective that would put the Twins at about $130M. IMO, there is no way the Twins do that even if the A's would. So as much as I like this idea I just don't see a way it happens.