Nelson Cruz for MVP?

[Doctor Wu]

I realize this is a bit premature, but would it be far-fetched to start thinking of Nelson Cruz as an MVP candidate? I was perhaps one of the few on this board who was not that crazy about the Twins signing him over the winter, but my skepticism has turned to admiration. This guy has been amazing this year! 39 years old, or any age, he is putting up some very impressive stats. Maybe he won't be having more 3-homer games, but can he continue playing this well down the stretch?

[gunnarthor]

He might get a back end vote (he has gotten votes in 4 years, finishing as high as 6th once). But he's not the MVP of the team, let alone the league.

[alarp33]

He's been awesome, but no, not even close. For one, Mike Trout is going to probably be unanimous. 2, Cruz isn't the MVP on his own team, it's Kepler (or Polanco). 

[Tomj14]

If he keeps up the last two weeks pace for the rest of the year he has a chance.

[jkcarew]

Apparently none of you watch ESPN’s game of the week.

 

The MVP is D.J. LeMahieu. (And Aaron Boone is MoY.)....Duh!

[Brandon Warne]

He’s not more valuable to the Twins than Max Kepler.

 

Great, great offensive season but Mike Trout >>>>>>>

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, even though he's a DH, Cruz is still accumulating WAR at pretty much an equal or better rate than Polanco or Kepler. But he's at least 20 games / 100 PA behind those two.

 

But yeah, assuming Trout stays healthy, it would appear to be his award to lose without a standout competitor like Betts in 2018.

[crapforks]

If Trout sat out the rest of the season, he might still win it.

[alarp33]

 

FWIW, even though he's a DH, Cruz is still accumulating WAR at pretty much an equal or better rate than Polanco or Kepler. But he's at least 20 games / 100 PA behind those two.

 

But yeah, assuming Trout stays healthy, it would appear to be his award to lose without a standout competitor like Betts in 2018.

 

Sure, but he did miss 20 games and his WAR is lower, meaning he has been less valuable. Not a slight at Cruz at all, he's been phenomenal. But so has Kepler without missing time

 

And agree with poster above me, Trout might not even need to stay healthy much longer to wrap up his 3rd MVP

[James]

Trout has got that awards locked down.  Cruz and Kepler are having great seasons.  Trout's season is damn near historic. 

 

That being said, having Kepler and Cruz on the same team, and even discussing the real possibility that they both get some MVP votes is a great feeling.  

[jkcarew]

Lots of confidence in Trout for MVP here. Because he's the best player, he's going to win the MVP? Would have lost more money than you won making that bet the last several years.

 

Trout's on pace for 10.2 WAR this year. He's failed to win the MVP, not once, but twice, with that much WAR. Agree he doesn't have the AL competition that he's had in those years...and agree he probably would win it (at this point). But, think it's far from a slam dunk, and I don't put anything past the bias for 'best player on great team' bias that many voters have...especially when that great team is on the east coast.

[gunnarthor]

 

Lots of confidence in Trout for MVP here. Because he's the best player, he's going to win the MVP? Would have lost more money than you won making that bet the last several years.

 

Trout's on pace for 10.2 WAR this year. He's failed to win the MVP, not once, but twice, with that much WAR. Agree he doesn't have the AL competition that he's had in those years...and agree he probably would win it (at this point). But, think it's far from a slam dunk, and I don't put anything past the bias for 'best player on great team' bias that many voters have...especially when that great team is on the east coast.

Not to turn this into a WAR debate but 1) in 2012, he lost to Miguel Cabrera. Joe Posnanski actually reported that the Oakland A's internal WAR calculations had valued Cabrera's season slightly better than Trout's season, suggesting that public WAR systems overvalued defense/baserunning and undervalued games. 2) in 2018, Trout's 10+ WAR season was still second to Mookie Betts. In fact, Trout actually won MVP in a year where he didn't lead the league in WAR, "stealing" the award from Corey Kluber.

[alarp33]

 

Lots of confidence in Trout for MVP here. Because he's the best player, he's going to win the MVP? Would have lost more money than you won making that bet the last several years.

 

Trout's on pace for 10.2 WAR this year. He's failed to win the MVP, not once, but twice, with that much WAR. Agree he doesn't have the AL competition that he's had in those years...and agree he probably would win it (at this point). But, think it's far from a slam dunk, and I don't put anything past the bias for 'best player on great team' bias that many voters have...especially when that great team is on the east coast.

 

Last year Betts had a higher WAR than Trout. This year Trout is on pace to lead the AL in WAR by around 3 full points

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lots of confidence in Trout for MVP here. Because he's the best player, he's going to win the MVP? Would have lost more money than you won making that bet the last several years.

 

Trout's on pace for 10.2 WAR this year. He's failed to win the MVP, not once, but twice, with that much WAR. Agree he doesn't have the AL competition that he's had in those years...and agree he probably would win it (at this point). But, think it's far from a slam dunk, and I don't put anything past the bias for 'best player on great team' bias that many voters have...especially when that great team is on the east coast.

"he doesn't have the AL competition that he's had in those years" is the key point here.

 

There is no 2018 Mookie Betts in the AL this year. Not even close.

 

There isn't a 2012-2013 Triple Crown winning Miguel Cabrera either.

 

There probably isn't even a 2015 Donalson (8.5 bWAR) or 2017 Altuve or Judge (8.1 bWAR each) this year -- 2nd place is currently Marcus Semien, who is only on pace for 7.2 bWAR and would likely split some votes with 4th place teammate Matt Chapman, who is on pace for 6.9. 3rd place is Bregman, who could split with Springer and Verlander. The best pitchers, ahead of Verlander, are both teammates too, Minor and Lynn.

 

The best Boston player is still Betts, but everyone acknowledges his season is not up to 2018 standards (6.5 bWAR pace, on a team that might miss the postseason). LeMahieu is the only remotely close Yankee, on pace for the same 6.5 bWAR. I'm sure we'll hear LeMahieu's name bandied about in the media, but I highly doubt he beats Trout (already at 7.1 bWAR) in 1st place MVP votes, barring a sudden injury for Trout.

 

Nothing it 100% guaranteed, but betting on Trout for MVP in 2019 is a much, much better bet than the in every previous season where he failed to win the award.