Article: Wouldja? Trading For Giants Closer Will Smith

[Steve Lein]

Weeks ago my ceiling for a trade for Smith and Bumgarner was Trevor Larnach + Nick Gordon.

 

I think that's a significant overpay in terms of what I think the costs should be, but the poll had nearly 70% percent of ~1200 votes saying they'd do that trade.

[jorgenswest]

I think the market is going to drive prices up.

 

Only the Marlins are truly out of wild card contention in the NL. The Giants are 3 games out and playing well right now. The Mets are 5.5 out with an unpredictable front office.

 

In the AL the Blue Jays and Tigers have some very good pitchers to offer that are not rentals. They don’t need to trade them unless blown away.

 

The Giants are not in a budget crunch. They don’t need to trade their expiring contracts and throw in this season unless they are blown away... certainly not while they are three games back.

 

I am not sure comps from last year are going to apply in this market. It might take more. It also might take some patience. In two weeks a few more teams might drop out.

[Brandon]

Also consider the Twins will have a huge 40 man roster crunch after the season. I would be looking to trade several of the fringe players who should/ could be added over the higher ranked prospects. We only need 1 or 2 relievers and maybe a starter. So it's not like we have to make lots of trades. Just one or two. They could trade several guys clearing the 40 man so we don't loose much in the rule 5 draft next off-season.

[jorgenswest]

Also consider the Twins will have a huge 40 man roster crunch after the season. I would be looking to trade several of the fringe players who should/ could be added over the higher ranked prospects. We only need 1 or 2 relievers and maybe a starter. So it's not like we have to make lots of trades. Just one or two. They could trade several guys clearing the 40 man so we don't loose much in the rule 5 draft next off-season.

I agree but if I can’t win in a deal on quantity I would still be willing to give up higher ranked prospects. In this market I think it is going to take quality.

[MN_ExPat]

I think we also have to look at (SF in particular) many of the teams in question depth of talent ( or lack there of) in their farm systems.  

 

SF desperately needs player depth.   This may very well be a case where they take quantity or top tier quality.   Hard to say for sure, but I feel that like many of us have said already, the next two weeks will be telling.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think we also have to look at (SF in particular) many of the teams in question depth of talent ( or lack there of) in their farm systems.

 

SF desperately needs player depth. This may very well be a case where they take quantity or top tier quality. Hard to say for sure, but I feel that like many of us have said already, the next two weeks will be telling.

SF needs everything. If they are going to reverse their fortunes from the past few years, they are going to need far more than just the proceeds from their 2019 deadline trades.

 

To best achieve that, their preferred plan is probably getting the best quality they can at this deadline, and hope that improved drafting/scouting/development can improve their depth from within, just as the Twins have done the past few years. Because it's harder to quickly get quality prospects from within.

 

But at the same time, they may not hold out for a 50 FV guy here if they have an offer on the table with three 45 FV guys they really like. So in that sense, I agree with you. However, that kind of quantity/depth trade doesn't mean they will just take our spare parts, injured/underperforming prospects, or surplus Rule 5 eligibles, as is often suggested around here!

[yarnivek1972]

A few things:

 

Soria is a RHP, Smith is LHP.

 

Soria was 5 years older.

 

Sofia was making twice as much in salary.

 

Soria's career K/9 is only 9.8. He was likely due to regress from his 2018 numbers (and he has). Smith's career mark since moving to the pen is 12.0, so 2019 is well in line.

Soria’s career K per 9 “only” being 9.8 is likely reflective of pitching a good chunk of his career before league K rates skyrocketed.

 

In 2007 (Soria’s first year at MLB) the league K rate was 17.1.%. In 2019, it is 22.8%. That’s about a 30% increase in strikeouts.

Edited July 16, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[TwinsBills]

Yes!!!!

[Linus]

Stewart and Cave should be enough for a two month rental

[Otto von Ballpark]

Soria’s career K per 9 “only” being 9.8 is likely reflective of pitching a good chunk of his career before league K rates skyrocketed.

 

In 2007 (Soria’s first year at MLB) the league K rate was 17.1.%. In 2019, it is 22.8%. That’s about a 30% increase in strikeouts.

Fine. Would you rather look at more recent results? Soria's K/9 was 9.7 in 2016-2017; 9.5 from 2013-2017 (Smith is at 12.0 since 2013). Not that 9.8 is necessarily bad or anything, but especially considering their ages, there's no way to slice it to suggest Soria was likely to maintain his 11.4 mark with the White Sox in 2018. So John using that figure to try to equate Soria's value to that of Smith is misleading.

[Jham]

Stewart and Cave should be enough for a two month rental

You really think no other team will beat that offer?