Offseason Trade Candidates

[Lonestar]

I think you should add Jake McGee and Jeff Niemann to that list - also relegated to the bullpen in Tampa if they don't trade Shields. If the Twins could see Niemann pitch and have him pass a rigorous exam, he would be interesting. McGee has been relegated to LOOGY but has good splits and started in AA.

 

Morneau and $11M for McGee and Niemann? Or McGee and Davis.

Span and _________ for McGee and Niemann?

[Lonestar]

I think you should add Jake McGee and Jeff Niemann to that list - also relegated to the bullpen in Tampa if they don't trade Shields. If the Twins could see Niemann pitch and have him pass a rigorous exam, he would be interesting. McGee has been relegated to LOOGY but has good splits and started in AA.

 

Morneau and $11M for McGee and Niemann? Or McGee and Davis.

Span and _________ for McGee and Niemann?

 

Delete reference to Span. Like Kab pointed out, they have Jennings.

[kab21]

they have Jennings but they still need OF'ers and DH's. They really need offense but they have also always had great defenses to go with their pitching staffs. They could definitely match up with Span or Willingham.

 

I'm not sure why there's so much interest in Niemann. He's the kind of guy you pick up not using your best trade chips. He's a 4.00 ERA guy that is 2 yrs from FA. He also has a long injury history and not many think he can stay healthy.

 

The scouting report on McGee for at least 5 years was that he was going to end up a RP. And he currently looks like an elite RP'er so he would cost an arm and a leg to get. I wouldn't target a project starter with 1-2 of your prime trade chips.

[kab21]

 

Interesting, as I've seen a number of Cloyd's starts on milb.tv this year (great investment, btw), and I compare him strongly to a minor league version of Kevin Slowey.

 

I like how thrylos somehow thinks that the Phillies knew less than he did and that he was available.

[Willihammer]

Maddon has been batting Keppinger because he is one of the few guys who doesn't strike out all the time. Revere not only has a miniscule strikeout rate, but obviously plays great defense and is under team control for a few years yet. A Revere-Davis trade might appeal to everyone.

[Steve Penz]

I work for a company who has an HQ in Seattle. Apparently the Mariners have just released a notice that they have plans to move in CF by 8 feet and LF by 17 feet. Rumor has it that this is to attract right-handed power. I have not looked over exact scenarios but Seattle has good, young pitching.

[LastOnePicked]

Do we really want the Rays to pick our pockets again? Stay away -- those guys are clearly smarter than we are at this point.

[Craig in MN]

The Marlins are expected to make some major changes. I expect them to trade at least one of their big contracts (Johnson, Nolasco, Buerhle, Bell & Reyes). Johnson & Nolasco would be great, but are only signed for 1 more year, so I don't see the point for the Twins. Bell doesn't seem to be a fit at all, and Reyes trading would be a huge PR hit. Buerhle's got 3 more years left, and the Twins like him a lot. If the Marlins ate some of that salary, I could easily see them having some interest. TR & Gardy are going to want a veteran leader in the rotation, and Buerhle would fit the bill and would be a popular addition for a lot of fans. The Marlins could have an opening in the OF or 1B, so there might be a match there.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Do we really want the Rays to pick our pockets again? Stay away -- those guys are clearly smarter than we are at this point.

 

Ding, ding, ding! The more and more I read about Yunel Escobar the less I want him. He's an awful clubhouse guy and some of his teammate's have gone as far to say, "What will he screw up this game?"

[biggentleben]

Do we really want the Rays to pick our pockets again? Stay away -- those guys are clearly smarter than we are at this point.

 

Ding, ding, ding! The more and more I read about Yunel Escobar the less I want him. He's an awful clubhouse guy and some of his teammate's have gone as far to say, "What will he screw up this game?"

 

Yunel isn't a Ray, he's a Jay, but he's also a pretty trashy human being as well.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Do we really want the Rays to pick our pockets again? Stay away -- those guys are clearly smarter than we are at this point.

 

Ding, ding, ding! The more and more I read about Yunel Escobar the less I want him. He's an awful clubhouse guy and some of his teammate's have gone as far to say, "What will he screw up this game?"

 

Yunel isn't a Ray, he's a Jay, but he's also a pretty trashy human being as well.

 

I know that and they really were two separate thoughts, but I guess I see how you thought I thought that.

[Thrylos]

 

Interesting, as I've seen a number of Cloyd's starts on milb.tv this year (great investment, btw), and I compare him strongly to a minor league version of Kevin Slowey.

I like how thrylos somehow thinks that the Phillies knew less than he did and that he was available.

 

I live in the area. He was available. As a matter of fact the Phillies did not protect him for the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft last off-season (highest level AA so he could have been picked at the AAA level). Lots of articles in the local press that he came as a surprise to the Phillies organization including this one. Not what I think, it is what is common knowledge in this neck of the woods...

[beckmt]

Seattle would be a good fit, Oakland would be a good fit or Tampa Bay would be a good fit. Do not like Philly pitchers at all. Braves could also be a target. If you trade Span the Twins have many minor league outfielders coming and need pitching in the worst way. I only hope TR make the correct decisions, but all of these trades have to be guessed correctly, and Tampa Bay and Oakland have track records for great deals.

I believe all twins are available, but the key pieces will cost a great deal.

[Giles Ferrell]

If the Twins traded Span for James Shields. I would not complain. In fact, I endorse it. Tampa will have a hole in CF, and Span has a Tampa payroll friendly contract. Shields has a $9M team option for '13, and a $12M team option for '14. The Twins would have no issue picking those options up.

[JP3700]

I love the idea of trading for Shields. However, considering how strong he finished the season, I would think it would take Span and Parmelee to acquire him. The Rays need a long term 1B so Parm would make sense along with Span as the replacement in CF for Upton. Would be a steep price to pay, but Shields is worth it IMO.

 

Other big name targets might be..

1. Josh Johnson

2. Jon Lester

3. Mark Buehrle

[biggentleben]

I love the idea of trading for Shields. However, considering how strong he finished the season, I would think it would take Span and Parmelee to acquire him. The Rays need a long term 1B so Parm would make sense along with Span as the replacement in CF for Upton. Would be a steep price to pay, but Shields is worth it IMO.

 

Other big name targets might be..

1. Josh Johnson

2. Jon Lester

3. Mark Buehrle

 

I am fairly certain Span and Parmelee would not net you James Shields. It would take more than that.

[Dilligaf69]

The Rays need to replace Upton. Span is a hometown guy that would fit what they need. Per fan graph Span is a 3.5 war, value of 15.7m. He is owed 11.25m for 13-14. Shields is a 3.8 war 16.9m value and fits what the Twins biggest need is. He has options for 13-14 for 21m total. Tampa fills a need and saves 10m over 2 years and still has an option for Span in 15. Shields cost only a little more than what Pavano was paid and he'd be a top of the rotation guy. Think how much better he'd be in the Central instead of the East.

 

 

I think the Rays will pick up the option on Shields..

[greengoblinrulz]

Mentioned above but with Miami also bein horrible.....they do have more starters than they need.

Josh Johnson

Ricky Nolasco

Mark Buehrle

Jacob Turner

Nate Eovaldi

Brad Hand--only 1 MLB start this season--decent AAA yr in hitters friendly PCL

27st 148.1IP 129h 141k 75bb 4.00ERA

 

Top 3 all making over 10m....so its a solid investment with Nolasco/Johnson 1 yr from FA (what TRyan likes).

 

Id offer up a Span for Nolasco/Hand.

Nolasco isnt a world beater BUT he stays healthy, makes his starts (last 5 yrs averages 31st/190IP) & throws hard (90mph this yr/90.9 career). He is gonna make 11.5m, so MIA could shed 6m (reason for them to do it) & get a solid CF/leadoff hitter with a good contract as well as retaining a solid foursome in their rotation.

I realize Hand is from MN, but he's also a solid prospect who strikes guys out. Think you could do worse than this deal.

[JP3700]

I'm not a Nolasco fan, especially at 11.5M. Hand's BB rate has been very high the last couple years, ever since he hit AA and beyond. However, I do like that you put some thought in the post and thought out of the box.

 

Josh Johnson is from Minnesota as well so he's very intriguing. The only problem is Miami would probably want young pitching and/or power hitting corner guys. I would think Hendriks + Plouffe might interest them but then what do we do at 3rd base? I would probably want to know that he'd be willing to sign an extension before making that trade.

 

I really like the Tommy Hanson idea from a previous post. The Braves along with the Rays are the most ideal trade partners for Span, and I do like Hanson's upside along with his 3 years of team control. Delgado and Teheran are the other two pitchers that might be available from their army of pitchers.

 

Another guy I just wanted to add is Justin Masterson. He has 2 years of control left and is due for a raise this year. The Indians have been shopping him but I don't really know what we have that would interest them other than Parmelee. Just wanted to add a name to the mix

[greengoblinrulz]

Like the Hanson idea also or even Mike Minor as Maholm, Hudson & Medlen are solidly entrenched.

 

Thought I liked Masterson till I was reading that CLEV is thinking bout moving him to pen as a RH specialist. ..... but with arbitration due to him (3.83m this yr) , they may need to non-tender him as he'd be a very expensive reliever

.............Vs LHH ................vs RHH

2012 .296/.376/.450 ......232/.308/.304

2011 .291/.331/.415.......210/.300/.259

2010 .290/.370/.414.......263/.331/.350

2009 .323/.407/.470.......203/.289/.302

[greengoblinrulz]

The homerun for MN this offseason is acquiring an ace. Easier said than done as they wont be active in top tier FA.

Will Josh Johnson be out there.......possibly.

The one guy who IMO will be an ace in the future is TEX LH Derrick Holland. Depending on how disappointed Nolan Ryan is off the last 3 playoff losses, would they deal him? Depends on......

Tex has Yu Darvish/Matt Harrison at top of their rotation but will they get into the Zack Grienke sweepstakes or resign Dempster?

With 2 SS's...does Elvis Andrus get dealt (to Ariz for Justin Upton is rumoured) and/or Josh Hamiltion resigned/let go.

Holland signed a VERY respectable 5yr 28m deal before the 12 season so I would include anyone outside Sano in a deal for him.

He has also been a MUCH better pitcher outside Arlington.(3.49 road ERA in 11/12)

They could be looking for a CF like Span, 1B like Morneau, C like Doumit or prospects like Arcia/Hicks/Gibson or Rosario.

This would be MY homerun type trade

[greengoblinrulz]

one guy I havent seen mentioned either for trade is HOU's Bud Norris.

Playing for the majors worst team the past 2 yrs, Norris' numbers are pretty good---60starts 4.19ERA (playin in HOU also) .254BAA 8.7K/9 3.5BB/9.....those numbers would play very well on a good team IMO.

Only 28 next season, he's got his 3 arbitration years coming up.

As bad as Hou is, they would seem to be a team that would take quanity over high quality right now.

Would put him at top of the sleeper list

 

Wash has been mentioned for 2 yrs as a spot for Span/Revere & that will heat up this offseason even if the Nationals win it all IMO.

Ross Detwiler will be the main pitcher discussed if they do. He had an excellent year but also fits right in with the Twins as WASH only let him get to 100pitches once all yr

If this gets goin, Id love for MN to get Danny Espinosa as either a SS/2B. Michael Morse is also gonna get mentioned this offseason if they acquire a CF as they need to decide between him or Adam LaRoche.

[Willihammer]

The Nats CF is already solvent: Bryce Harper

[John Bonnes]

I love the idea of trading for Shields. However, considering how strong he finished the season, I would think it would take Span and Parmelee to acquire him. The Rays need a long term 1B so Parm would make sense along with Span as the replacement in CF for Upton. Would be a steep price to pay, but Shields is worth it IMO.

 

Other big name targets might be..

1. Josh Johnson

2. Jon Lester

3. Mark Buehrle

 

I am fairly certain Span and Parmelee would not net you James Shields. It would take more than that.

 

FWIW, I talked to Jason Collette, who I trust to know as much about the Rays as anyone, about a straight up Span for Shields trade. He thought that made quite a bit of sense. Shields is relatively cheap for his contract, but it's still an expensive contract ($9M in 2013 I think? More in 2014?) and he's not a dominant pitcher, just pretty reliable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I love the idea of trading for Shields. However, considering how strong he finished the season, I would think it would take Span and Parmelee to acquire him. The Rays need a long term 1B so Parm would make sense along with Span as the replacement in CF for Upton. Would be a steep price to pay, but Shields is worth it IMO.

 

Other big name targets might be..

1. Josh Johnson

2. Jon Lester

3. Mark Buehrle

 

I am fairly certain Span and Parmelee would not net you James Shields. It would take more than that.

 

I will never understand why people are so bloody high on Shields. Look at his numbers. He's a healthier version of Scott Baker that is owed ~$23m over the next two years. Outside of 2011, he's just not that great. Why do people act as if he's the second coming?

 

The Rays would get three years of a younger player in Span for the same price as two years of Shields. Why would it take so much more than Span (whose WAR is higher, though position vs. pitcher WAR is specious at best) to lure Shields away from the Rays?

 

It seems to me as if Shields has a "Greinke Halo" around him. People remember one great season and fail to look more closely to see that those years were aberrations, not the norm. The guy is running largely on a name, not actual performance.

[JP3700]

 

I will never understand why people are so bloody high on Shields. Look at his numbers. He's a healthier version of Scott Baker that is owed ~$23m over the next two years. Outside of 2011, he's just not that great. Why do people act as if he's the second coming?

 

The Rays would get three years of a younger player in Span for the same price as two years of Shields. Why would it take so much more than Span (whose WAR is higher, though position vs. pitcher WAR is specious at best) to lure Shields away from the Rays?

 

It seems to me as if Shields has a "Greinke Halo" around him. People remember one great season and fail to look more closely to see that those years were aberrations, not the norm. The guy is running largely on a name, not actual performance.

 

I'm assuming I'm included in the "people" you're quoting because I did mention giving up Parm in addition to Span for Shields. I just wanted to say that I actually am not only looking at stats. I watch a lot of baseball. I'm a business owner with a lot of free time, so I catch a lot of games and the Rays are what I guess you would call my secondary team, cause I love underdogs.

 

Shields is the definition of an ace, and that's why he's been the ace down in Tampa for years. He's going to take the ball every 5th day and get you to the 6th inning at the minimum (more likely longer) in every single start, literally. He stays deep into the game, even in high leverage situations. He is not only a leader of the pitching staff, but a leader in the clubhouse. Teammates absolutely love the guy. He also pitches in the AL east, and I'm sure would be happy to see more of the Indians and Royals instead of the Yankees and Red Sox year in and year out.

 

As far as stats go, his are trending up. He's coming off the 2 best years of his career including 448 SO and a ridiculous 477 IP. Keep in mind Sabathia didn't really fully figure it out til his 6th and 7th year as well, which is my best comparison to who Shields is. I'm not saying he's as good but he's also a workhorse that you can rely on for 200+ IP (6 years in a row), a leader and a guy who wants the ball in the biggest games. I watched his last game of the season.. Complete game 2 hitter with 15 SO and 0 BB with their season on the line.. Just reminded me of why they call him "Big game James".

 

Maybe Span for Shields is a fair deal, I don't know, I'm not a GM.. but I think you are undervaluing him by the comments made about him. His performance is what I'm buying not his name.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm assuming I'm included in the "people" you're quoting because I did mention giving up Parm in addition to Span for Shields. I just wanted to say that I actually am not only looking at stats. I watch a lot of baseball. I'm a business owner with a lot of free time, so I catch a lot of games and the Rays are what I guess you would call my secondary team, cause I love underdogs.

 

Shields is the definition of an ace, and that's why he's been the ace down in Tampa for years. He's going to take the ball every 5th day and get you to the 6th inning at the minimum (more likely longer) in every single start, literally. He stays deep into the game, even in high leverage situations. He is not only a leader of the pitching staff, but a leader in the clubhouse. Teammates absolutely love the guy. He also pitches in the AL east, and I'm sure would be happy to see more of the Indians and Royals instead of the Yankees and Red Sox year in and year out.

 

As far as stats go, his are trending up. He's coming off the 2 best years of his career including 448 SO and a ridiculous 477 IP. Keep in mind Sabathia didn't really fully figure it out til his 6th and 7th year as well, which is my best comparison to who Shields is. I'm not saying he's as good but he's also a workhorse that you can rely on for 200+ IP (6 years in a row), a leader and a guy who wants the ball in the biggest games. I watched his last game of the season.. Complete game 2 hitter with 15 SO and 0 BB with their season on the line.. Just reminded me of why they call him "Big game James".

 

Maybe Span for Shields is a fair deal, I don't know, I'm not a GM.. but I think you are undervaluing him by the comments made about him. His performance is what I'm buying not his name.

 

Shields and Sabathia aren't even close to the same player. Sabathia is one year older yet has pitched 1100 more innings. Sabathia also has a career ERA+ of 122 to Shields' 107.

 

Outside of being stupid-reliable, there just isn't much about Shields to rave about. Yes, he's a good pitcher. Yes, he's reliable. But outside of 2011 and 2008, he's been just a little better than the AL average. He's also going into his age 31 season and will be paid over $20m in the next two years. That's not a guy you loot the farm to pick up. You can spend that same $20m to go get a guy like Edwin Jackson (plus another $10-12m for a third year) without giving up anyone and Jackson is two years younger than Shields.

[Willihammer]

Yes Shields has been an ace for the past 6 sesaons, no question. However he is on the wrong side of thirty, and has thrown a ton of pitches in his career. He regularly goes 120+ pitches/start. However his velocity is still good, it has actually improved his last 2 seasons. Which is a bonus owing to the fact that his strongest pitches are his curveball and changeup. Its tough to put a price on that in terms of prospects, but there is little reason to suggest that the Rays would be interested in Span. They would more likely want Revere, who is under team control for several years and plays premium defense, can steal, bunt, etc. He is pretty much the ideal small market player, and fills a weakness in the current offense - ie. inability to convert hit and runs due to high strikeouts up and down the Rays lineup. Revere for Shields should get everyone interested, provided the Pohlads are willing to pay for both Span and Shields.

[Willihammer]

Shields is case study #1 on the weakness of ERA (or ERA+) as a statistic

 

edit: I would say that there has probably been a measurable benefit to his career numbers owing to the efficacy of Tampa's shifting scheme, which benefits the entire staff - something he obviously would lose in Minnesota (in his first year anyway).

[JP3700]

 

Shields and Sabathia aren't even close to the same player. Sabathia is one year older yet has pitched 1100 more innings. Sabathia also has a career ERA+ of 122 to Shields' 107.

 

Outside of being stupid-reliable, there just isn't much about Shields to rave about. Yes, he's a good pitcher. Yes, he's reliable. But outside of 2011 and 2008, he's been just a little better than the AL average. He's also going into his age 31 season and will be paid over $20m in the next two years. That's not a guy you loot the farm to pick up. You can spend that same $20m to go get a guy like Edwin Jackson (plus another $10-12m for a third year) without giving up anyone and Jackson is two years younger than Shields.

 

I guess you failed to read where I said he's not as good as Sabathia. My comparison is to the fact that he is a workhorse, a leader and that his 6th and 7th seasons in the big leagues are where his numbers started trending up, all similar to Shields. Is it not possible that Shields is becoming a better pitcher over time as Sabathia has?

 

He's only had one bad season in 6+ years in the league.. Even Verlander had a bad year. He's struck out 450 guys in the last 2 years and has one of if not the best change ups in the league. He is much much better than "just a little better than AL average".